Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 4/14/25

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: Let’s talk

Guards! Guards!: With swing velocity being a measured component now, do you think that swing acceleration might have some meaning to it? I’m thinking of players who are described as “ferocious rotators” and if it’s possible to correlate swing accel/decel to injury risk, for example.

Ben Clemens: I definitely think so

Ben Clemens: I haven’t done much looking at it aside from hearing the same things about Ohtani that I think a lot of people have – tremendous acceleration lets him hit the ball with high bat speed even deep behind the plate, etc.

Ben Clemens: I think it’s certainly interesting to look at, I haven’t done a ton of work with the swing length and depth of contact data but presumably something could be worked out from that

Pig Newton: How farfetch’d would it be for the Royals to call up Jac Caglianone straight from AA to provide the team with an offensive spark?

Paddy: These EV readings for Caglione are bananas. Is he a monster or more like Gallo 2.0 with the swing and miss?

Ben Clemens: I’m kind of shocked he only has three home runs

Ben Clemens: For how hard he’s hitting the ball, that seems strange? But I guess he has only 45 PA still

Ben Clemens: Is there going to be some swing and miss? I mean, yeah. The guy is a low contact rate type, that’s who he was in college and I don’t expect that to change suddenly

Ben Clemens: But if he can play outfield, I want him up yesterday. And if he can’t, maybe Jonathan India can play outfield?

Opifijikl: Everybody was lukewarm on the Red Sox till the end of the offseason, when they started hyping them up like crazy. So far they’ve been lukewarm. Any thoughts on what is going on, or what should change?

Ben Clemens: I think it would be great for them not to have an entire rotation on the IL

Ben Clemens: Like, Sean Newcomb isn’t their fifth starter right now, b/c he’s their fourth starter

Ben Clemens: I think their offense is excellent, like ‘it’ll be fine even with rafaela and catchers who were’nt good enough to supplant connor wong’ excellent

Ben Clemens: So I think it’s just a matter of respectable starting pitching

Ben Clemens: They’ve kind of gotten it so far, honestly. But some of that comes from Fitts, who’s already on the IL, and there’s a lot of ‘well maybe Walker Buehler will figure it out again’ in here, if that doesn’t happen, they might need a bit more

Ben Clemens: Crochet is as good as advertised, though

David Stearns: Baty has a wRC+ of 68 in his career and has been significantly worse than that this year with a 41% K rate. Is he a bust or does he need a change of scenery?

Ben Clemens: I’m definitely not smart enough to know how to tell the difference between those two

Ben Clemens: but get him out of Queens

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: I get that some folks like catcher framing. But if it were eliminated via full ABS, wouldn’t the tradeoffs we would assumedly get – better hitting & throwing from catchers – be worth it?

Ben Clemens: It’s a good question and I’m not sure

Ben Clemens: Like, to some extent definitely

Ben Clemens: but to some extent the big plodding guys behind the plate, the Ryan Doumits of the world, are just aesthetically unpleasing to watch

Ben Clemens: and it’s not like catchers are suddenly going to be a font of great offense

Ben Clemens: better throwing, I guess I’m excited about that

D back fan: Geraldo Perdomo finishes _ in NL MVP voting

Ben Clemens: I mean, I get that he’s off to a good start

Ben Clemens: but even Geraldo Perdomo doesn’t agree with you on this one. He’s dropping down sacrifice bunts

Phil: Austin Riley has been merely pretty good instead of excellent for a season and a half now. Do you see him bouncing back to his 2022-type production, or is this who he is now?

Ben Clemens: 2022? Maybe that’s a bit high. 2023? That’s around where I have him. He was hurt last year and underperformed his raw data, but beneath the hood, it looked a lot like ’23

Ben Clemens: Now, that’s more All Star than borderline MVP vote getter, but is that bad? Not at all

Sir Nerdlington: With Steele down, do the Cubs’ willingness to extend Kyle Tucker go up so they can trade Cassie and/or Alcantara for a TOR arm?

