The FIDE World Cup 2025 takes place in Goa, India, from 1–26 November and is a unique high-level format tournament in chess, being a knockout event. Competitors play two games against their opponent in the classical time control, one game with the white pieces and one game with the black pieces. If the score remains equal, they play further rapid, blitz and then Armageddon tiebreaks.
This unique format makes it one of the most exciting spectator events in chess, with comebacks, upsets, drama, and chances for underdogs, which just don’t exist in Swiss or round-robin formats. On the flipside, the format is one of the most anxiety-inducing for the competitors, who, after being eliminated from the event, go home.
In total, there is a $2,000,000 USD prize fund at stake, as well as the top three of the 206 participants being invited to the Candidates Tournament 2026.
Lichess Coverage
We will share all of the games in our live PGN broadcast, per the tournament schedule, as well as daily content from the event across our social media channels.
The Players
As usual for an elite FIDE event, the lineup is absolutely stacked. Some names are notably missing, such as GM Magnus Carlsen, GM Hikaru Nakamura (possibly due to parental duties for both), GM Fabiano Caruana (already qualified to Candidates), and GM Alireza Firouzja.
But regardless, the new chess elite of World Champion GM Gukesh Dommaraju, GM Arjun Erigaisi, GM Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, GM Vincent Keymer, and GM Nodirbek Abdusattorov are all taking part.
GM Gukesh Dommaraju. Photo: Michal Walusza / FIDE
Many of the older elite are also competing, such as GM Anish Giri, GM Wesley So, GM Shakhriyar Mamedyarov, GM Maxime Vachier-Lagrave, GM Ian Nepomniachtchi, and GM Levon Aronian.
GM Anish Giri. Photo: Michal Walusza / FIDE
Overall, 22 of the participating players are 2700 rated or higher, with nearly half the field (91/206 players) being rated 2600 or higher.
Simulated Predictions
We updated the ratings of the top 165 players with their live ratings, and then used that to simulate the tournament a million times.
First, we looked at who was most likely to win the tournament outright:
As the top 3 winners all make it to the Candidates Tournament, we also simulated who would be most likely to get one of those top 3 spots:
And, when Gukesh (defending World Champion) and Giri (already qualified to Candidates) are removed:
Aside from these stats:
- The chance of the 4th placed player making the Candidates is 32.2% according to our simulations.
- The chance of a sub-2700 rated winner is 13.9%
- But the chance of a sub-2700 rated player qualifying to the Candidates is 59.5%
- The chance two sub-2700 rated players qualifying to the Candidates is 17%
- The chance of a sub-2600 rated winner is 0.3% (go on, you underdogs!)
- The chance of a sub-2600 rated player qualifying to the Candidates is 2.9%
- Keymer facing his long-time coach GM Péter Lékó happened in 0.2% of our simulations
- An Australian won in 111 out of 1 million simulated tournaments, (about 0.0001% chance – but hey, it’s not impossible!)
Assessment
The simulated predictions pretty clearly say that this tournament is Erigaisi’s or Keymer’s to lose, and both players are certainly in fine form.
Keymer, in particular, scored 7/9 in the strong Chennai Grand Masters tournament, missed the Candidates spot in the FIDE Grand Swiss 2025 by a whisker, coming 4th with 7.5/11, and was dominant recently in the European Team Championship with 7/9. In 2023’s World Cup, his form was great – even taking a win from Carlsen, who eventually knocked him out in a tense tiebreak in the 4th round (32 players remaining).
GM Vincent Keymer. Photo: Michal Walusza / FIDE
Erigaisi is Erigaisi, he basically got to a 2800 rating through playing nothing but open tournaments. An absolute monster on the board, he’s well-rounded and strong in classical, rapid and blitz, meaning he’s well-placed to take his chances in tiebreaks if he needs to.
GM Arjun Erigaisi. Photo: Michal Walusza / FIDE
Meanwhile, Praggnanandhaa has essentially already qualified to the Candidates via the 2025 FIDE Circuit, which could go either way for him. Perhaps with nothing to lose in terms of Candidates, he will go full “mentality monster” as Carlsen once described him. But the allure of doing well on home soil in a highly prestigious event, will surely be important to all of the Indian contingent, and a motivating factor.
A somewhat surprising omission from our simulations of the top 10 is Levon Aronian, who is a veteran of the format and who has a style which suits this format, apparent as a two-time winner. Equally, Vidit Gujrathi has made it to the Quarter Finals twice in previous World Cups and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him make it to the top 3 given a resurgence in his form since 2024.
Judging from their recent form, the chances given to Mamedyarov and Vachier-Lagrave seem to be a bit too high from the simulations, neither has looked as motivated and inspired as some of the other players on the graph, and it feels like those more human factors could ultimately influence their final standing. In 2023, Mamedyarov was eliminated in the 2nd round, and Vachier-Lagrave was eliminated in the 4th round by Sindarov.
GM Maxime Vachier-Lagrave. Photo: Michal Walusza / FIDE
This could also be the case for the World Champion, Gukesh, who has historically looked vulnerable in faster time controls. However, Gukesh has clearly been working on this, and recently had a strong performance in St. Louis on the first day of the rapid Clutch Chess: Champions Showdown. However, if he were pushed to blitz tiebreaks, he could be eliminated earlier than his classical rating and World Championship title would suggest. Still just 19, the youngest ever Classical World Champion is continuing to choose to play for experience, to improve and learn: a terrifying thought he can become yet stronger! At the same time, this is the mature decision to take, and also shows his deep love and commitment for the game.
Meanwhile, Wei Yi and Abdusattorov are possibly underrepresented by the simulations. Abdusattorov’s form has looked a little bit shaky lately, but one would think that this format would play to his strengths, albeit he was eliminated in the second round in 2023. Meanwhile, Wei Yi played his first World Cup in 2013 and has experience in the format, and aside from this his form has looked good for the last few years.
GM Nodirbek Abdusattorov. Photo: Michal Walusza / FIDE
The simulations also predicted an almost 60% chance of a sub-2700 qualifier to the Candidates (a player in the top 3-5 if the top 3 includes Giri and/or Gukesh). While difficult to predict, the American prodigy, GM Abhimanyu Mishra, who was the youngest player to obtain the Grandmaster title, has been in excellent form since the summer (gaining something like +50 rating) and came an astonishing 5th in the Grand Swiss. However, there’s a large contingent of players who must certainly be in the running here, such as GM Jorden van Foreest, GM Daniil Dubov, and GM Parham Maghsoodloo.
Aside from these stronger favourites, ones to watch generally include the Argentinian prodigy IM Faustino Oro – and it will be interesting to see how the 12-year-old (and youngest World Cup competitor) fares. Turkish prodigies, GM Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş – who also had a strong Grand Swiss – and GM Ediz Gürel, will both be playing and it would certainly be a fairytale (although slim chances) if they qualified for the Candidates.
IM Faustino Oro. Photo: Michal Walusza / FIDE
With so many top players participating, a prize fund of two million dollars and three Candidates spots up for grabs, we expect to see an exciting knockout tournament over the coming weeks. Make sure to follow our coverage across our social media channels and on Lichess itself, and watch all the games in our live PGN broadcast.
Who is your favourite? Let us know in the comments below!