Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 1/27/25

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone. We have a light chat queue today, so I’m gonna try something new and go faster, but try to get to almost all the questions

Ben Clemens: So apologies in advance if I don’t stick with it but as of now, I’m going for an hour long lightning round. Your voice will (almost certainly) be heard!

Justin: Why was Jack Suwinski pretty good in 23 and pretty awful in 24?

Ben Clemens: variancde is wild

Ben Clemens: also I think that he spiked pretty much everything at the highest percentile in ’23

Ben Clemens: played way better than projections or minor league track record would suggest pretty much everywhere

Ben Clemens: sometimes you have a career year

Craig: I now see why Rooker took $60M 3 years away when Santander got $68M at the same age as a free agent

Ben Clemens: AGreed. A bit surprised by the Santander deal

diadem: What were Yamamoto and Sasaki”s health records in Japan? Any red flags?

Ben Clemens: Yamamoto, not aware of a ton. Sasaki, extensive. You can read Eric’s various reports but he had plenty of injuries and abbreviated playing time concerns

drplantwrench: padres are reportedly making Michael King available. seems like they need a LFer.  would Taylor Ward for King be feasible as a foundation for a trade?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think that’s the kind of guy they’re targeting, I think they’d want either more impact or more team control

James: How do you see the AL West shaking out, based on where the team’s are right now?

Ben Clemens: Rangers/M’s/A’s/Stros/Angels

drplantwrench: am i a being a naive angels fan or is it not unreasonable to talk myself into the value of a 1-3 year contract with alonso with some team options? even if that means havoc for the roster construction?

Ben Clemens: I’m writing about Alonso contract options right now

Ben Clemens: I mean… I’d do that

splat_edc: What are your go to’s when looking at prospect stats (especially those in levels w/o statcast)?

Ben Clemens: I think that’s too complex of a question to answer in a chat, to be honest

Ben Clemens: As a rule of thumb, the lower level and younger the prospectds are, the more I care about contact metrics

Ben Clemens: If you’re striking out 30% of the time in A ball at 20, you probably can’t hit major league pitching

Ben Clemens: the older and closer to the bigs they get, the more I care about power and just overall production

Ben Clemens: as for pitchers… I don’t have a good heuristic

James: Why do you think Mariano Rivera went unanimously but Ichiro and Jeter fell one vote shy? Did all the writers who said they wouldn’t vote for anyone from the steroid era die off?

Ben Clemens: Truly no idea and I am annoyed that this one anonymous guy gets a news cycle

Ben Clemens: what a dummy that voter is to not think Ichiro is a hall of famer

drplantwrench: oh also hi ben! hope you’re doing well <3

Ben Clemens: hello! I’m doing great, wonderful week and January has been fun

Jackson: There’s no way the Phillies are done tinkering with their outfield right? The offseason pitching moves were fine, but as a contending team with a closing window I am confused as to why they think Kepler is the answer

Ben Clemens: Yeah…. I think they’re done, but I don’t think they should be

James: When does MLB hit the panic button on John Fisher and the A’s stadium situation? There’s been zero sign of investors willing to join his Vegas endeavor and I doubt he’s willing/able to handle the stadium financing himself. If there is no movement by the end of the year, does MLB push him to sell?

Ben Clemens: I think that if we’ve learned anything in recent years, it’s that baseball does not want to push Fisher to sell

Ben Clemens: like, what makes you think this would be the last straw?

Bullock’s: I’m still in the bargaining stage of processing my Orioles’ offseason.  So: if the Orioles still had Connor Norby, would he have been enough to headline a trade for Luis Castillo?  Or was Mayo always the minimum?

Ben Clemens: I think that Mayo was probably always the minimum, tbh. But I don’t know how the M’s feel about Norby in particular so who knows

Sodo Mojo: It feels like the Mariners either lacked a plan this off season or dramatically over valued its assets.  This is the first off season I’ve seen from Dipoto where he appears to be just sitting on his hands.  Is this an overly harsh assessment and are their reasons to hope they won’t squander this window?

Ben Clemens: I think that the way this works out well for them is if they’re right

Ben Clemens: if pitchers really are this mujch more valuable than everyone else with team control, and they can actually hit on a few pitchers

Ben Clemens: hitters* rather

Ben Clemens: Basically, the M’s have been tilting towards a worldview of “we value pitchers incredibly highly and aside from Julio just invest the scraps in hitters” from both a trade and free agency perspective

Ben Clemens: if that worldview is right? they’ll do well

Ben Clemens: so far, they haven’t been right. They’ve hoarded these pitchers and while they pitch well, they haven’t hit enough for it to work

Ben: Can the Twins get Cease and dump Vasquez’ salary without giving up Jenkins or Rodriguez?

Matt: What do you see the Twins doing this offseason? It seems they have no clear holes to fill and limited payroll space, but I can’t imagine them just running it back with the same crew.

Matt: Cease to the Twins for Vazquez, Larnach, SWR, and Andrew Morris. Who says no?

Ben Clemens: uh…. the Padres say no here almost for sure. I like SWR alright but he’s a mid rotation guy really. and aside from that, there’s not much here for the Padres

Ben Clemens: Preller is the king of trading five nickels for a quarter

Ben Clemens: he doesn’t like to go the other way in deals

Caleb: Ryan Pressly – solid back-end reliever or overpaid low-to-mid leverage guy? The Astros covering $5.5MM tells me it may be closer to the latter

Ben Clemens: I think it’s somewhere in between, but i think a lot of the issue here is that the Astros are cutting budget and downsizing, and he wasn’t being maximized b/c they spent so much other money on relievers

Ben Clemens: that plus the no trade clause made a trade tricky, but they seem to be prioritizing money out the door

Ben Clemens: obviously with relievers it’s always a crapshoot, you never know if they’re cooked or just had a down month

Ben Clemens: but well, would you really rather give 1/9 to Michael Soroka than Pressly? What about 1/7 to Paul Sewald? I think these are of a piece

Ben Clemens: Also: you guys are doing too well at submitting questions, I can’t speed round this whole thing, but I’m gonna keep trying as much as possible

comish4lif: Is the Nats bullpen the worst bullpen in the NL?
Or, is it exactly the type of bullpen that exceeds expectations?