Ben Clemens: I definitely do not think they perceive it that way

Ben Clemens: Signing Tucker is a long-term decision, and I think it would be poor strategy for them to change their behavior around the most consequential contract extension talks they’ve had since the 2016 era based on a short-term pitching availability problem

Ben Clemens: Like, I’d try to extend Tucker either way. But I wouldn’t add $100 million to my offer to bowl him over just because Justin Steele is hurt

Talfred: I know it’s only 56 PAs, but should we take the StatCast numbers for Ben Rice seriously? He looks great so far.

Ben Clemens: We should because they match what we already know about him

Ben Clemens: Don’t take them exactly as gospel or anything, but yeah, this very large gentleman with a big swing hits the ball hard

comish4lif: When is swing velocity measured? It would seem to me that the swing being so short – that anything other then the immediate beginning (initial acceleration) and the end (deceleration) would be in a narrow band?

Wouldn’t the system just grab the max of that reading?

Ben Clemens: It’s taken at contact point

Ben Clemens: and no, there’s a pretty clear relationship between longer and faster swings. The more time it has to accelerate, the more it does. Hitters have higher bat speed when they catch the ball out front

Oaktown Blues: Who do you think will have a better career: Caglianone or Kurtz?

Ben Clemens: I think I lean towards Caglianone but this is really not my area of expertise

Ben Clemens: I like both players quite a bit though

Neelix: The number of GIDPs continues to drop league-wide. On a rate basis, last year’s 0.66 GIDP-per-game was the lowest number since at least the mid-1940s (record keeping gets sketchy at this point). We’re down even further in 2025. What’s causing it? Shift? Fewer singles? Less pitching to contact?

Ben Clemens: Basically “yes”

Ben Clemens: So, proportion of plate appearances that feature a runner on first, going way down

Ben Clemens: runner on first and less than two outs, I should say

Ben Clemens: There were 2,800 fewer of those in 2024 vs. 2008, the first year I can pull Statcast for

Ben Clemens: ball in play frequency has gone down too — more homers, walks, strikeouts

Ben Clemens: none of which can turn into double plays

Ben Clemens: Finally, even on balls in play, groundball rate is down

Ben Clemens: hitters want the ball in the air

Ben Clemens: it’s just a ton of things, all working in concert

GraphsMan: what level of concern is there for Jobe’s inability to generate whiffs? I read the Michael Rosen article about being more deceptive with his delivery and I’m sure that can help, but it feels like there’s something a bit more fundamental to his problems, even if he can really pump gas and spin it.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think his article hits on it in a specific way – we’re looking at what this guy is doing to make his stuff not translate into missed bats

Ben Clemens: but from a more general perspective, like, obviously!

Ben Clemens: the stuff can look like whatever it wants to. This guy wasn’t missing bats in the minors, did we think he was going to suddenly do so in the majors?

Ben Clemens: I’m not saying he can’t figure out how to turn his prodigious talents into results

Ben Clemens: But he hasn’t yet

Ben Clemens: I’d expect much higher strikeout rates for a guy with this kind of arsenal. Whether it’s deception or just the fastball playing down b/c of his arm slot, I need to see more

Ben Clemens: I’ll be quick to believe if he has a few big strikeout games, but until then I’m out

David: How much more valuable is a 6-WAR player than a 3-WAR player? Judging by the mega contracts in the last few months for Soto and Guerrero, it seems that front offices value a player who could put up a 6-WAR season far more than double a 3-WAR player.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, quite a bit more. Teams are treating wins above average as something to target, particularly good teams. That makes sense to me – they’re pretty good at generating or trading for average players

Ben Clemens: I’ve written about this in the last few editions of the trade value series, how doing some kind of linear accounting of wins and dollars doesn’t really match team preferences anymore

Ben Clemens: stars have value in excess of just adding up the WAR because WAR isn’t made to account for the fact that concentrating a ton of value into one spot is good

Ben Clemens: There are only so many at-bats to hand out, the high-rate guys make your ceiling higher, give them the big deals

Kurtz: I’m basically Barry Bonds in the minors right now.  IDK how you could pick Jac over me.

Ben Clemens: If the question was which player would be better for a 14-game 2025 minor league sample, and only games that have already been played would count, well, I’d pick you

Damion: Why is the natural progression of injury news for pitchers always as follows?…..1. Pitcher X being evaluated for elbow discomfort.  2.  Only inflammation/tendonitis found, Pitcher X optimistic about missing the minimum.  3.  Pitcher X out for the season, after seeking second opinion.  Needs elbow reconstruction…….this happened exactly this way with Eury Perez, then Kyle Bradish, then Cole, now Steele.  Is it just because better imaging was done?  Why rush to proclaim optimism publicly, only to do a 180?

