Tour Confidential: Lowry’s collapse, the future PGA Tour schedule

Check in every week for the unfiltered opinions of our writers and editors as they break down the hottest topics in the sport, and join the conversation by tweeting us at @golf_com. This week, we discuss Shane Lowry’s epic collapse at the PGA National, the future of off-week events like the Cognizant and more.

Shane Lowry led the Cognizant Classic by three with three to play on Sunday at PGA National, but he found the water off the tee on both 16 and 17, doubled both and handed Nico Echavarria the title. What in the world happened to Lowry? And when’s the last time we’ve seen a Sunday collapse this rough?

Alan Bastable, executive editor (@alan_bastable): Doubt is what happened. Lowry said his fanned iron into the water on 16 “completely threw me,” and, from that moment on, he never was able to pop his wheels back on. It was shocking because it was Lowry — a guy we’re used to seeing deliver in the nerviest of spots — but it also was wholly relatable, because this is what golf, perhaps more cruelly than any sport, does to players of all abilities: one negative thought begets more negative thoughts, and before you know it, you can barely draw back the club let alone find a tucked pin from 200 yards out. Lowry said it all when he said, “I just felt like it was weird out there.” The last Sunday like this one? Gosh, there have been many. Fleetwood’s oil-leaking finish at the Travelers last year comes to mind.

Jack Hirsh, associate equipment editor (@JR_HIRSHey): Are we used to seeing Shane Lowry deliver in the nerviest of spots? The Open Championship was seven years ago now! Since then, the only event he’s won was a team event with Rory McIlroy and the only other time he came up clutch was last fall at the Ryder Cup. Aside from that, he’s been the best player at PGA National over the past five years, a tournament that doesn’t draw the star power it once did, and has no wins to show for it. There was also his three-wack in Philly last season. All of this is to say that something clearly changed in Shane Lowry since the Open, where he can’t seem to get over the hump unless he’s part of a team. Seems that came back to bite him here. As for recent comparisons, non-Fleetwood division, double-double is tough, and frankly something I’d rather see at In-N-Out, but Joel Dahmen bogeyed the last three to lose in Puntacanna last year and Collin Morikawa bogeyed three in a row to lose a 7-shot lead to Jon Rahm in 2023 at the Sentry.

Josh Sens, senior writer, (@joshsens): The list of late meltdowns is long and painful. I’d agree that Fleetwood stands out as the most recent of a similar scale. Speaking of that, I was glad to see Lowry take a page from the Fleetwood playbook and not shy away from post-round questions, as he did after his disappointing finish at the Truist last year. What exactly happened? Lowry himself said that golf happened. He’s on a tough run of brutal finishes. But I wonder if by addressing the questions head-on, he, like Fleetwood, will have a breakthrough soon. You can’t beat back the darkness by ignoring it.

Three of the top betting favorites for the Cognizant Classic withdrew early in the week, leaving just eight of the top 50 players in the world in the field. The Cognizant, the first stop of the Florida Swing, follows two straight Signature Events on the West Coast and is followed by two more Signature Events (including the Players). With all the discussion surrounding new schedules, is the Cognizant a good example of why the PGA Tour schedule is too unbalanced and needs a change? Or an example why these tournaments are necessary so a mostly young, unproven group can pave their way?

Bastable: Well, we know change is coming. Question is, how much that change will affect the Tour’s underclass? It’s not hard to grasp why congregating the stars as much as possible is a good business model. But the Tour’s decision-makers seem less energized about creating pathways — at least in the form of a robust schedule of “tier 2” events — for the dreamers. Sounds like the endgame is marquee names clashing in marquee markets. This week, though, was a reminder of why it also can be highly entertaining when less established players lock horns with the stars. Sometimes the underdogs win.  

Hirsh: I agree, Basty. Call me a traditionalist, but there’s always going to be tournaments that have and tournaments that are have-nots. I thought the Signature Event model with Siggies and Full-fields was a nice compromise to what is being proposed by having an elite tour and then something in between the PGA Tour and the Korn Ferry. Where the issue lies is the balance. Wasn’t the idea to have two full-field events followed by two siggies or a major? We started the season with a run of four full-fields and now you have four Signature Events in five weeks (counting the Players) with the poor old Cognizant getting squished in there. Perhaps there are a few too many Siggies, but we need to shake up the calendar a little and balance this out so these tournaments don’t get left out to dry. 

Sens: You absolutely need to have a few of these lower-wattage events in the mix. It keeps a pipeline open and the dream alive. And as we saw today, it can also lead to pretty compelling entertainment. I don’t know the right balance. 80-20? The top Tour brass is getting paid a lot of money. Let them figure it out. Meantime, though, I think a lot will sort itself out naturally in the years to come, depending on what sponsors decide they want to do.