Ben Clemens: ask me again in six months

Ben Clemens: in other words, bullpens are hard to predict

Joe: It looks like Baseball Trade Values estimate is the rest of Luis Castillo’s contract is worth around only about $7M surplus value, and that on Baltimore guys like Mountcastle, Urias or Kremer INDIVIDUALLY have similar values, implying their model would accept 1:1 trades within that group.   How would you assess or critique those readouts for real life?

Ben Clemens: baseball trade values doesn’t work

Ben Clemens: it doesn’t model real life trades or behavior all that well

Ben Clemens: i would basically say: stop using those readouts, and start thinking about trades critically from a perspective of supply, demand, and value above replacement

Ben Clemens: to paraphrase Kanye West, there’s a thousand Mountcastles, there’s only one ace

Ben Clemens: Castillo is a much more standout player than Mountcastle relative to the field at his position,a nd if your model says they’re the same, it’s probably wrong

Dan’l: Do you buy the messaging out of the Cards FO? Mo’ wants to leave a clean slate for Bloom; so why didn’t they let Bloom take over before this offseason (or walk down the hall and ask Bloom what he wants)? Or did they foresee a partial sell-off this offseason, but no one wanted to leave and now they’re stuck…

Ben Clemens: I think it’s kinda reasonable; i think a decent amount of it is to insulate Bloom from growing pains

Ben Clemens: they thought this offseason would be a bit more of a downturn than it was, but Arenado used his no trade clause after asking to get dealt so they got whipsawed

Guest: Is there any good writing that you or another esteemed author has done on the time value of WAR? How much WAR is 3 WAR one year from now worth?

Ben Clemens: I haven’t seen any writing about it but I apply some linear discounting when I’m doing trade value stuff

Ben Clemens: that said, WAR is constant at 1,000 per year

Ben Clemens: so like… my discounting is only about teams caring more about the present and everything in the future, both costs and benefits, being discounted

Bullock’s: I don’t know how to look at a “really cannot hit a home run but elite speed and defense” prospect and tell whether he could have a great career like Juan Pierre, carve a spot for a few years like Ben Revere, or just get stuck as 4th/5th OF because major league pitchers just will not walk a guy that can’t hurt them.

Ben Clemens: Here’s the thing: scouts don’t either

Ben Clemens: I have some fun research coming for Prospects Week that I think will make this point with data

Nickwid: What do you think would be a good plan for the yankees to address their 2b/3b issue?

Ben Clemens: sign Alex Bregman

Ross: Such a frustrating offseason for the Mariners. Do you see any realistic path to build a division winner with reportedly only around $11 million left to spend?

Ben Clemens: and I say this as someone who picked the M’s to win the west in 2024

Ben Clemens: their best chance is that baseball is really variable and hard to predict, and the Astros sure look weaker

comish4lif: “Best fans in baseball” – I cannot be the only with a little schadenfreude over the Cardinals inability to trade Arenado or Helsley (so far)?

Ben Clemens: I was never a big fan of the BFIB moniker even at the peak of my Cards fandom

Isolated Thinker: The Padres are built to win now and should be in the wild card mix.  The money struggles are overblown.  Makes no sense to trade Cease now.  If you’re out of it in June, then we can talk trade.  Agree?

Ben Clemens: They traded Soto last year

Ben Clemens: AJ likes to trade

Ben Clemens: I think that it’s reasonable to be in the market listening, I suspect that Cease is only getting traded if someone needs a pitcher BADLY

Ben Clemens: and that if the Padres do it, they’ll pivot some of the pieces acquired in that trade into win-now stuff

Ben Clemens: like the Soto trade, basically

Nate: To piggyback on the AL west question…that down on the Astros now, huh?

Ben Clemens: I look at this roster and go huh, what parts do I think are great

Ben Clemens: and it’s like… Yordan? I’m into Yainer. Good bullpen. I think Altuve can keep fighting aging

Ben Clemens: but they’re running out just okay players at like 4 of 5 rotation spots, four-ish lineup spots

Ben Clemens: their bench is awful

Ben Clemens: they need to make some additions

Guest: How much of this Padres ownership lawsuit is affecting Preller’s ability to make moves?

Ben Clemens: I have no idea and honestly, we won’t hear until it’s over

Connor: With their budget constraints, any chance a team can pull Tatis from the Padres?

Davey D: Do teams just not value the Mariners pitching very highly? The ask of Julio or Kirby for a very mid player like Bohm was really surprising.

Ben Clemens: um…. yeah that wasn’t a very reasonable ask, I agree

Ben Clemens: I think that it’s a bit of both. The M’s have incredibly high valuations on their pitchers, and teams are clearly much lower than them. But Bohm for Kirby is not a serious person’s offer

Booney: How do you feel about the front office situation in St. Louis with Chaim Bloom as the PBOPS in waiting? I’ve never seen an arrangement like this and it’s weird to think Mozeliak would retain full control with Bloom already in the org.

Ben Clemens: I think that using consensus to make decisions is underrate

Ben Clemens: and that the Cards’ setup probably works just fine. I think that having Bloom in the org for a year to see if he gelled with people first was good too

Ben Clemens: My most successful team working environments have involved plenty of delegation of responsibility and overlapping mandates

Jay: Make the Pirates spend more.

