Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 8/11/26

Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody

Brendan Gawlowski: Apologies for the delay but we’re here now

Brendan Gawlowski: This will be my last chat until September, taking a few weeks off starting with the weekend

Brendan Gawlowski: Just got back from area codes with Eric, so if you have questions about 17 year old baseball players, this is a great time

Graham Lewis: Drew Cavanaugh gonna get a lot of run the rest of the season. A cool story. Are you coming around on him as a possible regular at all?

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s possible but I think others in the system are more likely to win the job in the long term.

Brendan Gawlowski: One thing that jumps out about Cavanaugh is how busy he is as a receiver. Tons of body and glove movement. Unusual in this day and age.

Oliver: Recently read Future Value (by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel) and was curious about how Dominican/other international scouting has changed since 2019? We still obviously don’t have an int’l draft, but has the scene undergone any major shifts since? Is something major slated in the next CBA?

Brendan Gawlowski: International has changed a bit, objective measurements are a feature of the landscape there now too.

Brendan Gawlowski: That said, it’s still a lot of dice rolls on 12-14 year olds in a way that feels pretty uncomfortable

StuShea: Hi Brendan! Thanks for the chat. When you scouted, did you rate by 20-80? A team-specific metric? Or the poor-to-outstanding scale that a lot of older scouts used?

Brendan Gawlowski: We did 20-80 on the tool grades with some below/average/above on smaller components like throwing accuracy. For the topline grade, we used the A-D system.

opifijikl: What is the craziest thing you’ve seen happen in a game you’ve been scouting?

Brendan Gawlowski: I could write a book

Brendan Gawlowski: Off the top of my head, a 0-0 game that ended on a wild pitch that ricocheted off the catcher and landed in one of the dugouts stands out

Brendan Gawlowski: Later that very series, Josh Hood struck out and dropped an F bomb, which is pretty standard stuff

Brendan Gawlowski: But one fan in Modesto was not having it: “HEY!!! YOU WATCH YOUR MOUTH! THERE ARE KIDS HERE!!!”

Brendan Gawlowski: The fan got a light round of applause and I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone stare daggers quite like Hood at the fan

David Wiers: Have you see much of Painter? Gopheritis was always in him, but now his K%-BB% is 10.6%, tied for 94th out of 134 SP with at least 80 IP.

Brendan Gawlowski: Looked really good his last couple starts. I would stay patient on this one.

Phillip Denny: When does a pro team generally start looking at high schoolers? Like I imagine the dudes draft eligible for 2027 are already scouted, but are the 2028? 2029?

Brendan Gawlowski: Sliding scale based on the talent level. The area guys are understandably focused on the upcoming draft but they’re pretty on top of what’s coming down the pike too. There are enough camps/showcases that it’s fairly easy to see who (most of) the dudes are a couple years in advance

pfitz23: Where do you think Caden Hunter would rank in the Orioles system if FG were to do a midseason update?

Brendan Gawlowski: Pretty high.

opifijikl: I ask all writers this so excuse me if I’ve asked before, but what’s your favorite traditional baseball stat?

Brendan Gawlowski: Batting average. Pretty good indicator of how much I’m going to enjoy watching them hit.

rossredcay: What would Enddy Azocar need to do the rest of this year to make the offseason T100?  Dude has been on a tear.

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s already on it!

Brendan Gawlowski: I shoulda put him on for the BoSox list, I chickened out

mr. underhill: Rangers farm. Anyone rising quicker than you thought? Special hitters? Rangers don’t seem to have the helium hitters ever! Walcott trending for debut mid 2027? Is it at SS, 3B or RF? Keep up awesome work!

Brendan Gawlowski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trade-deadline-prospects-guide-texas-range…

rossredcay: Any idea what’s going on with JD Dix since he was promoted?  The power seems to have disappeared.

Brendan Gawlowski: I wouldn’t ride the roller coaster with this one. He’s a long levered 20 year old switch hitter in High-A, I think he’s going to be a relatively slow burn.

grover: How big of an organizational shake-up do you anticipate with the A’s after Forst’s “mutual” parting of ways? What would you expect the mood/temperament to be within the staff/coaching ranks during this transition?

Brendan Gawlowski: Very curious to see what they do. I don’t have a feel for it, just see some challenges ahead regardless of what they do next. They’ve kept it steady there for a long time, lot of people who have been with that org for years, in ways good and in places stale. Even with an outside hire, changing course is going to be more like piloting an aircraft carrier than a speedboat, I think.

