Slugger Munetaka Murakami had to settle for a two-year “prove-it” deal with the White Sox this past offseason. It’s still early in the major league career but he is quickly proving it, which means the Sox have to decide on the path forward.
Murakami’s power was never in doubt. His time in Japan had yielded dozens of massive moonshots. The strikeouts were more concerning. He struck out almost 30% of the time in his final NPB seasons. Coming over to North America to face a greater caliber of pitching would probably lead to even more strikeouts. There were particular concerns around his lack of success against high velocity, which he would certainly see more of in MLB.
It’s hard to be a valuable hitter with that many punchouts, though it can be done. In 2025, Mike Trout and James Wood were good hitters despite striking out at least 32% of the time. Ryan McMahon and Oneil Cruz were also in that range and produced below-average results.
Many evaluators thought some team would bite the bullet and invest in Murakami regardless. It’s very rare to have a chance to sign this level of hitter for his age-26 season. There’s risk he could be like Joey Gallo but the upside play is that he resembles Kyle Schwarber. MLBTR predicted he would secure an eight-year deal worth $180MM. Other outlets were not far behind. FanGraphs predicted $154MM over seven years. The Athletic was at $158.5MM over eight years.
Murakami did not get anything close to that. Whether it was due to the strikeouts or his lack of defensive value, teams didn’t want to make a long-term commitment. He signed a two-year, $34MM deal with the White Sox.
We don’t know what other offers Murakami got. Maybe some teams floated three- or four-year arrangements. But from his perspective, if he didn’t get the real long-term offer, going short makes sense. As mentioned, he is still quite young. This deal gives him a chance to spend two years proving himself against big league pitching. He’ll be 26 and 27 in those seasons and will have another chance to seek a long-term deal ahead of his age-28 campaign.
It was thought that maybe there would be an adjustment period for Murakami, but so far he’s doing just fine. The strikeouts are certainly high, as he’s at 32.1% through 109 plate appearances. But he also has ten home runs and a massive 19.3% walk rate. He has a .253/.394/.598 line and a 170 wRC+.
The production is not exactly Schwarber-esque but is pretty close. Schwarber has a 28.5% strikeout rate in his career and hasn’t finished a full season above 31%. He has drawn walks at a 14.2% clip and has been in that range for most of his career. He used to be good for 30ish homers annually but it’s been more like 50ish in recent years. It’s still really early, but Murakami is striking out more often while showing even more power and greater on-base abilities.
Time will tell how it plays out over a larger sample. It’s possible that pitchers find a way to attack him and reduce his effectiveness. Despite the concerns about velocity, he’s doing most of his damage against fastballs. Statcast gives him a .286 batting average and .786 slugging percentage on fastballs, compared to .200 and .400 against breaking pitches and .267 and .467 against offspeed stuff. It’s also possible he continues to get more acclimated to MLB pitching and shaves off some punchouts.
If he continues to be an effective hitter for another few months, it will put the White Sox in an interesting position. It doesn’t feel like Murakami is going to be part of their long-term plans. They are currently rebuilding and aren’t expected to contend this year. The Sox are getting better relative to recent years but are 10-15 and should be on the outside of the playoff race this summer. 2027 could be more viable, but contending next year is no guarantee.
The White Sox could try to sign Murakami to an extension, giving him the nine-figure deal he didn’t get in free agency, but it would be out of character for them to do so. The Sox are one of just two teams, along with the Athletics, who have never given out a nine-figure contract. The largest contract in White Sox franchise history is the five-year, $75MM deal they gave to Andrew Benintendi. If he continues performing anywhere close to this level, he could reasonably ask for twice that much (if not more) on a new long-term deal.
If the Sox are going to break precedent, it should probably be for someone safer, an elite shortstop or center fielder perhaps. A strikeout-prone first baseman is a risky bet, even if it’s someone as exciting as Murakami. If the deal turned into an albatross, it would handcuff the team just as they are looking to put this latest rebuild in the rearview mirror.
This situation would lead to an obvious solution in most cases. If you’re a rebuilding club and you have an attractive player with a short window of club control, you trade him for prospects or other younger players who can contribute to the next competitive window. Trading Murakami this summer would yield a greater trade return than next year. The acquiring club would get Murakami for two playoff races instead of one, which adds to the appeal and the price they would be willing to pay.
But Murakami’s situation is a bit more complex than that. For a team signing a star Japanese player, part of the appeal is on the business side. In addition to whatever Murakami is providing on the field, he is presumably adding to the club’s ratings and merchandise sales in Japan. Given his strong start, he might be adding to those revenue streams on this side of the Pacific Ocean as well.
That could make the calculus more complicated. Trading Murakami this summer would be the best time to maximize his value in terms of a trade return, but it would also surely lead to a reduction in those revenue streams and frustrate the fan base. It’s also possible it could complicate discussions with Japanese free agents in the future, who may not love the prospect of a likely sign-and-trade scenario.
If the Sox decide to hold Murakami, they can keep those revenues flowing for longer. They could then see if contention in 2027 looks more viable. If not, they could still trade him that summer for a notable return, even if it’s less than trading him now. Should they contend and hold him all the way through 2027, they could give him a qualifying offer, which would net them a draft pick if he ends up signing elsewhere. That pick would be nice, but the Sox should be able to get something more attractive via trade. There’s also the risk of Murakami tanking his value by next summer, either due to injury or a decline in production.
It’s an interesting position for the Sox, who are in a transitional phase. In addition to rebuilding, they are on an unusual road to an ownership change. Jerry Reinsdorf has agreed to a succession plan with minority owner Justin Ishbia. For now, Ishbia is investing in the club and has a somewhat open-ended path to majority ownership. From 2029 to 2033, Reinsdorf can decide to finalize the sale of a majority stake to Ishbia. If not within that window, Ishbia gains the right to purchase the majority stake beginning in 2034.
As mentioned, the possibility of a Murakami extension doesn’t seem likely, based on the club’s past spending patterns. While the club is in flux, does that make them even less likely to sign a big deal? It’s also possible the next collective bargaining agreement features some sort of salary floor beginning in 2027, so the Sox may need to spend more money regardless. Perhaps they would want some clarity on that before committing to Murakami or anyone else.
Put it all together and Murakami could be one of the more intriguing players to watch in the coming months. The Sox can make various different choices about how to proceed. They could try to lock him down with a long-term deal but would likely have to shatter their franchise record to do so. A trade this summer would net a big return but would hurt them on the business side. Holding him for a trade in the winter or at next year’s deadline, or even all the way through 2027, could be a better short-term business decision but perhaps worse long-term baseball decision.
Photos courtesy of Ed Szczepanski, Rick Scuteri, Imagn Images