Ben Clemens: yeah….. it’s wild

Maddoning: Was the Cubs DFA of Michael Arias surprising?  He was #11 on their prospect list

Ben Clemens: my understanding is that it’s a weird contractual thing

Ben Clemens: surprising but they thought he’d sign a 2025 contract and they could outright him to the minors

Ben Clemens: he didn’t, and you can’t assign a player without a 2025 contract signed to the minors

Ben Clemens: so they had to trade or release him

Theo be Praised: I am skeptical that Michael Busch will repeat his rookie season.  Should I be?

Doug: What is a sample Cease trade that still allows the Padres to still compete in 25?

Ben Clemens: Cease for a deal headed by Enrique Bradfield Jr. and one ML Oriole who can contribute, and then a knock-on trade to address pitching depth

Maddoning: It seems like the league is not 100% buying into Jack Flaherty’s 2024; he wasn’t very good before last year.  Is that what you’re hearing?  Slow market for him….

Ben Clemens: yeah I think more or less teams are buying more into the middle of his career than the bookeneds

Ben Clemens: I liked Rosen’s article about how his fastball is very mid

James: Over/under 0.5 playoff appearances by the Pirates while Skenes is a Pirate

JR: You know the Astros added Paredes and Walker, right?

Ben Clemens: Believe it or not, I, the writer who is most obsessed with Isaac Paredes of all writers, saw that one

Ben Clemens: I think that’s a pretty mid team, and they randomly subtracted Kyle Tucker in a year where they desperately want to compete

Jeb: easy answer, Doug. Cease for Adley and Gunnar.

Jeb: oh, toss in Jackson to avoid making it lopsided. almost missed that

Les Expos: Do you see any legs to the Jays possibly signing Alonso?

Ben Clemens: Oh, I kinda like that

Bullock’s: Research idea I would love to see: is it more likely to produce a championship with 6 years of true-talent 87 win team or 4 years of a true-talent 93 win team?  2 years of a true-talent 97 win team?  I wish to quantify how annoyed to be at the GMs of Baltimore, Seattle, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Tampa, Cleveland, and Minnesota.

Ben Clemens: Great call, and I wrote this down to try later

Kevin: As a fan of baseball talk me into the product being worthwhile when 75% of the teams aren’t incentivized to materially improve.

Ben Clemens: I’m actually having this debate with a lot of friends on the side right now

Ben Clemens: here’s my argument: that’s true of every profesisonal sport

Ben Clemens: so you should just pick the one you enjoy

Ben Clemens: like, you want to escape a world of haves and have nots by going to the NFL?

Ben Clemens: hope you enjoy Pat Mahomes

Ben Clemens: soccer? Hope you enjoy that literally teams are’nt playing the same game

LimuEmu: Will the Tigers exceed their 2024 win total or will the Plexiglass Principle result in regression?

Ben Clemens: i think plexiglass principle here, sadly

Kevin: But to counter your NFL argument – see Jayden Daniels

Ben Clemens: corbin carroll made the WS in his rookie year

Ben Clemens: football is hegemonic

Ben Clemens: basketball, LeBron flies around the country making NBA finals

Ben Clemens: though to be fair it’s in a fun transitional period right now

Ben Clemens: I’m sympathetic to the idea that baseball could use more parity

Ben Clemens: all sports could use more parity

Ben Clemens: a lot of that invovles the owners trying

DeeBo: How much do Vladdy Jr and Kyle Tucker break the bank in free agency next year? For a while it looked like Soto had re-set the entire market; but he clearly was the outlier and it looks like the rest of the market hasn’t shifted too much off previous valuations. For Tucker especially, hard to think he gets a ton more than someone like Seager or Devers got (though Devers obviously not FA)

Ben Clemens: I think that Vlad will outdo Tucker b/c I think the Jays are gonna break the bank here

Ben Clemens: but I think both will sign in that Devers area, yeah

Ben Clemens: I agree that Soto hasn’t really reset the whole market; he’s a unique case

Ben Clemens: so young, so accomplished at that age

JJ: If you had to hold one trade one from King/Cease what’s your choice?

Ben Clemens: I think I’d hold King and trade Cease but I don’t feel strongly about that

Ben Clemens: they’re both good

DJ: What is your sense of the park factors to expect in Sacramento this season?

Ben Clemens: I have it a smidge hitter friendly but with wide error bands

Ben Clemens: they’re changing stuff about it and it never played all that offensively relative to the PCL

Ben Clemens: but it’s WAY more offensively friendly than Oakland, for sure

Kevin: Right, I think the point is that in MLB because of a variety of factors – owners are incentivized to try less.  You don’t get national exposure in the NFL if your team sucks unless you’re the Cowboys.  Fun debate though.

Ben Clemens: yeah and yet, there are a huge swath of habitually bad NFL teams

Ben Clemens: also, counterpoint: the Jets are media darlings every year

Ben Clemens: but I digress

Justin: What would a salary floor need to be for you to support a salary cap, if at all?

Ben Clemens: I was thinking like a 150/200 band

Ben Clemens: that wouldn’t affect total salary outlays much

Ben Clemens: I honestly think that shortening time to free agency in conjunction wiht that would be very interesting

Bullock’s: If I’m the Orioles, I think I gotta jump on Bradfield as headliner for Cease.  Bradfield was exactly who I was thinking of when asking about no-power prospects.

Ben Clemens: i mean, who the ‘ML contributor’ in that pitch is is doing a lot of work

Ben Clemens: would you be into it if it was, i dunno, Mullins? I would be

Ben Clemens: would you be into it if it were Kjerstad? no way

Ben Clemens: so I’m not sure

Bosoxforlife: I hate to see baseball turning into the NBA or NFL where the difference between the haves and cant’s or wont’s becomes excessive. The debate about a salary cap is going to raise its ugly head in 2027 and I fear it might make 1994 look like a nice friendly chat.