WarrenJ: Has Carlos Virahonda’s stock gone up this season in your estimation, gone down, or stayed about the same?  He’s more in my consciousness now than he was, for whatever that’s worth.

Brendan Gawlowski: I still think he’s a good backup catching prospect with an everyday ceiling. No real change to the projection, but some of the bad left tail outcomes are off the board now

Alexander: Thoughts on Lombard’s first week?

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s a good player and I’m glad we had him in our Top 20

phillyg: Briceno on a tear since he got back from surgery and now called up to AAA after only a few weeks. Anything about his outlook change since the new t100 after he’s shown this out of the gate?

Brendan Gawlowski: Not really, still projects as a power hitting 1B/DH type. Glad he came through the injury unscathed

Nick: Any insight on Dub Gleed besides the 80 grade name? The fella had 2 HR last year and now 16 HR this year, decent find?

Brendan Gawlowski: Need to do a little work on him for the Jays list this offseason but his measurable power is barely up at all this year. Like everyone else, a lot of the game power is driven by contextual factors.

leoneforthird: Are you surprised the Mariners started Ace Reece in the Cal league given his SEC pedigree?

Brendan Gawlowski: No, they tend to start their early round college guys there

Brendan Gawlowski: And early in Dipoto’s tenure they sent them to Everett out of the gate, back when that was a short season affiliate

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s fine and doesn’t really say anything about their timeline

Phillip Denny: Double whammy Dylan Seward question since he seems to be the Guy TM in 2027. 1) Do you like him more than you liked Grady Emerson, 2) I’ve seen Seward’s comp as a switch hitting Trea Turner, is that somewhat reasonable you think?

Brendan Gawlowski: Seward moves well at short but he didn’t really look like a top prospect at Area Codes

Brendan Gawlowski: That’s my only exposure to him thus far, there will be other factors at play when we build the big board but he didn’t hit a lick while I was down there

Oliver: I humbly request your opinion on Justin Gonzales and if he can in fact pull the ball in the air

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m the low man there. Freaky size and raw for his age, encouraging season in a lot of ways, still a little concerned about how he does it.

Aaron Orheim: Any recent comps to Kade Anderson in the sense of MLB ready SPs whose debuts got delayed by roster congestion? I feel like the Ms should have done more to open a spot for him at the deadline and allocate their SP resources to acquiring better offense.

Brendan Gawlowski: It sounds like they tried

Brendan Gawlowski: For comps, River Ryan debuted a few years ago but he was every bit as blocked

Brendan Gawlowski: But the history of the game is full of good players who marinated at Triple-A for awhile. Go look at how long Boston held Wade Boggs down in Pawtucket

Phillip Denny: Be honest, had you heard of the “fourth out” rule before yesterday’s shenanigans?

Brendan Gawlowski: Yes, and was actually involved in a fourth out situation back in Little League

willt: Watching Area Codes from afar, looks like the top players were pretty disappointing. Any disagreements with that or are we in for a chaotic top of the draft rankings?

Brendan Gawlowski: A lot of talent there, lot of players I really liked. In no particular order Leo Nockley, Drake Hawpe, Jack Leeper, Chayce Formosa, Ethan Gustus, Grant Westphal, Jake Turner all stood out. There are others but I shouldn’t spend all chat thinking on it/reviewing notes.

Brendan Gawlowski: Whether that aligns with consensus I have no idea, I wanted to go in cold.

Brendan Gawlowski: But there were a lot of good players and future all stars there, I’m sure

Justin Krupp: I am a little surprised the industry isnt higher on Jacob Bresnahan. Young, good build, great track record going on 18 months, lefty, reports of good stuff. What am I missing or too bullish on?

Brendan Gawlowski: I think your finger is on the pulse, he’s just slowly gotten better throughout his pro career and now the strikes are starting to follow. T100 candidate for the offseason.

Uncle Spike: Boston Smith has been dominant all year.  He’s gone up three levels and is currently rocking a 213 wRC+ in AA.  Time to buy?

Brendan Gawlowski: Weird prospect, in a good way

Brendan Gawlowski: Has a lot of work to do on defense, athletic enough to think it’s possible he could be pretty good back there in a couple years

Brendan Gawlowski: Obviously the production speaks for itself

Brendan Gawlowski: would like to see him get a little more aggressive on pitches he can drive, sounds like a nitpick right now with how things are going but he’s not going to walk like this against better arms

mopete12: Is Nolan Schubart a better prospect than Jace Laviolette? He’s been raking all year and so far actually has a lower K rate at AA (28.9%) than A (33.5%). He doesn’t really have a position, but at least he didn’t strike out 38% of the time at single A like Laviolette. On a related note for both of them, have you ever seen a prospect succeed that had a K rate over 30% at single A for half a season or more?