Ben Clemens: Great question and I don’t have a good answer for you

ethan: a 6 war regressing athletically might turn them into an overpaid 3 war player, whereas a 3 war player regressing a similar amount becomes a fringe mlber or non-rosterable

Bill: Keibert Ruiz’s underlying metrics are horrible, with poor exit velocity and even worse bat speed. So how much of his hot start is actually valid? Is it possible to be a good hitter with those poor metrics?

Ben Clemens: I have it at a cool 0%

Ben Clemens: Well, that’s unfair

Ben Clemens: but c’mon, it’s 57 PA, 14 games. Ruiz was even hotter than this in 2023, in August

Ben Clemens: a season that he finished 0.5 wins below replacement level

Ben Clemens: now, a lot of that is because he’s not very good defensively

Ben Clemens: but…. no, I don’t think he’s going to keep running a 20% HR/FB rate with almost no barrels, no I don’t think he’s going to learn to hit the ball much harder after a huge sample of him not doing it

Clen Bemens: Aaron Judge is insanely good.  That is all.  I hope people understand and appreciate what we’re privileged to be watching.

Ben Clemens: I was watching Giants/Yankees over the weekend and the announcers were talking about his numbers against Robbie Ray

Ben Clemens: and then one of them was like ‘Well he’s actually great against everyone wearing a Giants uniform, these numbers are’nt even anomalous’

Ben Clemens: yeah, it’s crazy, he’s so good

Matt: Last year, the Marlins were extremely aggressive in declaring themselves as sellers and dealing Arraez early in the season. When and who could be that team and player this year?

Ben Clemens: It’s tricky because they don’t have an obvious person to trade, but the Rockies feel like that to me

Ben Clemens: brutal division, bad start

Steve E: Torpedo bats. Just keeping alive the streak of mentions in the the weekly chat.

Tim: What are the odds Lawlar sticks around as a super-sub for Dbacks if he’s called up to fill-in for Marte? I get they would want him playing everyday, but it seems like it’s finally happening for him and this is what they’ve been waiting for

Ben Clemens: I mean, they didn’t call him up! I’m really surprised they didn’t

Ben Clemens: Tim Tawa is getting backup reps now, and I mean, sure

Ben Clemens: but they must only want Lawlar up if he’s going to start every day, and not if he’s just going to briefly fill in

Didace: “these numbers are’nt even anomalous” – Wait, a baseball announcer used the word “anomalous”?

Ben Clemens: haha definitely!

Ben Clemens: I don’t remember the exact context but Jon Miller likes to drop in the odd vocab word

Clen Bemens: Why don’t the Pirates do what just seems so natural, and move Cruz to 3B?  He looks awful in CF.  Too big for SS.

Ben Clemens: Because they gave a contract extension to the best third base defender in baseball

Ben Clemens: but yeah… as much as I love Ke’Bryan Hayes, and it’s a whole lot, he just does not hit enough

Ben Clemens: I heard on the Pirates broadcast recently that his back issues have been so severe that he says he may never have full range of motion again

Ben Clemens: that doesn’t seem great!

NT: Do you buy the Giants hot start?

Ben Clemens: Um, this good? no

Ben Clemens: but good? yeah

Ben Clemens: I’ve been noodling over something to write about Logan Webb, but the general idea is ‘yep still great’

Ben Clemens: JHL will cool off, but Adames will surely heat up, and I think overall the offense looks a little better than expected

Ben Clemens: The big worry is first base… I’m not loving seeing Casey Schmitt in the lineup ever, but particularly not there

Ben Clemens: but we’re talking about a team with good run prevention and a pretty solid offense

Ben Clemens: The biggest thing holding them back is probably the division they play in, plus  I have questions about the bottom of the rotation

Ben Clemens: But I think they’re a winning team, and the biggest wild card in terms of performance was probably JHL, who has looked as good as possible. So that’s nice

Clen Bemens: Can KeBryan play 2B?  LF?

