Casey Mize Dealt to Padres for Kash Considerations

The Padres got the second-best pitcher traded by the Tigers at the deadline.

On Monday, Casey Mize was traded from Detroit to San Diego in exchange for pitching prospects Kash Mayfield and Jackson Wolf. The Padres also got minor league infielder Gage Workman in the deal.

Mize has been exceptional in 2026… when healthy. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA and 2.58 FIP in 86 2/3 innings. His 2.9 WAR is already a career best. He’s thrown strikes, missed bats, and kept the ball in the ballpark. He looks very much like the pitcher the Tigers were hoping to get when they drafted him first overall way back in 2018.

Unfortunately, Mize has also looked like the pitcher the Tigers ultimately got — or didn’t get — since his debut. He missed a few weeks in May with an adductor strain, and a few more weeks in June with adductor inflammation. Those trips to the injured list were the fifth and sixth of his career. He missed most of 2022 and all of 2023 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, and missed time with less significant hamstring injuries in 2024 and 2025. Mize exits Detroit having thrown just 526 2/3 innings over 105 outings spread across seven years; he’ll be a free agent this offseason.

Still, at just 29 years old, the potential is clearly still there. The fastball, while down to 93.5 mph in 2026 compared to the 95.5 mph he showed in 2024, is getting a bit more vertical rise this year. Batters are now swinging under the pitch, whiffing on 26.2% of swings compared to 20.6% last year. When they do make contact, their hard-hit rate has dropped from 52.5% to 34.8%, and their popup rate is 16.7% — the 10th highest rate against a four-seamer this year.

A step forward can also be found in his secondaries. Mize’s splitter was a major issue in 2025. It was of the 10 least valuable pitches in the majors on a rate basis, at -1.9 runs per 100 pitches. This year, it’s been worth +0.8 per 100 pitches, or a nearly three-run swing in his favor. He’s thrown the pitch about a tick slower, with a bit more spin and a bit less depth. Batters have been far more likely to find themselves out in front of the pitch and unable to barrel it up. His slider tells a similar story, with less velocity, more break, and better results.

Again, all this amounts to an exceptional season for Mize when he’s been healthy. In fact, his 2.9 WAR is 18th in the majors, tying him for the most by any pitcher moved at the deadline. And it just so happens the pitcher he’s tied with is Tarik Skubal, who the Tigers traded to the Dodgers on Saturday.

Now, I’ll get to the prospects and the Padres in a moment, but that factlet alone makes this deal feel not so hot for Tigers fans. Detroit has gone 32-20 since June 1, the third-best record in the majors behind only the Red Sox and Brewers. Their +102 run differential over that stretch is the best by more than 30 runs. Yes, they dug a massive hole going 6-22 in May, but they reached the deadline just 2 1/2 games out of the final Wild Card spot. With Skubal and Mize and a red-hot lineup, the Tigers could have had one of the best rosters in the American League for the final two months of the season.

That’s not to say there weren’t question marks. Jack Flaherty recently landed on the injured list with a forearm strain and is out for the foreseeable future, adding further doubt to the health of the rotation given Skubal’s and Mize’s injuries. The bullpen also would have required some serious deadline additions to be competitive in the postseason. With playoff odds already quite low and valuable trade chips on expiring deals, the Tigers were in a precarious position.

Of course, “precarious position” also applied to the Padres, who saw fit to buy at the deadline. While their record is the inverse of the Tigers at 58-54, their playoff odds are only marginally better at 29.7%. Given the Dodgers’ status as league juggernaut, San Diego’s only shot at the postseason is in a competitive Wild Card field, where they’re currently a game out.

Mize should help. He instantly leaps to one of the top spots in their rotation, supplementing the very good Michael King, the newly acquired Robbie Ray, and… well, that’s kind of the point. Their rotation has struggled mightily this year, ranking 25th in the majors at 4.3 WAR.

If Mize and Ray can stay healthy and productive, that could very well represent the edge the Padres need. Their bullpen has been elite with Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, and Bradgley Rodriguez, among other strong performances. Their lineup has been better of late while still holding potential for more. They’re also one of the better teams in the majors both defensively and on the bases. A competent rotation would give the Padres one of the more well-rounded rosters in the majors. And if Mize is this version of himself, that’s not a bad top starter to take into a playoff series.