Ben Clemens: yeah… I think I agree with this sentiment

Ben Clemens: I think the blame lies squarely on the shoulders of Bob Nutting

Ben Clemens: but I totally agree that the expansion of the top end without commensurate expansion of the low spending teams will look ugly as it continues

Phil: Do FA’s still always go to the highest bidder? OR with $$ getting so high do other factors (location, team set up/success) make it so a player may take an offer than is lower, but, a better situation/closer to home?

Ben Clemens: I think that the “let’s use city as a tiebreaker” bands are getting wider

Ben Clemens: like, I could see someone taking a $10 mil less guarantee for theh right situation

Ben Clemens: at 140 vs 150

Ben Clemens: but you don’t do that if it’s 15 million vs 10 million

Ben Clemens: so the money getting bigger increases quality of life/non-monetary meaning, for sure

comish4lif: While were fixing baseball – I’d like to see some type of “Larry Byrd Rule” in MLB.

Ben Clemens: like a luxury tax exemption?

Ben Clemens: I don’t quite get it

Ben Clemens: only a handful of teams pay the tax

Starling Silver: Will the Mets find a taker for Starling Marte if they pay down a big chunk of his salary?   Would be an upgrade for several teams unwilling to spend.  Or do the Mets like the idea of a Winker/Marte DH platoon?

Ben Clemens: I…. don’t think they would?

Ben Clemens: I’m wondering this question myself b/c I was writing about sudden declines today

Ben Clemens: like… we’re projecting him for 1 WAR/600

Ben Clemens: that’s ABOVE what he’s produced in the last two years

Matt: No question, just want to thank you for these chats and all of the great work you and the team do!

Ben Clemens: well thank you very much

Ben Clemens: I think that FG has been killing it in the last year, personallyu

splat_edc: Best meal you’ve whipped up recently?

Ben Clemens: We made a sandwich that was simple and yet delicious. blackened chicken breast (made our own blackening mix, you can look up recipes but it’s pretty simple)

Ben Clemens: shaved some carrots, few leaves of arugula, dijon mustard

Ben Clemens: absolutely outstanding

comish4lif: In my mind, the Larry Byrd Rule gave teams some relief (NBA money) in the form of a league discount to resign their own players (which is very different from what the NBA actually did).

Ben Clemens: oh yeah. that version, where the revenue sharing pool chips in money to help teams resign players, would be interesting

Ben Clemens: like imagine if the revenue sharing pool, instead of being split among small-market teams, was only earmarked for deals

Ben Clemens: like it’s not a check we cut to you…. we’ll help you c ut some checks to star players, but you never see the money

Colton: Have you or anyone on the staff done a deep dive of Carroll’s lack of production from the shoulder pop on July 6th last year to this July 6th this year? He was slightly below average in the year in between and outside of that time period he’s been a top 5 player in baseball production wise

Ben Clemens: well, I shoved him up the trade value list even when he was on that one-year slump

Ben Clemens: I did plenty of private research on it, is what I’ll say

Ben Clemens: but eh, never wrote it up and the time has passed

Colton: Should add, July 6, 2023 to July 6, 2024 is the parameters

Bobbers: When’s the last time MLB had something like a Jimmy Butler situation?

Ben Clemens: maybe Operation Shutdown with Derek Bell?

Ben Clemens: I love this quote still

Ben Clemens: “If it ain’t settled with me out there, then they can trade me,” Bell said. “I ain’t going out there to hurt myself in spring training battling for a job. If it is (open competition), then I’m going into Operation Shutdown.”

spaceman: Corbin Burnes just took a lower deal to be an arizona with his family a month and a half ago.

Bencle Mens: Are the cardinals too much in limbo? they haven’t done anything to rebuild and haven’t signed an OF to help contend.

Ben Clemens: I think that they’re doing it in a Cards-y way as always. slow and steady. I think it is way more about not investing more in the major league team and instead plowing what they do invest into the minors

Ben Clemens: i mean, that might be a bummer. but I hope they go about it full bore

DeeBo: How much if anything are you hearing about teams experimenting with AI in scouting, prospect grades, draft modeling, etc.?

Ben Clemens: I’m not hearing anything but I’m absolutely sure it’s happening

Reds Enjoyer: Who will be the best player in 2025 that played zero or basically zero games last year and why is it Matt McLain?

Ben Clemens: I think he might be my pick

Ben Clemens: I’m a huge McLain fan

md: does a Jack Flaherty get signed before spring training, and if a player like that doesn’t, what ends up happening during the season? discount? flyer when everyone’s elbow explodes? can’t imagine a dude like that even with a mid fastball doesn’t get a pitcher of coffee

Ben Clemens: Look at Montgomery last year, Snell, Kimbrel a few years ago

Ben Clemens: generally it’s not about getting an offer, it’s about the player not liking the offer

Ben Clemens: and that may be right on the player’s side, to be clear

Ben Clemens: but like… if Flaherty decided today “I’ll take a one-year deal and play wherever” he’d have a deal tomorrow

Frank Trauffaut: Do you think Kyle Hart will get an MLB deal? Any other MLB/KBO stragglers?

Ben Clemens: I think he will

Ben Clemens: But a little less confident thanks to the complete lack of smoke on that front

Bullock’s: Does the Soto deal mean that MVP-caliber young guys won’t be signing extensions for anything less than $400M now?  Like, are the deals that JRod and Witt signed already out of date as comps for Henderson / de la Cruz / Merrill?

Ben Clemens: I do think so, yeah…. or at least, for hte guys who are up at 20, their expected value has changed meaningfully

Ben Clemens: to be fair I htink that both Witt and JRod signed are good examples of how these deals should go in the future though

Ben Clemens: they’re both kinda funky and structured

Ben Clemens: particularly JRod’s, tbh. with the escalators based on performance

Ryle Tuckly: How deep of a run in the playoffs do you think Cubs fans can reasonably expect? WS contenders?