Ben Clemens: I would not even consider it, tbh. I’d just cut him or something, which would be sad

Sirras: If you had to load up a baseball striking object to use as a weapon in a submarine, what kind would you pick?

Ben Clemens: Ooh, I’d probably use one of those banned softball bats, sorry to ruin the torpedo bat joke

Sirras: Seeing the Cardinals play later this week. Who should I be watching?

Ben Clemens: Masyn Winn being on the IL is a bummer. But Victor Scott II is electric in center, Arenado remains very entertaining, and I really enjoy watching Nootbaar hit

Ben Clemens: I definitely favor defense in my baseball viewing, so Scott and Arenado are big draws

Brandon Marsh: why have I and my good buddy Alec Bohm been not good?

Ben Clemens: Well, I don’t think Bohm is all that great, and was very baffled by his excellent 2024, so maybe that one is just regression

Ben Clemens: obviously I think you’ll both be better as the year wears on. But I can’t really point to any one thing. Marsh lost all his power but also is getting unlucky BABIP wise

Ben Clemens: Bohm is a classic not great at any one thing guy, but all of those things he was good but not great at just fell apart at once

Ben Clemens: like he’s striking out 50% more frequently and walking almost never? But also, he’s chasing more and swinging at strikes less? None of this is reasonable over a longer stretch

Ben Clemens: It’s gonna come out in the wash some

Dan’l: What’s some reasonable-to-expect best case scenario’s for the Cards? An unexpected young SP or two take a step forward (i.e. Liberatore)? Arenado play well enough to get decent trade offers?

Ben Clemens: best case? The Cards make the playoffs

Ben Clemens: the NL Central is pretty blah aside from the Cubs, who just lost their best starter

Ben Clemens: so like…. why not just win the whole thing?

Ben Clemens: we have them 20% to play in October, I think that’s squarely in reasonable territory

Broken Bat: You get him first 3 years… AJ Shawver or Mathew’s of Twins.

Ben Clemens: I’m an AJSS guy if I had to pick, but I’m also kind of a low-info voter here. I definitely do not know enough about Zebby

Steve E: A torpedo bat would definitely work wonders against a submarine pitcher like Tyler Rogers.

Professor Farnsworth: Just here to complain the the Braves were happy to rely on an oft-injured guy who threw more innings than he had in like 7 years, a converted reliever who finished last year with shoulder problems, a guy starting the year on the IL because he was having an internal brace, another converted reliever, and whoever eeked out a position battle with Ian Anderson

Ben Clemens: Then they traded Anderson!

Ben Clemens: I mean, Atlanta’s rotation had really high upside but with tons of risk

Ben Clemens: and so far, the risk has been bad

Ben Clemens: Schwellenbach looks amazing htough!

Taco Tuesday Eve: Are there any other days of the week that so closely are tied with a food than Tuesday with Tacos.  Could there ever really be one that compares?

Ben Clemens: Fish Fridays maybe, from the Catholic influence?

Ben Clemens: But yeah, taco tuesdays is just too good

cade cavin: what is the realistic stat line for a 2025 Fernando tatis jr MVP year? 40-40 with a .900 ops?

Ben Clemens: 950 OPS maybe

Ben Clemens: but yeah, some kind of offensive explosion year with a fun statistical hook, 4040 counts

JD: To me it would make sense to measure swing length until the point of contact with the ball, rather than where the swing finishes. Thoughts?

Ben Clemens: Yeah that’s how they do it

Ben Clemens: Length is from when the bat starts moving to where it impacts the ball

Oaktown Blues: JJ Bleday is really rough defensively in CF. But the A’s don’t really have room to move him to a corner, especially with a Kurtz call up looming. Is there a scenario where he’s the odd man out soon, maybe after a Denzel Clarke call up?

Ben Clemens: Mmmmm, I kind of doubt it this year unless he gets worse

Ben Clemens: But yeah, I don’t really buy him as a center fielder long term, and if everyone pans out, 1b/lf/rf/dh will need to fit Butler, Rooker, Soderstrom, Kurtz

Ben Clemens: so that’s four guys for four spots, playing one of those four spots worse than those guys will probably end up buying you a trade out of town

Ben Clemens: realistically, are they all going to pan out and all be healthy soon? We’ll see, it’s always unlikely for any team

Ben Clemens: but if I’m the A’s, Bleday is the least valuable of that group in terms of my long-term plans

Wigglebot23: Is the Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher rotation likely to remain as bad as it has been?

