| 5:00 |
: Hello everybody, sorry for the weirdness the last couple weeks.
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| 5:00 |
: I was violently ill last Tuesday and skipped last week’s chat out of necessity
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| 5:00 |
: This week I’m back in AZ and was flying down during the normal chat window
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| 5:01 |
: So, expect this to be a little smaller and we probably won’t go as long as normal. But we’ll see where it takes us!
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| 5:02 |
: Anthony Eyanson is off to a fast start so far, and pitching tonight. He was 40+ after the draft could he be in the top 10 pitchers in next year’s 100?
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| 5:02 |
: Working on the Red Sox list and, spoiler alert, he’ll be in the 50’s
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| 5:02 |
: Health willing I suspect he’ll be in the top 10 pitchers next year
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| 5:03 |
: Aside from being a singles hitter in the SSS, Spencer Jones really is who we thought he’d be, isn’t he?
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| 5:03 |
: Some players are full of surprises; this is not one of them.
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| 5:03 |
: What’s Jonah Cox’s ceiling?
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| 5:04 |
: Good fourth outfielder
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| 5:04 |
: Have you had a chance to see Waldschmidt with the big league club? If so, do you have any initial impressions?
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| 5:05 |
: Just being a good hitter, he’ll get to the power soon enough.
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| 5:05 |
: This is kind of everything we’ve wanted to see from Felnin Celesten, correct? Maybe a little more power? He looks like a superstar.
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| 5:05 |
: With the caveat that the way he’s doing some of this stuff is still a little shaky, yes. I’m pleasantly surprised he’s been this good and that he’s found a way to get to as many fastballs as he has.
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| 5:06 |
: Eric says you’re handling the Red Sox list, eh? How’s it looking so far? Any particular surprises? (Or should I shut the heck up and wait for the list?)
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| 5:08 |
: The rumors are true. Just off the cuff so far: Juan Valera probably would’ve been 50’d too if he stayed healthy; Godbout is a strange ranger in the sense that my read on him is kind of backwards from what the reputation is; Marcus Phillips is a tough eval. Stay patient there.
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| 5:09 |
: With the logjam in CHC OF, when can we expect to see Kevin Alcantara back in the bigs? He has to be one of the leading trade chips for the deadline right? What kind of power are you expecting at present and future for him? The ball just screams off his bat.
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| 5:09 |
: I’m having a hard time seeing him play much for the Cubs. I agree, trade chip, suspect he gets run in the second half with his new employer.
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| 5:10 |
: With 1/4th of a season behind us, does the data show McGonigle and Wetherholt are tracking better than their off-season FV grade? JJ’s defense has been much better than scouting indicated.
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| 5:11 |
: A tiny bit? They were both stuffed pretty high, it’s not like we were down on the guys.
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| 5:11 |
: Favorite fictional depiction of chess in tv/film? Least favorite?
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| 5:12 |
: The Queen’s Gambit was fun, may have been played a part in my wife’s interest in the game, which has been really fun to watch.
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| 5:12 |
: Least favorite is anything where they get the setup of the board wrong.
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| 5:13 |
: Got scared you weren’t doing these anymore. Is Caleb Bonemer now an elite prospect?
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| 5:13 |
: He’s going to rise a lot in whatever form our midseason update takes
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| 5:14 |
: In reading you and Eric’s evaluations, it’s clear that contact percentage is a very meaningful stat.  However, how do you asses this?  K% tends to go up as players progress through the system while BB% tends to go down but contact % seems a bit more erratic.
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| 5:15 |
: you’re on the general shape of the curves there. But there are some guys who are cruisin’ for a bruisin’ (getting away with stuff that higher level arms will exploit) and others who, either from age or inexperience or a path forward with the swing or whatever have a chance to go the other way
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| 5:15 |
: The Orioles have 2027 to get Braxton Bragg going – what’s your confidence level that he’ll be ready for a 40 man add by the end of that (if he doesn’t get nabbed this offseason)?
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| 5:16 |
: Assuming no injury complications that timeline doesn’t sound scary. He’s another who could’ve been in contention for the 50 FV if he’d been healthy
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| 5:16 |
: Do you think the eventual move to Vegas will make it harder on Athletics pitchers and is that something you consider for your appraisal of guys like Jump and Arnold?
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| 5:18 |
: We try to evaluate agnostic of environment
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| 5:18 |
: Theoretically Vegas would be a tough place to pitch
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| 5:18 |
: But maybe they’ll play their games inside the Bellagio. At that point all bets are off.
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| 5:19 |
: Thanks for still doing the chat amid all the wierdness!
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| 5:19 |
: You’re welcome! I like doing them and would’ve last week if I literally could’ve stayed awake long enough.
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| 5:19 |
: Mikey Romero has had a slow start, but the Red Sox desperately need a 3b. Is there any hope?
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| 5:20 |
: I’m skeptical. Has the power to help but I fear he’s going to be limited as a hitter
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| 5:20 |
: Small sample size, but Yohendrick Pinango is pulling far less in the bigs (31%) than he did in the minors. Think he’s still trying to play catch up to major league pitching?