Ben Clemens: i mean, the median expectation has to be ‘miss playoffs’

Ben Clemens: but probably not by a ton

Ben Clemens: like, every playoff team is a WS contender. I think that the Cubs are the second-best team in the Central, probably not a team that’s gonna get a bye though

Colton: That’s fair, I know you do a ton of research on different things so I was more curious if you had looked into it and decided there wasn’t enough there for a full article or if it had been something that was missed. I remember when the swing happened and audibly gasped because I thought he ripped it again like he did in the minors

Ben Clemens: oh yeah… that injury happened while I was writing up the 2023 trade value series but hadn’t locked it in hyet

Ben Clemens: and I remember talking to Meg about it for a long time

Ben Clemens: we were very concerned that he’d just miss a year

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: On which team does Arraez fit best? Mariners?

Ben Clemens: I think the Mariners are actually a really bad fit for him

Ben Clemens: they don’t have any baserunners for him to drive in… and no power hitters to score him when he’s on base

Ben Clemens: singles hitters are at their best on teams that have tons of traffic on the bases

Ben Clemens: how about Arizona?

Ben Clemens: team full of speedsters

Bosoxforlife: Are the Orioles actually only the third best team in the AL East? They don’t seem to be getting much from their very highly touted crop of prospects and it looks like their window is closing before it even got opened.

Ben Clemens: well, to be fair, one of their highly touted crop of prospects is Gunnar Henderson

Ben Clemens: and that guy is amazing

Ben Clemens: I think that the wave of reinforcements that was supposed to arrive in 2024 has even been mostly a success… Cowser popped and Westburg wasn’t a rookie but still was a young contributor who took a step forward

Ben Clemens: I think the baseball analysis community got into “the O’s will have another mega prospect b/c they always do” mode after Adley and Gunnar hit. They’ve still had an incredibly successful run of converting prospects into big league contributors

Ben Clemens: I think what we’re really seeing here is that you need some outside assistance to put those teams over the top even if you’re hitting at hte highest rate imaginable

Ben Clemens: like, no team in baseball has more superstar-prospects-turned-ML-stars than the O’s, to my eye

Ben Clemens: but when your marquee free agent moves are like Tyler O’Neill, Charlie Morton, Gary Sanchez

Ben Clemens: it’s just very hard to make a championship level team exclusively out of internal options, even if you go full tank rebuild to juice the farm

Ben Clemens: there are 30 teams producing talent. When you’re in a win-now phase, not dipping outside your own team’s talent pool to enhance the squad is a bad call

RH: Where do you want Arenado to start the year?

Ben Clemens: okay, this is maybe a little uncharitable of me

Ben Clemens: but I’m pretty over Arenado’s grandstanding

Ben Clemens: going from Cardinal for life to I just want to play for a winner, get me out of here, to refusing a trade!

Ben Clemens: b/c he “wanted to let the market develop”

Ben Clemens: sir, you are under contract

Ben Clemens: you had last year to do that if you wanted to, when you negotiated for an opt out

Ben Clemens: I think him ending up on the Cards and just being a huge grump about it

Ben Clemens: when they’d agreed to a deal to send him to one of the two most successful teams of hte last decade

Ben Clemens: would just be hilarious

Rickey says: Why don’t we see more hitters attempt the extreme crouch batting stance to shrink the strike zone ala Rickey Henderson?  I would think players struggling in the minors for years have nothing to lose to at least try it.

Ben Clemens: well, as I understand it, the minor league strike zone is now defined by your height

Ben Clemens: so, it would be counterproductive

Ben Clemens: and I think that’s good!

Ben Clemens: two guys who are 6’0″ each shouldn’t have wildly different strike zones b/c one stands stupidly

AA: Often I see baseball writers say things to the extent of, “Don’t get mad at the Dodgers/Mets/Yankees ownership, get mad at the owners who sit on their piles of money.” There’s an implicit argument that there’s something fans should do to hold those owners accountable. Given the percentage of people who’ll show up to or put on a game regardless of whether the team’s any good or not, what do you think fans can do (if anything) to pressure those owners beyond calling them cheap on Twitter?

Ben Clemens: sadly, I don’t really

Ben Clemens: the system is not set up in a way where there’s an effective way to push back on these guys

Ben Clemens: their money is guaranteed by the league, their fanbase doesn’t matter all that much

Ben Clemens: I wish taht weren’t the case, I just don’t see a good way to do anything

Alec: If a deadline to sign free agents were put in place, would it be more beneficial for players (teams have to get to BAFO sooner, bids increase) or owners (teams collectively offer less rich deals with shorter window of back-and-forth)? Feels like it would definitely be pro-fan

Ben Clemens: I think that it would be pretty neutral

Ben Clemens: and just compress things down

Justin: What’s one thing that you think teams (and / or fangraphs nerds) rightfully value that your casual fan really doesnt?   my guess is “the value of a 40 man roster spot”.

Ben Clemens: yeah, a lot of roster gimmickry

Ben Clemens: I mean, still the value of a walk

Ben Clemens: OBP is a good stat

Ben Clemens: that is still definitely undervalued

Gabe: Two players that struggled in 2024. Noelvi Marte and Jordan Walker. Is there still hope?

Tony LaRussa: Jordan Walker, any chance he lives up to expectations? Or enough sample to call him a bust? He hit poorly in the minors after being sent down

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna give both another year

Ben Clemens: but I’m down on each of them a TON

Ben Clemens: Walker’s minor league season was a really bad sign to me

Ben Clemens: look at ZiPS today… ew

Ben Clemens: and Marte, he’s in a tough spot b/c he’ll lose his job if he’s bad

Something clever: Overall opinion on AJ Preller’s entire body of work going back to when he was first hired in SD?