The cost for the Padres was Mayfield, who Brendan Gawlowski ranked second in a shallow San Diego system as a 45+-FV prospect this list cycle, and Wolf. Mayfield, 21, was a first-round pick in 2024 and has made it to High-A this year, with impressive strikeout numbers and concerning walk numbers — not uncommon for pitching prospects moved this time of year. He stands out at 6-foot-4 and has a graceful, low-maintenance delivery from the left side. Brendan wrote in late April that Mayfield has “lofty control and command projections.” More from his report:

“Atypically for a high school first-rounder, Mayfield isn’t an especially hard thrower. He’s touched 97 at points in his career but tends to sit in the low 90s. His fastball is effective because even though he’s tall, he gets down the mound well and releases the ball low and on a nearly flat plane. While he’s not precise with his location, he almost religiously avoids the bottom half of the zone with it, and generates plenty of whiffs, chases, and popups on fastballs up. The pitch also sets up his plus change, a nasty fader that slinks to the glove side at the last second. Getting a better feel for his sweeping slider is a developmental goal going forward, as it’s not especially sharp in its current form; the way Mayfield pronates suggests it’ll be a real battle to get this pitch any better than average. Learning how to consistently hit the back door and the back foot will be key.”

Of course, the reason the Padres needed to buy starters at the deadline is that they’ve often struggled to develop them on their own. Brendan noted after the deal that there’s some potential for Mayfield to add more velocity. If the Tigers can develop it, he could leap up prospect rankings.

The Tigers also picked up Wolf in the deal. He’s another lefty starter and stands even taller than Mayfield at 6-foot-7, but he throws even softer and has given up tons of homers and walks throughout his minor league career. He has a 7.05 ERA and 5.88 FIP in Triple-A this year. Wolf was traded from the Padres to the Pirates in 2023 in a package for Rich Hill and Ji Man Choi, though he was later designated for assignment and reacquired by San Diego. He made it to the majors for a single start in 2023 but hasn’t returned, nor has he returned to our prospect lists since receiving a 40 FV grade that season. Brendan noted after the deal that Wolf profiles as Triple-A depth, which means he could get some starts for the now almost-rotation-less Tigers at some point this year.

In addition to Mize, the Padres also got Gage “Tater” Workman. Excuse me. They got Gage Tater Workman — yes, that is his real middle name. Workman is a 26-year-old infielder with a 41 wRC+ in 55 plate appearances in the majors between last year and this year. But that doesn’t really capture how much intrigue there is in his profile. He has a rare mix of power and defense that gives a fairly plausible path to big-time WAR. Dan Szymborski named him one of ZiPS “boom” hitters ahead of the 2025 season, for instance. The Cubs were curious enough to take Workman in the Rule 5 Draft last year, and the White Sox were curious enough to take him from the Cubs after that didn’t work out. Workman eventually returned to Detroit when that didn’t work out, either. He has a 128 wRC+ and 30% strikeout rate in Triple-A this year. Brendan and Eric Longenhagen ranked him 29th with a 40 FV grade on this offseason’s Tigers list:

Workman is a player of extremes. His grooved uphill path produces above-average raw and actionable power, but his tendency to swing and miss — particularly on soft stuff, which constantly gets him off balance — has consistently led to bottom-of-the-scale contact rates and just about untenable strikeout totals. Unlike most large guys with that kind of offensive profile, though, Workman is a very good defensive infielder, and his work at third in particular is just a notch below some of the game’s best defenders at the hot corner.

That makes this deal fairly exciting for the Padres. They addressed their biggest need with one of the best options available at the deadline in Mize. And while Workman is fairly labeled as a long-shot, there’s more upside than you’d expect for a prospect going to the “buyer” in the deal. It seems a nice compromise for a team angling for the playoffs in 2026.

For the Tigers, well, the excitement level is inextricably linked to the decision to trade Skubal. Again, their odds weren’t bad, but once they chose to deal from the top, Mize was suddenly a rental arm with tenuous health on a team with poor odds. Those are typically the players who get dealt at the deadline. Mayfield is an exciting prospect who could reach the majors in time to help the current young core in the future, assuming they’re still relevant when they get there.