After losing Mitchell Marner to the Vegas Golden Knights this summer, the Toronto Maple Leafs were forced to pivot in hopes of filling out their roster in such a way that allowed them to remain in contention, and while they have been able to do that to some degree, fans are still curious if Auston Matthews can bounce back after an injury-riddled campaign where his offensive production dropped significantly.
Related: What Can Maple Leafs Fans Expect From Nicolas Roy?
In this player preview, we take a brief look at what Matthews did last season, on top of what fans and the team will expect out of him.
Auston Matthews
- Age:Â 27
- How Acquired:Â Drafted 1st overall in 2016
- 2024-25 Stats:Â 33 goals and 78 points in 67 games
- Career Stats:Â 401 goals and 727 points in 629 games
- 2025-26 Contract Status:Â Year two of a four-year contract worth $13.25 million average annual value (AAV)
2024-25 Season & Criticism From Fans
Matthews was dealing with an injury last season, which subsequently led to his offensive production dropping. However, he still maintained over a point-per-game average and was able to play elite defensively in both the regular season and the playoffs. Fans immediately pushed back on how he played in elimination games and how he didn’t seem to elevate his game, but his defensive mindset, combined with his ability to maintain just under a point-per-game average in the playoffs, made him one of the most well-rounded players in the league.
Noticed Matthews’ projected WAR has dipped below the 100th percentile for the first time since 2018-19 pic.twitter.com/L5iCY6n4X3
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) March 14, 2025
Going from a 69-goal campaign to 33 goals will turn some heads, and it did just that. Fans immediately questioned whether Matthews was injured, and he was, and while some fans gave him the benefit of the doubt, assuming he’d bounce back and find his elite form next season, some fans were a little harsher.
The main question from some fans was why he seemed to elevate more in the 4 Nations Face Off than he did with the Maple Leafs in the postseason, but the simple answer is, he didn’t. A short tournament like that brings out the best in everyone, and with him being the best player the United States has to offer right now, he simply stood out more than he usually does because it was a world stage.
For fans to say he disappeared in the postseason is plain wrong. He may not have been able to find a way to elevate his game similar to how Edmonton Oilers’ forwards Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have over the past couple of seasons, but 11 points in 13 games while maintaining elite defensive play is something any contending team would want.
2025-26 Season Role & Expectation
Matthews will step into next season as a superstar and the go-to goalscorer. He believes he is 100% healthy and ready to bounce back to his natural form, and the Maple Leafs will hope he can get back to that level without Marner. Matthew Knies will be relied on to play a bigger role and will likely get some looks alongside Matthews next season, as will newcomer Matias Maccelli, but individually, Matthews will have to step up offensively while maintaining his defensive mindset.
Matthews has proven time and time again that he is an elite offensive producer when he is fully healthy and should always be in the conversation for the best defensive forward in the NHL, and that’s exactly what fans and the team will be expecting heading into the new campaign.
Stat Projections
When looking at social media, some fans aren’t sure if Matthews can bounce back to the 69-goal plateau he set just two seasons ago, while some believe he might be able to do better than that. It’s tough to predict exactly what his stat line will look like, especially with such a different-looking team around him, but let’s take a crack at it.
My official prediction is that Matthews scores 50 goals and adds 41 assists for 91 points. He will likely struggle out of the gate as he tries to gain some chemistry with his new teammates, but once he feels comfortable with his linemates, he will pick it up in a big way. I wouldn’t say it’s out of the question that he pushes closer to 60 goals, but to be on the safe side, I would say he gets 50. 100 points isn’t out of the question either, but 91 feels like a safe bet, since it’s just over a point-per-game average and he should ride that momentum into the playoffs, if the Maple Leafs can get back there.
As the 2025-26 season approaches, be sure to continue following The Hockey Writers as your source for news from around the NHL and the hockey world.