Ben Clemens: I’m just gonna go with no

cade cavin: worth researching if guys who naturally let the ball travel in the zone (opposite field approach guys) struggle more with increase in velocity as they progress through MiLB into MLB?

Ben Clemens: That sounds great! I don’t have the data to do it, but it sounds interesting

Bencle Mens: what’s the backup plan at SS for St. Louis? I like Saggese’s bat but not defense. Is it a Jose (Borerro or Fermin)? Or do they stick with Saggese? There’s a popular quote out there that no one has ever “had” a bad back, it is either there or not.

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll stick with Saggese unless the injury is more severe than has been reported

Ben Clemens: like, that’s true what you say about a bad back, but the list of baseball palyers who have had back injuries and then been mostly pretty good and available is not short

Dan: I’m extra glad for Aaron Judge because life at the time and being on the wrong coast made it harder to appreciate how good Bonds and Trout were at their peak. I’m getting a do over in taking the time to appreciate a generational talent in real time.

Ben Clemens: Seeing a great player at the peak of their powers is so delightful

Steve E: Taco Tuesday dude, this is ‘Merica, so we have Tenders Tuesdays at my house. Albeit with Mexican beer.

Jim: If Soderstrom continues to hit and Kurtz looks ready to handle 1B, what do the A’s do with Soderstrom? DH and Rooker to LF? Soderstrom rotating between catcher, 1B, and DH? Soderstrom in LF?

Ben Clemens: Last week, we chatted about maybe moving Soderstrom to LF longterm

Ben Clemens: In the present, though, I think Rooker to LF is most likely

Ben Clemens: Maybe with Kurtz 1B and Soderstrom DH/occasional catcher

Ben Clemens: I have little confidence in this view, though

Bobby Peru: Obligatory Kurtz question…is a ROY from him a realistic possibility, or do the As keep him down? Is a draft pick enough motivation for the As to give him a shot this year?

Ben Clemens: Well they wouldn’t be eligible for the draft pick, right?

Ben Clemens: I guess if they called him up like NOW

Ben Clemens: but you need to get 172 days on the big league roster

Oaktown Blues: Wait I thought he had to be on the opening day roster for the draft pick? Or did you just mean he could win ROY if they called him up now?

Ben Clemens: You can technically get it even without being on the opening day roster

Ben Clemens: actually yeah I think we’re past 172 days of service time already

Ben Clemens: so, no pick for Kurtz this year

JD: Um, this good? no. but good? yeah *Answer to every hot start question ever*

Ben Clemens: haha I mean, yes

Ben Clemens: you’re not wrong

Ben Clemens: and yet the questions keep coming

Bobby Peru: Rocker has looked like a hot mess. Does he need to change his sinker-heavy approach, or is this just an adjustment period for him? The swing and miss hasn’t been there, what do you see from him ROS?

Ben Clemens: I’ve only seen one of his starts, but yeah, I’m not a fan of the sinker-heavy approach

Ben Clemens: on the other hand, like, his four-seamer is hardly scary

Ben Clemens: really pedestrian movement profile and he doesn’t locate it well enough to make it play up

Ben Clemens: Between the slider and curveball I think he has two plus secondaries, but his fastball utility has just been abysmal so far

Jim: Why is IL time last season preventing like the A’s and Jacob Wilson from being PPI eligible if he wins ROY?

Ben Clemens: That’s how it was bargained. I agree that it’s kind of confusing. He just had too many days of service time in 2024

Ben Clemens: It’s strange to me that they have that separate roster time rule, given that they also need to be rookie eligible, but hey, they agreed to that rule already

Steve O: Are you buying Anthony Volpe finally making the leap to a league averageish bat? His underlying metrics looks much better this year.

Ben Clemens: I’ve always been buying

Ben Clemens: dollar cost averaging, baby

JD: On bat length: but isn’t a swing like 7 feet? It’s seven feet at the point of contact?

