FanGraphs Power Rankings: August 3–9

Even as teams have settled into their new normal following all the activity surrounding the trade deadline, the standings haven’t become any clearer with two months of the regular season left to play. There are still wide open division races and crowded Wild Card chases. For the teams already looking forward to next year, the stretch run is an opportunity to evaluate their rosters, and maybe play a little spoiler against those vying for the postseason.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

…

The Red Sox had their streak of consecutive series wins snapped at nine on Sunday when they dropped a second straight game to the Athletics. It was also the first time Boston lost back-to-back games since losing a pair against the Nationals on June 30 and July 1. The Sox are about to receive a major reinforcement: Catcher Adley Rutschman, their big trade deadline acquisition, should be activated off the IL this week. Meanwhile, both Roman Anthony and Garrett Crochet made some significant strides as they work their way back from their respective injuries. That trio should give quite a boost down the stretch to a team that’s already playing like one of the best in baseball.

The Brewers began last week by taking three of four against the Pirates and thus dealing a significant blow to Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes. Then, Milwaukee won a pair of dramatic games against the Twins on Saturday and Sunday to secure another series win. Kyle Harrison made his return from the IL on Wednesday, holding the Pirates scoreless over five innings. Even though he had to be removed from that start a little early due to cramping, he should be fine to make his next scheduled start this week. Meanwhile, Jacob Misiorowski continues to dominate. He registered his 200th strikeout of the season on Sunday, needing just 129 1/3 innings to hit that milestone. Only Spencer Strider in 2023 logged fewer innings (123 1/3) by the time he crossed the threshold. The Brewers have a huge four-game series against the Dodgers coming up this weekend in a potential playoff preview.

Last week, the Cubs swept the Dodgers, beat the Blue Jays in a makeup game on Thursday, and then won a series this past weekend against the Royals. Despite going 6-1 across those seven games, they managed to gain just a single game on the Brewers in the NL Central and are still 5.5 games back in the division. In more encouraging news, Clay Holmes was activated off the IL on Saturday, and though he didn’t look particularly sharp against the Royals (four runs in four innings), Chicago’s starting rotation is in a much better place than it was a week ago. The imminent returns of reliever Daniel Palencia and starter Edward Cabrera will further bolster the pitching staff.

The Rays wrapped up a perfect week with back-to-back sweeps of the Rockies and Mariners. That winning streak helped them gain three games on the Yankees, and they now have the AL’s largest division lead at 5.5 games. After posting a 16 wRC+ from the All-Star break through August 2, Jonathan Aranda collected 10 hits and a home run last week.

The Braves had an eight-game winning streak snapped on Friday in an unfortunate extra-innings loss against the Yankees. Raisel Iglesias allowed two runs in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game before Tyler Kinley gave up the winning run on a sac fly that brought home the zombie runner in the 10th. After losing again on Saturday, Atlanta got a modicum of revenge in the series finale, narrowly scraping out an extra-innings win. All three games against New York were decided by a single run. As for the Yankees, the big story line of the week was the debut of George Lombard Jr.. He blasted a home run in his first game, tallied hits in four straight games to start his career, and added a second home run on Saturday, giving him a 191 wRC+ across his first five games (20 plate appearances). He’s also flashing some smooth defense at shortstop (3 DRS, 1 OAA in just 47 innings).

The Dodgers finally snapped their seven-game losing streak on Saturday with a dramatic 2-1 extra-innings win in Arizona. They couldn’t keep it going on Sunday and wound up losing the series to the Diamondbacks. This little bump in the road is a good reminder that even though Los Angeles landed Tarik Skubal at the deadline, the team isn’t unbeatable. The good news for the Dodgers is that Blake Snell will be activated from the IL on Tuesday, Tyler Glasnow continued his rehab assignment, and Shohei Ohtani began a throwing program. When healthy, that trio would fortify a rotation that already has Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Justin Wrobleski.

The Diamondbacks and Padres split a massive four-game series last week that could have had huge ramifications on the NL Wild Card race. The split meant neither team gained any ground, and they both followed that up with series wins over the weekend. For Arizona, reinforcements are on their way. Michael Soroka will be activated off the IL on Monday, Justin Martinez and Jordan Lawlar shouldn’t be far behind, and Corbin Burnes and Zac Gallen could be back by early September if everything goes right during their rehab process. That’s a lot of talent that could be rejoining the roster down the stretch. For San Diego, this strong start to the second half has been driven by much-needed production from its stars. Jackson Merrill hit home runs in back-to-back games on Saturday and Sunday and has produced a 177 wRC+ since the All-Star break.

To the relief of both the Rangers and Mariners, the Astros couldn’t put any distance between them and their division rivals last week. After losing back-to-back series to the Blue Jays and Padres, Houston sits just a half game ahead of Texas in the standings, with Seattle four games out of first. A critical series between the Astros and Mariners is on tap for this weekend.