Ben Clemens: high risk, high reward, I’d be happy to have him GM my team b/c baseball is about entertainment and he produces it

Stearns vs Boras: Which side do you lean towards:  Pete Alonso is only worth the current market value of 1B hence the 3/70 offer or Pete is one of a select few players in MLB with a legit 50HR ceiling and should be paid above his perceived market value.

Ben Clemens: I’m writing an article about this literally right now

Ben Clemens: or well, no, I was writing it at 10:59 and I’ll start again when the chat is over

Ben Clemens: so…. stay tuned and read what I think tomorrow

Quinn: You mentioned Enrique Bradfield for the Padres in a Cease deal. You think he’s ready

Ben Clemens: but I’m not the prospect guy, I’d say ask Eric

Colton K: What is your fix for the Yankees at 2B/3B? I’ve been clamoring for them to sign Ha-Seong Kim all off-season. Let Peraza play there until Kim comes back from injury, keep Chisholm at 3B.

spaceman: Optionable relievers – I think a lot of casual fans don’t understand how valuable optionable relievers are.

Ben Clemens: yeah. that was one i considered before I decided OBP was more fundamental

Ben Clemens: but yeah, that’s ‘roster gimmickry’ imo

Ben Clemens: but very important

Luis: Why have you generally been lower than consensus on Jackson Holliday?

Ben Clemens: good question

Ben Clemens: I think that a lot of his projection was pretty tools-focused, I didn’t love how much he was striking out in the low minors

Ben Clemens: As I mentioned up above, I care a lot about contact metrics in the low minors

Ben Clemens: But I think also, I just am a lot more willing to accept that prospects bust than your average prognosticator

Ben Clemens: and the hype around Holliday was at can’t-miss, surefire levels

Ben Clemens: people comparing him to the best players in baseball before he’d played in the majors

Ben Clemens: so I’m just always gonna be a little lwoer than consensus when there hasn’t been any production

spaceman: the aforementioned Orioles’ new owner publicly calling for a salary cap you know he’s not spending any money he doesn’t *have* to

Ben Clemens: I didn’t say that but dang

malcolm: The Padres sure seem like they’ll want to move a high few high salary players before the season starts – any guesses on who’s most likely to be sent away?

Ben Clemens: I’m still thinking Cease because the market for top tier pitching is hot

WAR by age: Someone on baseball reddit made a chart of the most WAR at each age (active), and the only one under age 28 with more than 25 WAR was Soto at 36. But then I looked it up, and, yes, he’s “old,” but Judge has 16 more WAR in all of 61 more games played. That’s gonna be a hell of a peak-heavy HOF case when all is said and done.

Ben Clemens: I think Judge is a Hall of Famer

Ben Clemens: with a very weird shape for SURE

Red Sawks: Will the Red Sox try to flip Vaughn Grissom if indeed Kristian Campbell gets the 2B job?   Why exactly did they trade Sale for him if he is not going to get an opportunity?

Ben Clemens: I mean, plans change right?

Ben Clemens: they traded for him b/c they thought he’d be an everyday player in 2024

Ben Clemens: heck, I liked the trade for them. I think he’s a good fit for Fenway

Ben Clemens: but you have to adjust to the facts on the ground, and he was bad in limited time and now they’re getting crowded

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll find a way to try him out somewhere this year

Ben Clemens: but y eah, the leash was shorter than I expected

LimuEmu: Do you see Shota Imanaga as a likely candidate for regression given his fly ball heavy approach, especially since Wrigley played unusually pitcher friendly in 2024?

Ben Clemens: not really, b/c he gave up a ton of dingers

Ben Clemens: I think the big reason I’d expect regression in run prevention is that he had an unusually high strand rate

Ben Clemens: but his xFIP (league average home run rate applied to fly balls) was lower than his FIP

Ben Clemens: and in watching him, I felt like that fly ball tendency was keenly felt and a reason he didn’t do better

Ben Clemens: like, you can imagine a season where he spikes a very low HR/FB rate and is AMAZING

Ben Clemens: but that wasn’t 2024

Ben Clemens: he was just very good in a way that looks mostly repeatable to me

Mr. E: How’s the progress coming on the fielding metrics article?

Ben Clemens: mmmm….. sidelined until at least March b/c I got into free agent stuff and it seems like a lot of people are changing defensive metrics or adding new stuff

Ben Clemens: now I’m onto prospect stuff

Ben Clemens: somehow this offseason has been busy

Vladdy Jr: If I have a year like my 2023 stats, will I regret turning down the Jays extension offer?

Ben Clemens: sure. but if you have a year like your 2024 stats, you’ll feel like a genius

Bighen: Why don’t the Mets just announce what they’ve offered Alonso.  4 years $100M should work for both sides.  And tell boras to beat it.

Dodgers fan: Will we see the free spending padres ever returning? I enjoy the SD/LA rivalry and hate seeing the padres have to trade off Cease or King and not sign any big free agents

Ben Clemens: I think it’s definitely possible

Ben Clemens: the succession squabble there is making everything very confusing

Ben Clemens: but to be fair, the Padres are still running a fairly large payroll for 2025

Ben Clemens: 9th in baseball, second in the NLW

Ben Clemens: that should make Giants fans VERY unhappy, btw

MLB fan: will we see mlb expansion soon or will they use Nashville as ransom for more tax payer funds  in TB?

Ben Clemens: por que no los dos

Alf: A premise that underlies some of the salary cap arguments is that teams should be profitable, which I have always questioned. Do you think the sport can be healthy if teams are money-losing toys for billionaires?

Ben Clemens: I tend to agree, and also, at least backward looking, these teams have all been outrageously talented

Ben Clemens: whoops, outrageously profitable

LenFuego: I guess 6 years ago the Mets should have kept Alonso in the minors for a few weeks (or whatever it took) to keep him from accruing that league year of service time?  I hear all the ‘manipulating service time’ talk and I have to laugh at the naivete.