Ben Clemens: Yep. It’s in 3d space, though, so plenty of that is how far the bat has to travel to get from its high initial point to on plane with the strike zone

Jim: Who do you believe in more as a starter – Jeffrey Springs or Joe Boyle?

Ben Clemens: I think Boyle might be an awesome reliever though

J: Why does Craig Counsell insist on handing save opportunities to struggling former Astros closers? Looking at Porter Hodge’s savant page and simply fuming

Ben Clemens: I mean I think Ryan Pressly is good! But I also want to write about Porter Hodge

Ben Clemens: so I’m conflicted here

Ben Clemens: I generally think it’s a bad plan to overreact to a few weeks of numbers. But also, I love overreacting to a few weeks of numbers, and Pressly has been terrible

Ben Clemens: I’d stay the course if I were Counsell, but I’d also try to get Hodge lots of high leverage opportunities

Ben Clemens: Here’s the good news: team leader in entry leverage? Porter Hodge

Noah: How we feeling about Oneil Cruz? Better K and BB %s, but not translating to real production.

Ben Clemens: Ignore the real production, it’s been 54 PA, too noisy to say much. I think he probably won’t run a .214 BABIP all year

Ben Clemens: That said, I don’t think this approach is gonna work long-term

Ben Clemens: He’s just not swinging at strikes

Ben Clemens: 48.6% zone swing rate

Ben Clemens: I’m partial to the Statcast zones, you know heart/shadow/chase/waste

Ben Clemens: his 48% heart swing rate is off the charts

Ben Clemens: Let’s put it this way: 319 players have seen at least 25 pitches down the middle in 2025

Ben Clemens: no one has swung less frequently than Cruz

Ben Clemens: The general idea is good, I think. But he needs to refine it a good dela more

Ben Clemens: I similarly think Elly De La Cruz is being too passive to start the year -and he’s swinging more frequently at pitches down the middle and less frequently at pitches out of the zone

Guest: wait why the talk about cutting hayes? Dude has had great plate discipline this year and elite defense is worth *something*

Ben Clemens: well someone asked whether the Pirates should move Cruz to third and put Hayes in left

Ben Clemens: I think the way that Hayes has value is when he plays elite defense at third

HappyFunBall: With the plethora of DH-type players the As are running out there (or will be soon) would it make sense for them to trade one of them to the Nats for Jacob Young? Nats could use the bat, and Young’s lack of one means he’s probably ticketed for OF4 status anyway

Ben Clemens: That sounds great, honestly

Ben Clemens: I like Young quite a bit, and he’d be a great fit with statues around him in the outfield

Some kinda Mook: Red Sox went a week without hitting a homer, and dropped 2 of 3 to the WHITE SOX. Frustrating stuff.

Ben Clemens: and almost no hit the White Sox in their only win, it was a weird weekend

Ben Clemens: early season swings are brutal. if the Sox are as good as I think they are, they’ll weather this

Oaktown Blues: Any chance you caught JT Ginn’s start against the Mets? Looked pretty good, but I think he could be even better if he threw the sinker more. It’s nasty

Ben Clemens: I turned the game on too late to see his start

Ben Clemens: I’m an overall fan, but more?? He’s very sinker dominant already

Ben Clemens: I think he’s kind of pushing the limits of how sinker/slider you can be as a starter

Ben Clemens: the cutter helps… but like, no changeup at all this year, and his sinker is the kind of shape that plays down against opposite handed hitters, at least in my view

ML: Are you buying Tork’s early season success?

Ben Clemens: I think I am? But Jay Jaffe is writing about it for tomorrow, so I’d say wait and see what he has to say

Jung Hoo Lee: Yes April 14th, but should we get a head start on engraving Jung Hoo Lees MVP trophy?

Ben Clemens: I’d wait until April 16, personally

Ben Clemens: This has panned out so well for the Giants, it’s kinda crazy

Ben Clemens: seemingly every giveaway this year is for him

Ben Clemens: him being good is going to be a huge marketing boom

MoonBeamMcSwine: Gabriel Arias has been that talented guy who couldn’t put it all together.. had hamate injured hands… needed to hustle more, etc.. Is he finally turning the corner/breaking out as his talent is unassailable?