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| 5:21 |
: He’s killing it right now. Probably not getting a ton to tug.
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| 5:22 |
: Malcolm Moore is suddenly on a ridiculous tear and now his year long numbers look good after everything looked terrible (at least superficially) for a year and a half.  Any insight into whether this could be a delayed pop from a guy who’s a) a catcher and b) had injuries?  Or possibly just a hot streak and it’s so early that the year long numbers are noisy still?
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| 5:22 |
: First: Be very, very, very skeptical of anybody’s numbers the week after they roll through Asheville this year.
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| 5:23 |
: The Tourists are allowing nine runs per game. They play at altitude in a tiny park and in a league where the homer rate has just about doubled year over year.
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| 5:24 |
: Moore may have turned a corner, and I hope he has. But we need to see more before getting too excited.
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| 5:25 |
: But also, look at these results: https://www.milb.com/asheville/schedule/2026-05
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| 5:25 |
: Asheville just had a 12 game home stand and gave up 145 runs.
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| 5:26 |
: What’s your rapid ELO? Also, thoughts re Aaron Walton and Bryan Rincon recently?
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| 5:27 |
: I just got over 1500 for the first time in Blitz, which is what I’ve mostly done lately. Walton is one where I need to source the power data b/c the glove was always promising so if there’s something to the pop here, that’d be exciting. I’m going to try to do that now…
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| 5:28 |
: How different are the baseballs league to league?
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| 5:28 |
: fantastic question
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| 5:28 |
: I see Mike Sirota was just promoted to AA.  Any idea if this took so long because of any concerns on the Dodgers’ part or just that they have eleventy billion OF prospects and it was easier to get everyone full PT by not promoting him?
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| 5:28 |
: I’m assuming the latter, they’ve got the luxury of waiting
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| 5:28 |
: Can Laz Montes be a viable starting OF in MLB – especially with a 31% K-rate that he currently has in AA?
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| 5:29 |
: I think he can, he’s obviously on the tight rope. But I see paths to keep the swing and miss in the stratosphere while maintaining the power.
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| 5:29 |
: Since you’re working on the Red Sox list curious if you view Eduardo Rivera as having much of a chance to develop as a starter longer term?
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| 5:30 |
: I am too (sorry, haven’t gotten to him just yet).
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| 5:30 |
: Thinking about a Cal League roadie. Favorite parks?
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| 5:30 |
: That’s a tough league for ballparks/travel. If you’ve never been, it’s Steinbeck California, not beach California
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| 5:31 |
: That said, the new park in Ontario looks really nice on tv… Fresno’s facility is Triple-A quality, good place to watch a game if you can get some shade.
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| 5:34 |
: RE: Aaron Walton, apparently his measurable raw power is now above average per a source. That’s.. exciting.
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| 5:34 |
: Follow up on the contact % question.  Are there certain guys that you see and feel they’ll get exploited as they progress and others that you feel will improve their bat to ball skills?  How do you differentiate those types?
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| 5:37 |
: There are definitely things that give me pause. None of it is definitive — it’s not ‘Aron Estrada won’t hit because of THIS ONE SECRET THING’ — but a few markers to watch for: steep swing, long/slow swing, pronounced front side leak, huge head movement, long load…
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| 5:40 |
: Henry Godbout is a good example here. Unassailable contact data. Basically never missed fastballs in college. Does it a little differently at the plate, it’s a challenge to untangle whether his odd setup and swing are an orange flag or if ‘hitter’s hit’ is the order of the day.
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| 5:40 |
: You’re the Mariners GM. What do you do to turn things around?
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| 5:41 |
: You can never have enough bats, so I’d be open for business on just about everybody on the system.
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| 5:42 |
: Arroyo has always felt like a particularly good trade candidate. Not a clear role for him, skillset doesn’t play all that well in the park, he does things that light up a model… Probably more valuable to someone else.
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| 5:42 |
: By and large though, the team has a lot of good veteran players, many of whom aren’t performing their best. You gotta wait that one out.
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| 5:43 |
: Now that conference tournaments are starting, do you have a favorite draft prospect you’re looking forward to seeing play?
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| 5:43 |
: Looking forward to seeing TCU’s bats. I’m behind on amateur stuff so I don’t have a great answer on favorites at this point
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| 5:43 |
: Any data on Kayson Cunningham’s batted balls?  I can see that he has zero HR and his scouting report didn’t indicate big power, but is there any indication that he can develop modest power or is this a zero power making him non-viable as an everyday player situation?
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| 5:43 |
: I’ll try to source that too
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| 5:43 |
: He’s not a real big guy, it’s hit>power
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| 5:44 |
: He could play everyday but he’s going to need to max out on the bat to do it, particularly since he’s not a good defender.
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| 5:44 |
: Was your food poisoning a) threw up a couple times but now you’re good, or b) one moment you’re scared you’re gonna die, the next you’re scared you won’t die?