The White Sox couldn’t keep pace with the Red Sox last week, getting swept in three games. The final game of that series was a wild 12-11 back-and-forth affair that lasted 13 innings. Thankfully, Chicago bounced back with an important series win against the Guardians this past weekend to extend its AL Central lead to 3.5 games over the Tigers and four over Cleveland. The White Sox have another intra-divisional matchup against the Tigers this coming weekend. On the season, the South Siders have a 20-13 record against their AL Central rivals, the second-best divisional record in the AL.

The Luis Arraez era in Philadelphia started off well, as he logged seven hits and a home run in his first week with the Phillies. The defensive realignment that came with Arraez’s arrival hasn’t been a disaster yet; the Phils made a single error in six games since the trade deadline, and Statcast’s FRV has the team at +1 since August 4. Maybe the bigger problem is the relief corps, which has blown the game in five of the team’s last seven losses dating back to July 27.

These two teams have done just enough to separate themselves from the huge morass of clubs in the tier below. The Tigers’ second-half surge has been a huge surprise. They have the third-best record in the AL since the All-Star break and won both of their series last week after selling at the trade deadline. Their offense has scored eight or more runs in eight of their last 11 games, while their pitching staff has tossed five shutouts during that same stretch. Detroit now has the best run differential in the AL and sits just a single game behind the Rangers in the Wild Card race. Dillon Dingler collected eight hits and three home runs last week, and Jackson Jobe was activated off the IL on Saturday and held the Giants to just a single hit over five scoreless innings.

As for the Rangers, they bounced back from being swept by the Astros two weekends ago by winning both of their series last week. They’re just a half game back in the AL West and hold the final AL Wild Card slot.

This huge group of teams includes a bunch of playoff long shots, teams looking to end the year on a high note, and a handful of would-be contenders in the midst of greatly disappointing seasons.

The Blue Jays have to be absolutely exhausted after a marathon of a week. They started off in Houston, traveled to Chicago for a single makeup game on Thursday against the Cubs, and ended their road trip in Philadelphia. Although they came away with a 4-3 record, four of their seven games last week went to extra innings, and two of their three losses were walk-offs. Toronto’s playoff hopes are slim, and these next two weeks could be crucial. The Jays host the Red Sox and Yankees in a seven-game homestand this week and then travel to face the Rays and Yankees again next week. If the Blue Jays can emerge from that gauntlet with eight or nine wins, there might yet be some hope for a late-season surge back into the playoff picture.

The Cardinals battled back to .500 with series wins over the Yankees and Rockies last week. At 3.5 games back in the NL Wild Card race, they’re not totally out of the running yet. With their rebuild off to a fast start, the rest of this season needs to be focused on maintaining this momentum and then taking another big step forward next year. Giving some big league playing time to guys like Quinn Mathews and Joshua Báez should probably be a priority, just to get them acclimated to the majors before handing them significant roles in 2027. And, hey, if everything breaks St. Louis’ way, a surprise playoff berth could be part of building that scaffolding for the future.

The Reds just can’t catch a break. Hunter Greene was placed on the IL last week with a partial tear of his UCL in his right elbow and will undergo surgery this week. Depending on the severity of the tear, we probably won’t see Greene pitch again until late 2027 or even 2028. That’s a huge blow for Cincinnati, and it throws the near future of this ballclub up in the air. With Greene and Chase Burns leading the rotation and Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart anchoring the lineup, you could kind of squint and see how this roster could turn into a contender next year. Now, with one half of that pitching pair sidelined for an extended period, it’s a lot less clear how this team might turn things around so quickly.

On a weekend where the franchise celebrated its 50th anniversary, the Mariners characteristically fell on their face, getting swept by the Rays in three games. Including a series loss to the Tigers earlier in the week, Seattle’s recent 1-5 performance has dropped the team to a season-worst seven games under .500. This was probably the last chance for Seattle to really get back into the AL playoff picture. Starting Tuesday, the Mariners head out on a nine-game road trip through New York, Houston, and Milwaukee, followed by a homestand against the Cubs and Phillies. If they can’t show any life during this stretch of playoff-caliber opponents, they should probably start thinking about how to fix the roster for next year.

The Rockies have definitely improved this year — an easy task after such a historically futile season in 2025 — but they’ve still got work to do to keep that momentum moving forward. Finding a way to get Zac Veen some playing time in the big leagues should be step one. He notched 11 hits and four home runs last week at Triple-A, including a 5-for-5 day with 17 total bases on Saturday. The outfield in Colorado is a little crowded with Jake McCarthy (12 hits, two home runs last week), Mickey Moniak, and Cole Carrigg taking up three spots, but Veen is knocking down the door.

The Athletics finally won a series for the first time in 12 tries this past weekend, snapping Boston’s series winning streak mentioned way up top. It was also the first time the A’s had won back-to-back games since winning a pair against the Angels on June 25–26. The two wins come on the heels of the dismissal of long-time general manager David Forst on Friday. He had been part of the organization for nearly three decades and in the role of GM since 2015. With the team’s planned move to Las Vegas quickly approaching, why not add a major front office transition to the equation? Forst’s replacement will be tasked with assembling a contender by the time the team leaves West Sacramento for good.