Ben Clemens: As a long time Arias fan who wrote this:

Ben Clemens: Yeah, let’s do it

Jim: Why have the A’s rushed Max Muncy 2.0 to the majors? Especially when the long-term plan was for him to shift to 3B, where he hasn’t really played in the minors.

Ben Clemens: I mean, it feels a little fast, but not crazy, he played all of 2024 at Triple-A and looked good enough. My guess is that they just really don’t like the rest of their options at second

Ben Clemens: Now, when Gelof returns, maybe they’ll send him back down and have him work on his third base defense

Ben Clemens: but I think this is a ‘we must win more games this year and we have no better options at second’ decision

Guest: Do you think taco shops see a noticeable increase in business on a Tuesday?

Steve O: Are the Yankees somewhat an underrated player development org? They’ve produced Volpe, Rice, Wells, Dominguez over the last couple of years with no high draft picks, and they’ve got pitchers littered throughout other organizations. They’ve also made a bunch of trades to acquire talent over the past few years.

Ben Clemens: I would say no, but then I rate their player development group highly

Ben Clemens: particularly on the pitching side

Chip: Drop one with Strider coming back: Wesneski, Roupp, Soriano, G. Williams.

Ben Clemens: Oof, probably Roupp even though I do like him

Ben Clemens: He and Williams both have a lack of competition working in their favor

Ben Clemens: the hot talk in the Bay is replacing Verlander in the rotation, not ‘does Roupp have a spot’

Ben Clemens: Eh, so I think I’ve talked myself into Williams then

Ben Clemens: Roupp’s curveball is delightful

Ben Clemens: and he has the huge tailwind of playing a lot of games in SF with great catching

Sad Sox Fan: Is there any hope for Andrew Vaughn at this point? Dude came out of college a great pure hitter and now he looks absolutely lost at the plate.

Ben Clemens: Nah, I’m over it

Ben Clemens: I picked him for AL RoY way back int he day

Ben Clemens: and then I’ve been sadly watching his progress ever since

Ben Clemens: He’s not as bad as he’s looked this year – but I think he’s as bad as he looked last year, which is kinda bad

MoonBeamMcSwine: Emmanuel Clase, while retaining his velo and cutter movement… has become pedestrian..  Any reason to panic at this early stage of the season??

Ben Clemens: I don’t think there’s a reason to panic

Ben Clemens: I just don’t see how people are gonna keep BABIP’ing .481 against him

Ben Clemens: also, maybe pay more attention if he starts giving up a string of homers, but he’s given up 1

Ben Clemens: that makes his stats look worse than normal because he gives up about two a year

Ben Clemens: seriously, he debuted in 2019 and he’s allowed 14 homers in his career

Tim: Any hope for Miguel Vargas?

Ben Clemens: Sure! But not because of how he’s done this year

Ben Clemens: I’m just a sucker for Vargas. I’ll be wrong on this over and over again if he doesn’t turn it around

Chris: Has Nick Allen supplanted Arcia as the Braves regular SS, or is even that bar too high for April stats?

Ben Clemens: Nope, that one I’ll give you

Ben Clemens: He’s another one of my long-term player crushes, so again take this with a grain of salt

Ben Clemens: but let me put it this way: if I give you the choice bewteen two guys who can’t hit

Ben Clemens: you’d take the one with better defense, right?

Ben Clemens: That’s Allen, for me, and honestly I like his bat more too

Ben Clemens: if he has an 85 wRC+,  he can be a good player

Matthew: Does Jackson Chourio have a legit shot at a top 5 MVP finish? He has been on fire to start the year despite taking no walks. He has also improved a ton in the field this year.

Ben Clemens: most certainly he does

Ben Clemens: it’s also funny, I wrote about the Brewers’ cold start not two weeks ago, and people were freaking out about his SLOW start

Steve O: Is Ceddanne Rafaela’s approach unfixable? I was hoping he could get to a 90-95 wRC+ but even that feels a bit optimistic.

Ben Clemens: To me, it’s unfixable

Ben Clemens: Not like…. guy can’t play in the majors unfixable

Ben Clemens: He’s a phenomenal defender

Ben Clemens: but swing that much, with that little oomph behind those swings, and what do you think is gonna happen

Ben Clemens: He’s 21st percentile for bat speed, first percentile for chase rate, and only average when it comes to contact

Ben Clemens: like, how do you see this playing out well? I can’t wrap my head around a good outcome here without a LOT changing

MoonBeamMcSwine: Better long term catching talent: Daniel Susac or Henry Ford?

