Trade Deadline Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

One year after coming up a few inches short of a championship, the Blue Jays find themselves at the bottom of the AL East. They’re a season-worst nine games under .500 after dropping six of their first eight coming out of the All-Star Break. Only the Angels, A’s and Royals are below them in the American League. They didn’t expect to be here, but a sale seems inevitable.

Record: 46-55 (8.6% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)

For other entries in this series, check out this post.

Sell Mode

Impending Free Agents: Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Daulton Varsho, George Springer, Myles Straw (club option), Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, Yimi García

The Jays have eight impending free agents, most of whom are big names on weighty contracts. Their top trade chips are in the rotation, as Gausman and Bieber could each be targets for teams seeking a playoff-caliber starter. Neither is having his best season, but they’re each among the most talented rental arms likely to be available.

Gausman is playing on a $23MM salary in the final season of his five-year, $110MM free agent deal. It was one of the better free agent pitching investments in recent years. The veteran righty had a pair of top 10 Cy Young finishes, hasn’t missed any time with injuries, and has a 3.62 ERA over 849 1/3 innings in a Toronto uniform. He posted a sub-4.00 mark in each of the first four seasons of the contract.

The 35-year-old has had a few stumbles as the August 3 deadline approaches. His 4.51 ERA through 21 starts is his highest in seven years. Gausman was pitching at his usual pace through the end of May, posting a 3.13 ERA while striking out 24% of opponents through his first 12 starts. He has allowed 6.56 earned runs per nine over his most recent nine outings, mixing in a handful of clunkers as his walk rate has spiked.

There hasn’t been any dramatic change to his stuff or swing-and-miss rates. The durability, track record, and stuff will make him one of the better alternatives to Tarik Skubal on the trade market. Teams like the Braves, Cubs or Phillies could be involved. Gausman will be owed around $6.7MM from the deadline through season’s end. He isn’t eligible for a qualifying offer, having previously received one, so a trade would be the Jays’ only means of recouping compensation. Gausman acknowledged the possibility that last night’s start would be his final home appearance at Rogers Centre, even as his focus remains on helping Toronto turn things around (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com).