Much was made pre-tournament about the overseeded rye grass at PGA National, where a course that was once one of the most difficult on Tour has seen lower scores over the last few years (and 17 under win this year). Are you bothered by the conditioning changes and lower scores? Is this something, or nothing?

Bastable: ​​I have a hard time getting too worked up about overseeding, or, for that matter, whether a winning score is 7 under or 17 under. But I do think it’s important for tournaments to establish an identity, and PGA National had that for many years in the form of a teeth-kicking test that felt different from the homogeneity of most other non-major weeks. Shane Lowry reflected on the defanging of PGA National earlier in the week, saying he hoped “the scoring is a little bit more difficult this year and it plays like it used to.” On Sunday, he got his wish.

Hirsh: Spot on. I don’t care too much about winning scores, but PGA National is supposed to be a challenge for these guys. There’s also a bit of an issue since they made the 10th hole a par-5, as this course was previously a par-70 (now 71). Echvarria’s winning aggregate of 267 is the same as Camillo Villegas’ in 2010, although he won by five that year. I say make em suffer not because I wanna see lower scores in general, but seeing Tour players struggle in a non-major is enjoyable once in a while.

Sens: Tougher is always more interesting. Overseeding also uses a lot of water. In short, I’d like to see it play firmer and faster. Though the turf itself had nothing to do with Lowry’s struggles. His tee shots on 16 and 17 didn’t threaten dry land.

Scottie Scheffler didn’t play this week, but last week at Riviera, he ended his streak of 18 straight top-10 finishes, the longest of any player in the modern era. Meanwhile, Xander Schauffele also had a streak of his own end earlier this season, when he made the cut in 72 straight events (the longest since Tiger’s 142) in a streak that lasted nearly four years. Which was more impressive?

Bastable: Oh, it’s Scheffler’s run, which, lest we forget, also included seven wins. It’s hard to compute that level of consistency but consider this for perspective: Tiger’s best run in this category was “only” a mere 11 straight top-10s.

Hirsh: It’s Schauffele’s for simply how long he kept it going without having a bad week. That is, until Scheffler passes him later this summer… 

Sens: Come on, Jack. That matchup goes to Scheffler, and it’s not especially close. 

Hirsh: What fun is agreeing all the time?

Sens: I’d rather save the disagreements for truly arguable topics.

Speaking of Scheffler, he’s been great as usual so far this year — that is, except for his first-round slump he’s been in his last three starts. After winning his first start of the season, Scheffler has carded opening rounds of 73, 72 and 74 in his last three starts, which has been just enough to keep him out of the winner’s circle. Back at the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week, what does Scheffler shoot come Thursday?

Bastable: Considering in his five API starts all he’s done is win twice and never finish outside the top 15, I like his chances of shaking this curious monkey from his back. There’s zero chance this is nothing more than a weird statistical anomaly. His previous five first-round scores at Bay Hill, in reverse chronological order: 71-70-68-70-67. This year he’ll open with another 70, and we can all move from sweating Scottie’s mysterious case of the Thursdays.  

Hirsh: I was about to say wait, 70 is just even par, but then I remembered Bay Hill is another course I wish would go back to par-70! But I digress, Scheffler shoots a four-under 68 and is one off the lead before he cruises to his second win of the season. What’s that? You just wanted his first round score? Deal with it.

Sens: If it were almost any other player, I’d say those rough opening rounds were signs of some kind of mental struggle. But given that it’s Scheffler, I’m going to chalk them up to a statistical anomaly. If he shoots 75 this Thursday, I’ll consider changing my mind. But I won’t have to, since he’s going to shoot 69.

Our Josh Berhow recently wrote about Town & Country Club in Minnesota, a private course that boasts an unconventional 3-5-5-5-3 finish. What’s the most unusual or quirky feature of a couple you have played?

Bastable: Haven’t played it but recently learned that Desert Highlands in Scottsdale closes with a pair of par-3s followed by a pair of par-5s. And Crail (Balcomie) in Scotland has the reverse early in the back nine: two par-5s followed by two par-3s. For back-to-back majestic par-3s, tough to beat Cypress Point’s 15th and 16th.

Hirsh: I love courses that have more par-3s and par-5s than par-4s, but I actually belong to a club in Scotland, Fortrose and Rosemarkie, that has a par-3 9th, followed by eight straight par-4s before another par-3 to finish. On paper, that might sound a little boring, but the way the back nine goes up and back a peninsula while playing along Ness Road, I actually didn’t even realize the eight consecutive two-shotters until the third time I played it. Also, depending on the wind you get, some of those two-shotters are one-shotters and others are three!

Sens: Pacific Grove Golf Links in the Monterey area, widely referred to as the “poor man’s Pebble,” opens with consecutive par 3s. I don’t think I’ve seen that anywhere else, other than on, well, a par-3 course.