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| 5:44 |
: The first half of A and then all of B
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| 5:44 |
: How much weight do you put on things like a college player’s conference performance, particularly where the conference clearly stronger than the out of conference schedule?  I see it discussed a lot but I do wonder if that slices the data so thin that it’s vulnerable to SSS noise
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| 5:45 |
: Personally, I’m going to put more value on my visual observations and then use the data to shore up or challenge those impressions
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| 5:46 |
: The college game is in a spot where the surface, and even first order peripherals can be pretty misleading
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| 5:47 |
: All those guys putting up big power numbers to the opposite field are going to struggle to replicate that production with a wood bat.
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| 5:47 |
: (Well, maybe not in Asheville)
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| 5:47 |
: Favorite Giants prospect?
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| 5:47 |
: Keyner or Level but they’ll be behind a few other guys
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| 5:51 |
: OF Braylon Payne hit two more home runs today and now has a .997 OPS and .333 ISO as a 19-year old in High-A. Any thoughts on Payne’s profile or performance thus far?
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| 5:53 |
: He’s made some adjustments at the plate year over year. Dropped the leg kick, load looks calmer. His swing has always been a little odd, choppy. I still see that somewhat but looks like he’s getting the ball out front a little better this year. I don’t know that that’s the case, I’m just watching swings in the background, but his GB rate is down substantially, which tends to happen when you are catching it out front.
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| 5:54 |
: Elite athlete, really toolsy, him finding a more functional swing would be a very exciting development
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| 5:54 |
: House getting sent down is kind-of-a-shocker, no? Is this to get a longer look to get Tena some regular reps, to ptentially bring up Yohandy, or maybe they just think this old house is a fixer-upper?
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| 5:55 |
: Not sure what the plan is at the moment, but for House… He’s been mediocre/bad so far, reset at AAA feels appropriate.
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| 5:56 |
: Eric last week mentioned how if Nolan Perry gets to 100 innings he could be a top 100 arm, do you agree?
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| 5:57 |
: I don’t think it’s out of the question. Good athlete, like his ability to spin it. Want to see him do this a little longer but big arrow up guy
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| 5:58 |
: For a guy who was wild in ’24 to throw strikes like this after surgery is unusual
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| 5:59 |
: Have you seen anything from Eldridge that give you hope about his contact ability or is this more likely to be something that either suddenly clicks or never does?
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| 5:59 |
: 21 year old with huge levers, not surprised that he’s going to need an acclimation period
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| 6:00 |
: Aaron Judge was 24 when he debuted and he struck out 44% of the time as a rookie
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| 6:00 |
: Higher ceiling: Anthony Eyanson or Ryan Sloan?
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| 6:01 |
: About the same, hard to get any higher.
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| 6:01 |
: Biggest discrepancy you’ve ever seen between athlete and baseball ability in prospects?  in both directions – great athlete, lousy ballplayer and crap athlete, great player.  Michael Jordan doesn’t count
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| 6:02 |
: For the former, there’s tons. Go look at Shaq Thompson’s numbers, or Neymar trying to take BP. For the latter, even the guys with bad bodies have some kind of athleticism that lets them play at the highest levels. Like, Bartolo Colon was a good athlete, he was just a big guy in not great shape.
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| 6:03 |
: Follow up: will broader application of statcast in the minors help suss out ball differences between leagues?
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| 6:03 |
: In theory, yeah.
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| 6:04 |
: For years, everyone in the minors below Triple-A has used the same ball and I think that’s still the case; I just think that the ball has changed.
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| 6:04 |
: If you were the Pirates, would you have any hesitation drafting Jackson Flora if he were available. I know there’s no such thing as too many arms, but maybe, not enough bats?
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| 6:04 |
: If you think he’s the guy, you take him
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| 6:05 |
: They’ve been able to convert their arm surplus into bats later on
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| 6:05 |
: And can do so again as needed
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| 6:06 |
: Would you guys ever consider publishing a table of plate discipline / batted ball / pitch shape / release traits in each org list like you did for the AFL preview?
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| 6:07 |
: It’s in The Board… as for putting it on the list, I can chat with Eric about it. I imagine we’d have to figure out the aesthetics
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| 6:07 |
: are the Blue Jays turning into an upper echelon pitching dev org? Seems like lots of breakout arms this year
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| 6:07 |
: I think the way they build strength gets guys to where they’re going more quickly than in a lot of other places, if that makes sense.
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| 6:08 |
: Is it nearing time to bump Roldy Brito up to high A?
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| 6:09 |
: Yeah, I’d be surprised if he’s not in Spokane for at least a month or two.
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| 6:09 |
: Level too, of the promising Cal League SS’s
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| 6:09 |
: Morales obviously just got bumped
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| 6:10 |
: I think I’d want to see Holliday do it for a while longer. Maybe try to see if he can eat into the swing and miss
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| 6:10 |
: I’m riffing here, probably a sign I should hang it up and get out to the field.
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| 6:10 |
: Thanks again for your patience lately, hopefully we can get back on a normal cadence next week.
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