Ben Clemens: I mean, I’ve got Ford, as long as we’re talking Harry Ford

Ben Clemens: Big fan of his overall skillset and I kinda fell in love with the goofy Team GB celebrations at the world baseball classic

Strider: Any concern for Strider losing a few mph early going on his FB? Results have been great but competition is suspect. 99 to 95avg is a big change. Think this gets better with time or try to move R.Greene and Strider for Skenes or something?

Ben Clemens: I’m not concerned, but I’m with you, I’m kind of ignoring the results, the copmetition is just not meaningful

Ben Clemens: give him a bit to ramp up. and honestly, the velo’s nice but the shape is the thing I want to see on the fastball

diadem: What does Preister’s future look like?

Ben Clemens: So, maybe he’ll be a diamond in the rough, suddenly a great pitcher after years of being quite bad

Ben Clemens: leaving the pirates is generally good for your development as a pitcher, though

Ben Clemens: and if nothing else I could see him as a nice reliever

Ben Clemens: BP wrote a nice piece that was essentially wishcasting, like what if Priester learned to throw his best pitches better and also used them more, and it was kinda convincing

Ben Clemens: but I’m going to stick to my take from last year’s PPR

Ben Clemens: Let’s just say that if Priester were named “Jared Jones” instead of “Quinn Priester,” I think he would have gotten a lot less prospect buzz.

Bencle Mens: Quinn Mathews to the DL. Sadness.

New UK fan: Re Rafaela: why do some players have a bad approach? Recognising pitches, accumulated bad habits? Feels much more intangible to me than e.g., lack of power

Ben Clemens: I think it’s largely pitch recognition

Ben Clemens: to some extent, it comes down to a conscious choice, too. like, you could swing less hard or swing later and give yourself more margin of error

Ben Clemens: but ‘approach’ is kind of nebulous and includes many things

Ben Clemens: Rafaela’s weakness to me jsut seems to be trouble with pitch recognition. Which is really hard

Oaktown Blues: Batting seems so hard, I’m never surprised when someone has a bad approach. Pitchers are too good

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’m with you. I’m more impressed when someone has a good approach than I am annoyed that someone has a bad approach

Dfan: Is there a way Rice can stay in the line-up when Stanton returns? If he keeps hitting where will they play him?

Ben Clemens: I think he’s earned himself a platoon at the very least

Ben Clemens: the Yankees like Stanton a good deal more than I do, to be fair

Ben Clemens: But like…. yes, I get that he’s very powerful, but he wasn’t even that great last year? in addition to being inflexible (DH only) and frequently unavailable

Ben Clemens: if Rice somehow ends up as a bench player this year, I’m going to be surprised and disappointed. Give GOldy frequent rest days and have Rice back him up. Squeeze him in at catcher very occasionally. Sit Stanton liberally against righties, the guy has a 105 wRC+ against them in the past three years in aggregate

Ben Clemens: to be fair he has a 106 wRC+ overall

Ben Clemens: but like… don’t block your young players breaking out for kind of a fixed-upside DH

Stephen: Yankees still badly need a 3B.  Ke’Bryan trade make any sense?

Ben Clemens: Nah. Look, it pains me to say this, but they need a good 3b

Ben Clemens: not one who has a career 89 wRC+, and 84 since the start of 2021

Ben Clemens: I really hope Hayes breaks out. At one poitn I compared him to Josh Donaldson as a talented defender who hits the ball hard and just needs to elevate

Ben Clemens: but look, he didn’t do that

Ben Clemens: if I’m the Yankees, I make a trade for a 3b if they can help me right away, and not otherwise

Ben Clemens: Like someone in the chat suggested Ryan McMahon as an option, and same deal

Ben Clemens: could be good. isn’t yet!

Ben Clemens: Okay, I just realized I’ve been chatting for an hour forty, and i gotta go get lunch ready

Ben Clemens: So have a wonderful week everyone, and let’s do it again next week, when we’ll have 33% more data and yet I’ll still tell you ‘calm down, it’s April’