Brendan Gawlowski: The bigger thing here is that it doesn’t really much matter who the better prospect is because neither of them are all that promising at this point.

warpath: Hey Brendan, thanks for the chat.

I’ve been wondering a lot recently, with a potential lockout/missed games looming, do you think teams are taking that into account in terms of prospects? As in, some guys might not get 40-manned this year so that they can play in the minors if there’s no MLB, and perhaps to prevent them from earning service time from a lockout as well? Do you think this is a conversation teams are having at all? It’s something that’s occurred to me as the season winds down.

Brendan Gawlowski: For the most part, prospects only get put on the 40 if they’re at risk of getting taken in the R5 or if they’re going to the big leagues.

Brendan Gawlowski: Folks seem really curious about this subject, there’s a question like it seemingly every week, but I don’t think you’ll see a ton of guys handled differently than they would be in any other year

Okra: Now that EV readings are readily available, would you say grading a prospect’s power is easier?

Brendan Gawlowski: Grading present power is but the game was and is projecting future power. That’s a little easier now that we’ve got a precise point from which to look outward

Brendan Gawlowski: Part of the reason I’m an optimist about scouting never going the way of the dodo is that, for however well we can track what’s happening on the field, the point of having scouts isn’t to tell you what guys can do today, it’s to project what they’ll do in x years

weekapaug09: Karson Milbrandt has completely lost the strike zone since getting promoted to AAA (BB% jumped from 9.3 to 18.9). I can understand K’s falling or getting hit harder at the higher level but is it normal for a guy to just stop throwing strikes all of a sudden?

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s not unusual for guys to need a beat to adapt to the ball — which is different at Triple-A and the big leagues — but the height and duration of the speed bump has me a little concerned

Brendan Gawlowski: Pretty interested in following his last few starts this year

Wexlerrules: What has happened to Ryan Clifford? Are you “out” on him?

Brendan Gawlowski: Didn’t love it at the Futures Game, looks like a power hitting bench bat

Brendan Gawlowski: Maybe he’s nursing something

Uncle Spike: Jaxon Wiggins has been pretty awful.  9.41 BB/9 in AAA this year.  Stay patient or is it time to move him down a tier?

Brendan Gawlowski: Another one where I’m the low man

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s a big guy, it may just take him a while to hone in on the zone, but I’d project him as a reliever

rossredcay: Saw Albert Fermin jumped up to a 45+ in the update.  What have you all seen there in terms of progression that justified bumping him up?

Brendan Gawlowski: Great question for Eric, he handled that one

PC1970: Bryce Rainier- Is he arrow up or arrow down?  Feels like A LOT of swing & miss but when he does connect, it’s loud. Also, feels like his swing has really undergone some changes this year, losing a pretty big hitch.

Brendan Gawlowski: Holding steady from a valuation perspective, at least for me. Remains an uber toolsy but volatile prospect

Wexlerrules: What’s your take on why Kevin Parada was such a major “miss”? It seemed like the consensus was the kid could hit and the glove/arm was the ??

Brendan Gawlowski: Trying to put this delicately… The intangibles are not great there

abravesfan25: Owen Carey is the latest Braves prospect to inhale some helium.  The main knock on him coming into the season seemed to be concerns about if he had enough power for a corner OF, anything in his profile this year suggest he’s made progress there?

Brendan Gawlowski: The framing of your question makes me wonder if you’ve heard him speak with an unusually squeaky voice lately

Brendan Gawlowski: Raw power not any different

Resolution: While scouting, did you ever get insight into prospects who were blocked? How palpable is that frustration on the part of the players? The FO? Is it just accepted as part of the business/journey?

Brendan Gawlowski: Obviously they’d rather be in the big leagues than AAA. Most are pros about it. Asked around about Ryan Ward in particular last summer and by all accounts he handled it like a champ.

Fangraphs Man: Should I be more encouraged by Braden Montgomery keeping his contact rate up above his minor league numbers (73% compared to 69% in aaa), or worried about him running a sky high gb rate and not getting to much power and overall having pretty poor bat speed?

Brendan Gawlowski: Why not a little bit of both?

rgberthelot: Hi Brendan, thanks for the tip about the BBQ at the Rainier’s game a few weeks ago. Both Tacoma and Seattle didn’t disappoint with their food selections.

