The Miami Dolphins will probably not be very good in 2026.
The team is entering a full-scale rebuild for the first time since 2019. The roster is thin in a number of areas, with many key veterans departing via free agency or trades. Couple that with a rookie head coach and rookie general manager, and the organization isn’t exactly set up to succeed next season.
If all that wasn’t enough, the Dolphins officially have the 2nd-hardest schedule in the NFL, behind only the Arizona Cardinals. Contrary to popular belief, strength-of-schedule is not calculated by looking at win-loss total from the previous year. Instead, “SOS” is calculated by looking at forecasted win totals by Vegas for all 17 opponents.
Of course, this isn’t a perfect science. Teams can outperform expectations, injuries will happen, and coaches will get fired. But Vegas generally takes all this into account, and their projected win totals are often within just one or two games of most teams’ final win total at the end of the season.
With that in in mind, if we go back to this time last year, the Dolphins actually had the 5th-easiest schedule on paper. And as per Warren Sharp on X, the Dolphins were still remarkably bad.
Given these horrendous numbers. it’s a miracle that the team managed to win seven games last year, much. And of course, the roster is considerably worse this year. The Dolphins have the lowest projected win total in NFL in 2026, at just 4.5 wins. So, given the team’s underperformance last year, underperforming that number again would certainly not be out of the picture.
So buckle up Dolphins fans, keep expectations low, and just enjoy the ride. 2026 may not be great, but it’s just the first step in a long process to rebuild this organization into a winning team.