With the NBA play-offs getting underway this week, we take a look at every team’s chances of winning the title
The 2026 NBA play-offs tip off on April 18, but not before a play-in tournament from April 14-17 decides the final two spots in each conference.
Twenty teams still have a chance of making history, but only one will lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy when the Finals conclude in June.
This season has been once again been defined by extraordinary individual brilliance. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.6 points, 6.5 assists and 1.4 steals in what looks set to be a back-to-back MVP campaign.
Victor Wembanyama has announced himself as a genuine superstar in only his third season, and Nikola Jokic is producing yet another triple-double average.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs have steamrolled the Western Conference, while in the East, a resurgent Detroit Pistons side has achieved the conference’s best record.
The race to the title has never felt so wide open at the top, nor so unpredictable lower down.
NBA Seedings
Western Conference
- Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18)
- San Antonio Spurs (62-20)
- Denver Nuggets (54-28)
- Los Angeles Lakers (53-29)
- Houston Rockets (52-30)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33)
- Phoenix Suns* (45-37)
- Portland Trail Blazers* (42-40)
- Los Angeles Clippers* (42-40)
- Golden State Warriors* (37-45)
Eastern Conference
- Detroit Pistons (60-22)
- Boston Celtics (56-26)
- New York Knicks (53-29)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (52-30)
- Toronto Raptors (46-36)
- Atlanta Hawks (46-36)
- Philadelphia 76ers* (45-37)
- Orlando Magic* (45-37)
- Charlotte Hornets* (44-38)
- Miami Heat* (43-39)
*Play-in tournament teams
The play-in games (April 14-17) will determine the 7 and 8 seeds in each conference. In the West, the Suns host the Trail Blazers in the 7-8 game, with the winner earning the 7 seed.
The Clippers and Warriors meet in an elimination game, with the survivor facing the 7-8 loser.
In the East, the 76ers host the Magic, while the Hornets host the Heat.
First-round play-off matchups then run as follows: 1v8, 2v7, 3v6, 4v5 in each conference.
Every NBA playoff team ranked
20. Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are clinging to post-season relevance on the back of one man. Steph Curry, at 37, is still capable of moments that make you forget the rest of the roster, but the supporting cast around him has thinned considerably.
They finish the season as the 10th seed in the West, needing to win two play-in games just to reach the first round. Even if they get there, a potential date with Oklahoma City awaits.
Star Player: Steph Curry Predicted finish: Play-in tournament
19. Miami Heat
Miami’s play-in record speaks for itself – they have been here before and know how to survive in knockout basketball.
The Heat’s culture is a genuine competitive advantage in short, high-pressure games. But the roster as currently constructed does not have the firepower to go deep once the full play-offs begin. Their ceiling is a first-round upset.
Star Player: Bam Adebayo Predicted finish: Play-in tournament
18. Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have been one of the pleasant surprises of the season, winning 44 games and showing a defensive edge that had been missing for years. LaMelo Ball keeps them watchable, but this play-in run looks likely to be the end of the road.
Star Player: LaMelo Ball Predicted finish: Play-in tournament
17. Los Angeles Clippers
After starting 6-21, Tyronn Lue’s side went on a remarkable run to finish above .500 and reach the play-in. Kawhi Leonard has been available for more games than expected and still carries the offensive load.
The problem is depth. A brutal potential first-round meeting with OKC – the team that featured their former star in SGA – makes any deep run look fanciful.
Star Player: Kawhi Leonard Predicted finish: Play-in tournament
16. Portland Trail Blazers
Portland have punched above their weight all season. They are a hard team to beat in a single game, which is exactly the format the play-in provides. Making it through to the first round proper and causing a genuine upset, though, feels like a stretch too far for this group.
Star Player: Scoot Henderson Predicted finish: Play-in tourn ament
15. Phoenix Suns
The Suns go into the play-in with no Kevin Durant this year, but still flexing a strong squad. They are the most dangerous play-in team in either conference, fully capable of winning the 7-8 game and landing in the proper bracket. Whether they can do anything beyond a first-round exit is a different question.
Star Player: Devon Booker Predicted finish: First round
14. Orlando Magic
Orlando are young, long and extremely difficult to score against. Paolo Banchero has taken another step forward this season and gives them a credible offensive option.
The Magic are built for ugly, grind-it-out basketball, the kind that can take down a tired or complacent higher seed on a given night. Reaching the first round from the play-in is a realistic aim.
Star Player: Paolo Banchero Predicted finish: First round
13. Philadelphia 76ers
Joel Embiid’s ongoing injury concerns have defined Philadelphia’s season for years, and this campaign is no different.
When healthy, the 76ers are a genuinely dangerous team with the size and skill to match up with anyone. Embiid’s availability in the play-in and beyond will determine everything. If he is fit, they can win a round. If not, they are an early exit.
