Running analysis of World Cup knockout stage

Our soccer writers share their observations and insights throughout the 2026 World Cup. Tap here to see the full World Cup knockout bracket and every team’s path to the final.

Did Germany get jobbed?

One of the great certainties in world football just got upended: Germany, for the first time ever, has lost a World Cup shootout.

It feels weird just writing that.

The four-time champion suffered a seismic 4-3 defeat on penalties to Paraguay, exiting the tournament early once again. The Germans had won all four of their previous World Cup shootouts, but showed uncharacteristic nerves from the spot as Kai Havertz, Nick Woltemade, and Jonathan Tah all failed to convert from 12 yards; the big defender’s effort was the worst of the bunch, as he skied his shot well over the crossbar.

But should he (and Germany) have even been in that position to begin with?

Tah scored what he thought might be a potential match-winning goal when the contest was still tied 1-1 in extra time. His thumping header, however, was called off for a foul on Paraguayan goalkeeper Orlando Gill after a review.

You be the judge …

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The more you see it, the softer it looks.

Pierluigi Collina, the iconic ex-official who now serves as the chairman of the FIFA Referees Committee, said before the tournament that there would be added focus on blocking infractions inside the penalty area during set pieces. Even then, the final call that determined Waldemar Anton had fouled Gill was tenuous at best. There needed to be a “clear and obvious” error to overturn the on-field decision – that’s always been the VAR standard – but even after watching the incident multiple times, is there really enough evidence to say Anton clearly committed a foul? Not for me.

Goalkeepers continue to be the most protected players on the pitch, and Gill certainly benefitted from that fact after the slightest contact with Anton.

Make no mistake: Paraguay was a worthy winner for showing the kind of poise from the penalty spot that Germany badly lacked. But La Albirroja were fortunate to get to that point. – Gianluca Nesci

Are you not entertained?!

The group stage at this summer’s World Cup, despite fears about a dilution in quality with 48 teams, was brilliant from start to finish. The knockout stage, however, is already hitting another level. There’s simply nothing like do-or-die football at the World Cup.

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There wasn’t a single stoppage-time goal in the knockout phase of the 2022 tournament in Qatar. We’ve already had two of them in as many matches this time around.

Canada’s instantly iconic win Sunday – a landmark moment for the men’s program – was immediately matched by Brazil on Monday, as Gabriel Martinelli slotted home a 95th-minute goal to break Japan’s heart.

The Selecao were on upset watch after conceding the opener in the first half, but they stormed back for the win in dramatic fashion, punishing Japan for retreating deep too early and eventually finding the stoppage-time winner with one of the final kicks of the ball in Houston.

Martinelli’s strike, teed up by a smart pass into the box from Bruno Guimaraes, is the latest winner in normal time of any World Cup knockout game on record (since 1966), according to Opta.

Brazil looked lethargic and slow in the first half – perhaps weighed down by the massive expectations that always accompany any Brazilian side at the World Cup. But Carlo Ancelotti’s halftime changes helped the team play with more freedom after the interval, and it paid dividends in the waning seconds.

What drama do the remaining last-32 matches have in store? – Gianluca Nesci

Sunday, June 28

Davies makes instant impact

The protracted will-he-or-won’t-he saga surrounding Canada superstar Alphonso Davies threatened to overshadow the team’s World Cup campaign as Jesse Marsch’s men entered the knockout stage.

Fear not – the saga’s over.

Davies made a triumphant return off the bench in Sunday’s historic 1-0 knockout win over South Africa, entering the contest in the 75th minute when it was goalless and very much still in the balance.

Playing in a more advanced position on the left side of Canada’s midfield, his impact was immediate. Davies’ introduction helped tilt the field; he created a scoring chance with one of his first involvements of the game, and he forced the South African defense to drop deep and retreat close to its own penalty box each time he got the ball and threatened to drive forward.

It wasn’t perfect, but that’s to be expected for someone who’s played sparingly going back to his March 2025 ACL tear. Davies is clearly still not 100% fit. Some of his touches weren’t as crisp as they usually are, and he lacked his trademark burst of obscene pace. And yet, he still made an enormous difference. It was an important reminder of the world-class quality he possesses, and what Canada has been missing for over a year. Imagine the kind of boost he can provide if he can get anything close to 100% ahead of the next round.

There was a genuine danger that Canada wouldn’t go deep enough in the tournament for Davies to even get the opportunity to play after his latest hamstring setback in May. How cruel that would’ve been to the nation’s most talented and recognizable star. With Davies looking on and acting as a decoy for the opening three games, the squad did its part to stick around long enough for its captain to appear. Now, he has the opportunity to lift the team, and country, to even greater heights.

“They deserve the right to go after a giant,” Marsch said of the Canadians’ impending last-16 clash with either the Netherlands or Morocco.

With Davies back in the fold, anything is possible from here against the perennial powers. – Gianluca Nesci

Canada eyes historic win

Make no mistake: Canada fully expected to be here.

Jesse Marsch identified a first-ever knockout appearance as a clear goal for his team long before a ball was ever kicked at the 2026 World Cup. Mission accomplished. But Canada wants (and indeed expects) even more.

Despite losing its group-stage finale, a fortuitous outcome set up Sunday’s meeting with South Africa in the round of 32; Bafana Bafana were widely expected to be ousted in the opening phase. Hugo Broos’ underdog squad will long remember its fateful win over South Korea that allowed the team to reach this stage, and that should be celebrated.

But Canada is, at least on paper, the better team.

After an uncharacteristically tentative start on home soil in Toronto, Canada grew into the tournament, and the relentless pressure and aggression the team showed in the closing minutes of its loss to Switzerland was more reminiscent of what this squad has become under Marsch’s leadership. If that version of Canada shows up in Los Angeles, free of some of the pressures of playing at home, the Canadians should advance to the round of 16.

If Canada comes out hesitant, though, the South Africans can absolutely take advantage and cause problems on the counterattack. It’s finely poised. – Gianluca Nesci

Who ya got?

Let the fun begin.

Some surprising group-stage results yielded a lopsided knockout bracket that has France, Germany, the Netherlands, Morocco, Portugal, Croatia, Spain, and Belgium all on the same side. Co-hosts the United States and Canada also find themselves on that side of the draw.

Defending champion Argentina is the big winner here.

With red-hot record breaker Lionel Messi leading the way – literally and figuratively after his historic group-stage performance – the Albiceleste appear to have the most favorable path to a semifinal berth (although South American peer Colombia may have something to say about that).

(Source: FIFA)

For a full breakdown of how we got to the knockout phase, check out all of our group-stage analysis here.

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