While a report earlier today revealed that the Cardinals and Astros have resumed discussions regarding veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado, a report from Chandler Rome and Katie Woo of The Athletic this evening has cast doubt on the likelihood of a deal coming together. According to Rome and Woo, although the sides did re-engage about Arenado in the aftermath of Alex Bregman signing with the Red Sox, those renewed discussions were “brief” and that there has been no traction gained on a deal between the sides. Rome and Woo add that Arenado’s stance on waiving his no-trade clause to join the Astros has not changed to this point.
The report meshes with comments from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak earlier today, in which he suggested to reporters that he didn’t feel anything was “imminent” regarding Arenado. Rome and Woo go on to relay that sources described the possibility of a deal coming together between the two teams as a “long shot,” adding that a deal the sides discussed involving Arenado was considered a “non-starter.” Given that description of talks between the two sides, it’s not entirely clear if Arenado has been approached by St. Louis brass about the possibility of approving a trade to Houston since the Astros tried to reignite talks or if discussions between the sides did not advance far enough for Mozeliak to even broach the subject with his veteran star.
Even when Arenado first blocked a trade to Houston back in December, reporting was quick to emphasize that Arenado’s reluctance to approve the trade was not necessarily a final decision and that he was hoping to survey his own market as well as see how the Astros planned to improve the club after trading star outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Cubs just before Arenado vetoed a prospective move to Houston. Now that Bregman has landed in Boston, the Red Sox join the Padres and Dodgers as unlikely landing spots for the veteran due to their full infield mixes. The Yankees have a clear hole at third base Arenado could step into fairly seamlessly, but talks between the Bronx and St. Louis have failed to gain traction due to New York’s unwillingness to spend much beyond their current payroll projection.
That leaves the Astros as the final team reportedly on Arenado’s initial list of approved suitors as things stand. It’s possible that the lack of clear alternative options, in tandem with the Astros’ addition of Christian Walker to their infield mix, would be enough to convince Arenado to approve a trade to Houston. At the same time, it’s entirely possible that Arenado would prefer to play the first half of the season out in St. Louis at this point before both he and Mozeliak reassess the situation over the summer, when St. Louis’s position in an unsettled NL Central division will be more clear and Arenado will have a more concrete idea of which clubs are contenders for the coming postseason.
Rome and Woo go on to note that the Astros’ latest push to swing a deal for Arenado highlights the questions surrounding the Astros’ lineup at this point. Longtime second baseman Jose Altuve appears to be moving towards playing left field at least on a part-time basis, though a trade for Arenado would be expected to make the veteran a full-time presence in left while Isaac Paredes slides from third base to second to accommodate Arenado. Should Altuve end up moving to left field for the majority of his reps this year, that leaves the club fairly thin around the infield with only Mauricio Dubon and non-roster invitees like Brendan Rodgers and Luis Guillorme available to play second base on days Altuve is in left and/or back up the rest of the club’s infield mix.
Even if Altuve were to remain at second base close to full time, however, it can be argued the club is still a bat short. Jake Meyers appears poised to be the club’s regular center fielder with Ben Gamel and Chas McCormick handling the outfield corners. Gamel and McCormick both feature significant platoon splits, however, and adding at least one part-time outfield bat to the mix seems prudent whether that’s the addition of Altuve to the outfield mix or an external addition should the veteran remain on the infield dirt.
Free agent options are relatively scarce at this point in the calendar, with Jose Iglesias and Whit Merrifield the best infield pieces still available while Alex Verdugo, Mark Canha, and David Peralta are among a handful of outfield options still on the market. It’s also possible the Astros could look for other alternatives on the trade market, though with rosters largely set for the coming season it’s unclear what players could still be available that would represent a substantial improvement for the club relative to their current situation.