Ben Clemens: The Alonso one was kinda silly, I agree, I thought the Mets mostly did well by him. But uh…. I don’t see how that has any bearing on the present

Ben Clemens: like… they’d have more leverage if they’d behaved differently in the past, for sure

Ben Clemens: that different behavior would have been anti-competitive, making their team worse on purpose that year

Trent: Is Preller on the hot seat if the Padres play .500 ball this year?

Theo be Praised: Seems like the Cubs went for innings volume by signing Boyd ($15 mil) and Rea ($5 mil), trading for Pressly ($8.5 mil cost).  Would they have been better served consolidating spend to 1 high-end pitcher?

Ben Clemens: I liked their plan actually

Ben Clemens: I think that the way the market broke this year, the best place to get pitching was the middle

Ben Clemens: I think that in previous years, they’ve gone that way too much. Jameson Taillon, hello

Ben Clemens: but this year was a good year to be seeking the middle

dylan carlson: mike elias free agency strategy: sign all the former cardinals outfielders

Mike Elias: Orioles offseason enough to fix postseason woes?

Ben Clemens: I mean… .they didn’t do anything, haha

Ben Clemens: they’re definitely worse than they were in 2024

Ben Clemens: I”m looking at our offseason tracker here, and yeah, Santander to TON is a downgrade, Burnes to Morton/Sugano is a downgrade, and uh….

Ben Clemens: that’s it?

Ben Clemens: if they succeed, it won’t be b/c of their offseason

Ben Clemens: it’ll be b/c their team has a ton of good players that were already on the roster

O’Honk: Did you have any thoughts on the Red Sox and Pirates swapping Nick Yorke for Quinn Priester last year ? I saw it as a challenge trade of guys with down stocks since their top 100 prospect days. But in his ranking this morning Keith Law actually had Yorke still in the mid 50s.

Ben Clemens: I have some thoughts, but I don’t think they’re particualrly wise. I’m a big Yorke guy b/c he had an awesome card in Out of the Park a few years ago

Ben Clemens: and I’m down on Priester b/c I have pitching prospect fatigue

Preller for a day: Would you trade King, Cease, and Arraez and use the trade returns + savings to fill holes? If yes, where would you spend the money?

Ben Clemens: I would trade Arraez if there were value to be had

Ben Clemens: I think he’s a properly compensated player

Ben Clemens: solid regular, not a consistent all star, spike-level All Star seasons likely. that’s what he’s getting paid

Ben Clemens: but I think teams mostly agree with my valuation and thus there probably isn’t a home run deal to be had. If there were no budget constraints, I’d basically just set high prices on my pitchers and see if teams get desperate. And otherwise, roll with the existing squad, who were quite good in 2024

J: Just throwing out there that Jameson Taillon tied Luis Castillo in WAR last year. He’s not worth that contract the next two years, but he’s been fine/

Ben Clemens: I’m probably more down on Taillon than is merited

Ben Clemens: I’d obviously prefer Castillo but Taillon isn’t bad

Ben Clemens: I think the issue is more that the Cubs have been consistently aiming for hte middle in free agency for a while

Ben Clemens: and he was a symptom

Ben Clemens: it lined up with the market this year

Ben Clemens: but that might be a broken clock being right two times a day kind of thing where they always try to get the mid pitchers, and htis year the mid pitchers are just the ones I’d want

Jaded Nats Fan: Is it time to worry about Keibert Ruiz?

Ben Clemens: No. That was 2023

Ben Clemens: It’s time to give up on Keibert Ruiz

Mike Elias: would Kjerstad, McDermott and a comp pick for Cease be fair for both teams?

Ben Clemens: I don’t know enough about McDermott to say for sure but I think it’s a little light to my eyes

Ben Clemens: but certainly in the right ballpark

Ben Clemens: I might be behind the times on McDermott, just, a 26-year-old rookie without outrageous numbers, I’m skeptical

tiaager: Bregman really going back home?

Ben Clemens: it’s gonna be weird if so

Ben Clemens: where does Paredes play?

Ben Clemens: like, the Astros need outfielders badly

Ben Clemens: it’s the weak point of their roster

Ben Clemens: and they…. traded away one of the best 5 outfielders in baseball, signed two infield corner guys, and are closing in on a third

Ben Clemens: maybe they think Yordan is an everyday LF?

Thank you for the chat!: Could the Larry Bird rule go the other way? Small market teams get to add 10% towards minimum luxury tax or something?

Ben Clemens: I don’t quite understand how this would work…. we’re saying ‘hey Pirates, if you sign Paul Skenes, we’ll let you spend very little money on the rest of the roster and not penalize you’?

Ben Clemens: that seems like a bad plan for everyone

Ben Clemens: and one that no owners would really get behind

Ben Clemens: the ones who don’t want a salary floor aren’t going to be mollified by the league saying ‘but if you sign stars to big contracts, we’ll let you ignore the floor a little’

Ben Clemens: they don’t sign stars to big contracts!

O’Honk: How do you feel about the Nats’ rebuild post-Soto? Do you believe in their emerging young core of Wood, Crews, etc.?

Ben Clemens: I’m into it for sure. Very very high on both Crews and Wood. I think that the real question is how they’re gonna transition from ‘we have some fun young players on a very bad team’ to being good

Ben Clemens: I don’t have a lot of confidence that they know how to do that, and the Lerners are spending zero dollars on the team right now

Thank you for the chat!: I don’t know if Arenado was grandstanding with the comment. He has the right to invoke the no trade and maybe didn’t want to go to Houston. He could have been echoing the front office in their feedback that opportunities he’s looking for aren’t there as of now, so may have to wait.

