Yesterday’s result just shows that this title race is not yet done and dusted.
The victory against Sunderland took us 9 points clear at the top. It had some crowing us champions, especially with City away to Liverpool on the Sunday.
Most of us had City down to lose that game considering their recent form, but they fought back from a goal down to beat Liverpool at Anfield 2-1. That brings them back to 6-points behind us. And by the time we kick off against Brentford, that lead could be just 3.
I remember back in 2022/23 we were 8 points ahead of Man City. We finished 2nd and were labelled bottlers. But idiots did not take into account that City had a game in hand, and we had to go to the Etihad. that 8 points was very quickly 2. And Saturday nights scenario was similar.
Yes, a 9 point gap looked huge, and you will have kids on social media screenshotting it if we do not win the league. But City had a game in hand. And we have to go to the Etihad. Like 2022/23, 9 points can quickly become 3. And then it really is all to play for.
So realistically, what are the magic numbers for The Arsenal?
89 – The most amount of points Man City can get this season. A figure we have only breached once in our entire history with the Invincibles.
For City to get to 89, they would need to win their next 13 games, making it 14 wins from 14 games (by the time you take into account yesterdays win). It would be hugely challenging, but is also not beyond City. Especially when you take into account how much confidence winning at Anfield may create.
But then whilst 14 games won in a row is not beyond them, it is also something they have not done since 2018/19, when they finished with 89 points.
Man City’s longest winning run this season is 6 games. Last season it was 4. And not since they hauled us back in 2022/23 have they won more than 10 in a row.
For us to hit 90 points, we must win 11, draw 1 of the remaining 13 games. With the games coming up I do not think we will do that. And if City do win their last 14 games of the season then fair play to them.
85 – The real top of end of what I think City may achieve. This would be 11 wins and 2 draws from their last 13 games. Again, a huge task but one they could do.
Their only tricky remaining away fixture is now Chelsea. They face Arsenal, Aston Villa and Newcastle at home. It would not be a surprise if they won every other game, as well as two of these fixtures as well.
10 wins from 30 games would get Arsenal 86 points. Or 9 wins and 3 draws with just a single defeat. Based on the form across the season, we are on for an 85 point season. So to get to 85, or 86 to (hopefully) take goal difference out of the occasion, we just need to keep up our current form.
83 – This is my prediction for what I think Man City will get to. Although I must say that figure was worked out before the Liverpool game. For us to get to 84 points, we would need to win 9 and draw 1. Or win 8 draw 4. Doable.
80 – If 85 is the high of what I think Man City will realistically get, than 80 is the low.
With the fixtures they have left, 30 points from 13 games should be the bare minimum they should expect. That is 9 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat. Can Chelsea do what Liverpool could not? A trip to Everton may not always be easy. And Newcastle and Aston Villa are two teams that thrive when opponents come on to them allowing them to play counter attacking football.
Throw in Arsenal at home, and trips to Bournemouth and Leeds, if City do not find top form you could make a case for them dropping points in 4 out of the final 13 games.
If City hit the lowest that I would realistically expect them to, then we need 25 points to hit 81. That would be 7 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats. Or 8 wins, 1 draw and 13 defeats.
I think it will take more than 81 for us to win us the league, but if City do not win their next 6 games then they will be looking at this lower end.
76 – Manchester City’s total if they continue with their current run rate (avg 2 points a game). I would be surprised if City do not pick up in the last 14 games of the season, especially if the Liverpool victory gives them the confidence to springboard some momentum in.
If City only continue collecting points at an average of 2 a game, that leaves us needing just 77. 7 wins. 6 wins 3 draws. 5 wins 6 draws. I would be very disappointed and begin to ask questions if Man City won the league with just 76 points.
I certainly do not think this league is done. A 6 point gap really is nothing. Especially when we have to go to the Etihad. But this all paints scenarios that are doable.
If City get 85+, they will likely be champions. It is my feeling that we will end up with 84/85 points. Our run rate for the entire season. But there are plenty of scenarios that make us champions with 84/85 points.
The fact the winner of the Premier League could be crowned with such low points highlights how strong this league is. Opposing fans will paint this as “poor champions”, but surely it shows that the mid and lower teams are taking points regularly off the top teams.
A side winning the league with 95+ does not show a strong league. It shows a weak league with 1 (or 2) strong teams.
The biggest noise makers about “weak league” will be our friends from Liverpool and Tottenham. But if the league is as weak as they say, what does it say about their teams? Liverpool are closer to 18th in terms of points then they are to top. And by the time the FA Cup 4th round kicks off this weekend, Tottenham could be just 3 points above the relegation zone.
Ultimately, we just need to focus on ourselves. One game at a time. Back the boys. Ignore the noise. It is in our hands.
Keenos