Star Player: Joel Embiid Predicted finish: Play-in tournament
12. Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks earned a direct play-off spot with 46 wins, and Trae Young’s ability to generate offence from nothing made them a constant threat to go on a scoring run before he was traded in January. Their matchup with Jaylen Brown and the Celtics in round one is the definition of a tough draw, but now they must rely on their entire roster to overcome one of the most successful franchises in the sport.
Star Player: Jalen Johnson Predicted finish: First round
11. Toronto Raptors
Toronto snuck into the fifth seed in the final days of the regular season and have momentum heading into the play-offs. They are well-coached, defensively sound and do not beat themselves, qualities that can take you further than your record suggests. A first-round series against Cleveland is winnable if they can slow down the Cavaliers’ transition offence.
Star Player: Scottie Barnes Predicted finish: First round
10. Minnesota Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards is the most electrifying player in the play-offs not named SGA, and he showed last post-season just what he is capable of when the stakes are highest. Minnesota’s rematch with the Spurs is a mouthwatering prospect, but that would involve them overcoming the Denver Nuggets.
Star Player: Anthony Edwards Predicted finish: First round
9. Cleveland Cavaliers
Donovan Mitchell is a flat-out play-off performer. He has been one of the most reliable clutch scorers in the league over the last three seasons, and Cleveland’s depth give them a profile that traditionally travels well in the post-season. A semi-final berth is a reasonable expectation, and if Mitchell gets hot, they could go further.
Star Player: Donovan Mitchell Predicted finish: Second round
8. Houston Rockets
The Rockets are the most interesting team in the Western Conference bracket. Kevin Durant and Houston have a point to prove. They face the Lakers in round one, and if reports are accurate that Los Angeles will be without Luka Doncic and potentially Austin Reaves due to injury, Houston has every chance of advancing. A semi-final run is very much on the cards.
Star Player: Kevin Durant Predicted finish: First round
7. Los Angeles Lakers
LeBron James, at 41, is still a play-off force, there is no other way to put it. But the Lakers head into the post-season with significant injury concerns, and questions about their depth and consistency have followed them all season. If healthy, their experience and LeBron’s leadership make them a genuine semi-final contender. Without key pieces, the first round could be the end.
Star Player: LeBron James Predicted finish: Second round
6. New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson has elevated this Knicks team to something few genuinely expected when he arrived. The Knicks finished with 53 wins and have beaten the Celtics three times this season, a statistic that has their fanbase believing this could finally be the year. Karl-Anthony Towns gives them a second option capable of taking over a game, and their physicality and pace is a stylistic nightmare for certain opponents.
Star Player: Jalen Brunson Predicted finish: Second round
5. Boston Celtics
The defending champions are back. Jaylen Brown has been an MVP contender this season in his own right, and Jayson Tatum’s return from injury ahead of schedule gives Boston genuine double-star power heading into the post-season. They are deeper than any team in the East and their defensive system has not missed a beat. A third consecutive Finals appearance is a realistic ambition.
Star Player: Jaylen Brown Predicted finish: NBA Finals
4. Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokic is averaging a triple-double – 27.8 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.9 assists, for the second time in his career and is the most technically gifted player in the sport. Denver’s eight-game winning streak heading into the post-season has quieted the doubters who pointed to his knee injury. A potential second-round meeting with San Antonio and Wembanyama is the most anticipated series on the bracket, and Jokic has a history of rising to exactly that kind of occasion.
Star Player: Nikola Jokic Predicted exit: Conference finals
3. Detroit Pistons
No team in the Eastern Conference has had a better season. Sixty wins, a defensive rating that ranked second in the league, and a returning Cade Cunningham who looks like the player everyone believed him to be when he went first overall in 2021. The Pistons are built in the image of the great Detroit teams of the past, physical, disciplined and utterly relentless. Their first finals since 2005 is very much within reach.
Star Player: Cade Cunningham Predicted finish: Conference finals
2. San Antonio Spurs
Victor Wembanyama’s third NBA season has been nothing short of a revelation. The 22-year-old is averaging 28 points per game, leads the league with 3.1 blocks, and has transformed the Spurs into genuine title contenders two seasons ahead of any realistic schedule. San Antonio went 62-20, the kind of record that demands respect. If Wembanyama is healthy after suffering a rib contusion in the final week of the regular season, the Spurs could go all the way.
Star Player: Victor Wembanyama Predicted finish: Second round
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
The favourites. Back-to-back MVP favourite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads a Thunder team that has been the league’s best for 18 months straight, finishing 64-18 and boasting the top defensive rating in the NBA.
Chet Holmgren anchors the back line, Ajay Mitchell has flourished in an expanded role, and the depth means Oklahoma City can weather anything. They have the talent, the system, the experience of winning last season, and a star player playing the best basketball of his life.
Star Player: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Predicted finish: NBA Champions