Ben Clemens: oh, he definitely does

Ben Clemens: and he has the right to publicly say he wants out and then invoke the no trade clause

Ben Clemens: that’s why he got the cluase

Ben Clemens: I’m not saying he broke any rules… I’m just saying it’d be funny to see him say he wants to go, have the Cards find a deal, and then not go

Bosoxforlife: The Astros sign Bregman then trade Paredes to the Red Sox. There can be no more perfect fit than Paredes, who hits nothing but flies to left in Fenway.

Ben Clemens: the main counterpoint is that maybe Houston is even better for that profile, which is why they traded for him in the first pacde

Chip: Any hesitation on Andres Munoz this year?

Ben Clemens: yes. Namely, he’s a reliever

QB: Let’s say the Astros resign Bregman, moving Paredes to 2B, Altuve to LF. How do you evaluate/quantify the value of resigning Bregman considering he moved two players off their natural position? Even if Bregman is good, it seems like it could be a net neutral

Ben Clemens: pretty in depth question for a chat but briefly, I think I’d do a chain esitmation of how much each hurts the team to play out of position

Ben Clemens: I think in this case it might actually be a lot. Altuve is declining defensively and learning a new position at his age is tough, so much of his value at second base is likely instinctual

Ben Clemens: Paredes at second? I would be covering my eyes, and I love Paredes

Ben Clemens: I think Paredes DH Yordan LF, or Paredes LF, makes more sense

Ben Clemens: particularly with the short porch

Ben Clemens: Matt, we’ve missed you

Alec: Can we resolve all the Astros hypotheticals and just collectively purchase, say, 10 million hot-and-ready pizzas so he can go to Detroit?

Ben Clemens:

tortycraig: Appreciate the comments on Cardinals FO decision-making dynamics. So much handwringing this offseason on ‘well who’s really making the calls’ and it’s like, all of them lol. Like people can make joint decisions, there can be delegation, there can be consensus etc.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’m surprised people seem so taken aback by this

Ben Clemens: I heard the announcement and was ilke oh this makes sense to me

JJ Picollo: Am I going to trade for an outfielder or is MJ Melendez going to be the starting LF for no good reason other than inertia

Ben Clemens: man…. I was first gonna say ‘but there’s no space for Melendez, who I think is decen,t on the bench’

Ben Clemens: uh, there is

Ben Clemens: that’s a dicey bench. so yes, you absolutely SHOULD

Ben Clemens: and I think that even if it’s a late-career veteran or reclamation project, something will happen

Judge: I mean yes he is very uniquely shaped

Ben Clemens: double meaning was intentional there

Mike: Who will the Dodgers trade to make room for Kirby?

James: What slash line do you see Jacob Wilson producing in a full season?

Ben Clemens: oh man…. I don’t have a strong prediction but my minor league model (retired, bless its heart) loved him at every turn

Ben Clemens: it was about predicting chances of sticking in the bigs and didn’t do translations or line projections, so ehhhh…not sure about the specifics

Ben Clemens: I’d take the under on Steamer’s 120 wRC+, which would have him as basically a perennial All Star, but maybe ZiPS and its 111 OPS+?

Ben Clemens: That’s like a borderline All Star

ML: introduce a salary cap and reduce the reserve clause to 4 years; who would say no first, the owners or MLBPA?

Ben Clemens: I think that the reserve clause is a bigger deal to them than the cap is to the players

Ben Clemens: both sides would say no, though

Robbie Boyfred: Could you see the players union agreeing to a 5th tier of luxury tax and an offseason two month signing freeze in favor of MLB adding a 27th roster spot? With modern pitcher/catcher usage and slow off season, these changes would benefit all.

Ben Clemens: I could. I don’t think that the league office would like it, though. They’re trying to fight against the way pitcher usage is gonig, an extra roster spot is a weird way to go about that

O’Honk: Brewers would be a great trade fit for the Royals if they could line up. Yelich probably better mostly DH’ing now but even so, Garrett Mitchell seems available with Chourio, Frelick, and Perkins also filling out the depth chart.

Ben Clemens: Yeah. I guess I don’t see what the Brewers want from the Royals that the Royals want to trade

Ben Clemens: but I agree with the thinking

Anselm: The Yankees seem to have some faith in Volpe/Wells/Jasson taking leaps this year, and maybe feel the same with Gil/Schmidt — while also getting a full season from Jazz, who hopefully stays healthy. Yankee fans online bemoan the team not matching $$ with LA — do you think of the team as weirdly conservative with their spending limits, or do you see some sensibility in their planning? I wish they had one more IF, but the Kim/Bregman/Arenado options all seem pretty flawed….

Ben Clemens: I think that they’re being very long-term practical at a time where they have the best player in baseball at the tail of his prime

Ben Clemens: there’s a mismatch here between how I perceive the incentives (build a great team for 2025/2026, b/c you know for sure that you have Aaron Judge playign great) and how they perceive them (build a long-term sustainable system  by not taking on any bad risks)

Ben Clemens: if I’m right, their behavior is incorrect b/c they’re not bunching up their surplus value in the years where they have a great team. if they’re right, well, they’re right

Judge: Good joke. I feel like Judge is much likelier to have a Chipper or Ortiz back half where he just hits but misses 40 g a year than suddenly becomes bad

Ben Clemens: the guy is just an elite hitter even if you ignore the outlier power

Ben Clemens: his command of the strike zone has evolved impressively

Ben Clemens: alright, this was a VERY dense hour and a half of chatting, and I still left around 60 questions on the bench

Ben Clemens: that was really fun, though, let’s try this again sometime

Ben Clemens: thanks so much for coming out and chatting today, everyone

Ben Clemens: and now that we got Matt Damon back, I’m just hoping for the guy who asks the lunch question to return as well

Ben Clemens: Have a wonderful week, and I’ll talk to you again soon