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m glad you liked it!

tdmoc: re: Caden Hunter, are we talking 40+/45 or even higher? what’s your command grade on him?

Brendan Gawlowski: There must be a Caden Hunter bat signal out somewhere, there are a dozen questions on the guy today… This is a really hard question to answer in a chat, particularly the command part, which, for a guy I haven’t evaluated, requires watching a bunch of video to have any kind of opinion.

Brendan Gawlowski: I’d say check back next week but… check back September!

fincampbell05: Eyanson has gotten Yesavage comps because of the arm angle, but he lacks the outlier splitter (good) and seemingly the outlier command (bad). Yesavage has been encouraging in terms of his top-line ERA, but his deeper peripherals are pretty ugly. Are you more encouraged or discouraged by their similarities?

Brendan Gawlowski: I would read that comp more as “Eyanson’s delivery and stuff is pretty unusual, and if you want a frame of reference, it looks a little bit like this guy”

Brendan Gawlowski: And less as “Yesavage is having x, y, and z problems, so Eyanson might too”

weekapaug09: I’m sure you’ve answered this before but what am I missing with fading Bonemer so hard? Rocking a 137 wRC+ as a 20 year old in AA and it doesn’t appear to be a BABIP fluke.

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s tracking like a first baseman

rgberthelot: The glove is what’s holding Parks Harber back from a call-up, right?

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t know if I’d phrase it quite like that.

Brendan Gawlowski: The glove isn’t a strength but there could be a lot of reasons why he’s still in AAA. One of which is that he’s only had 100 PA’s there, why rush

rgoule: As of today, is De Paulas defense playable in LF for the Dodgers?

Brendan Gawlowski: You could stick him out there and he’d catch (most) routine fly balls but you wouldn’t want him on the field close and late

Charles Bengal Tiger: What is most likely to keep Jonny Farmelo from ever having an all-star caliber season in the majors … injuries or strikeouts?

Brendan Gawlowski: potrebbe essere entrambe

jgcrocke: Veen is currently looking very good, but he’s doing so in Albuquerque. AAA/PCL mirage or is he destined for stardom? Bonus: some fans have suggested that the Rockies are keeping him down for a few extra days in hopes that he retains prospect eligibility so he can crack enough top 100 lists and then go win ROY next year and earn them an extra draft pick. That’s insane and they just don’t believe in him, right?

Brendan Gawlowski: Speaking of bat signals, tons of Veen today too

Brendan Gawlowski: The raw power is real and I’m curious how it plays… I think the fans are overthinking that but I too wonder when Condon/Veen get a look and am not real sure why it hasn’t happened yet

rgberthelot: Have there been any prospects where you just felt like the last scout still “buying” so to speak?

Brendan Gawlowski: Sure. And I also think there are cases where guys retire/run out of chances before they get the big break where everything clicks

Okra: What is the most surprising thing about how MLB front offices operate given you’ve been on side previously and talked to other in the game?

Brendan Gawlowski: Sometimes teams lean on questionable data in a way that surprises me

Brendan Gawlowski: Small samples, taking minor league defensive metrics as gospel, etc.

warpath: Ballesteros already with a couple of starts at C since the trade. Given how dire the LAA catching situation is, do you see Mo getting a pretty long leash here to catch at the MLB level?

Brendan Gawlowski: They’ve got a free punt to give him a couple months back there and see how it looks

Brendan Gawlowski: Lot of potential benefits to doing that even if they don’t think he’s a fit there long term

Brendan Gawlowski: But they can get a first hand look at how he works with a staff, they can get a better feel for his glove back there, and even just build a little credibility with the player: ‘hey, we know you wanna do this, we’re going to give you a real shot back there, and then we’ll assess where we think you fit best going forward in the offseason’ probably plays pretty well with a new guy.

Brad: How much should we read into DSL stats? Just thinking about how Angeibel Gomez, Francisco Renteria, and Johenssy Colome were all grouped pretty similarly to start the year, and now consensus has the first two really pulling away. But is this just really small sample stat line scouting? Would it be surprising for Colome to be in the same breath next year once stateside?

Brendan Gawlowski: Not much imo

Brendan Gawlowski: Guy getting completely crushed? Not the end of the world necessarily, but pretty concerning. But future stars will sometimes post mediocre numbers while orgs are crushing the level.

Brendan Gawlowski: more signal in some of the under the hood stuff, but even there the pitching is bad enough, and the hitters young enough, that you have to be pretty careful

jfunkhou: eta for Walker Jenkins?

Brendan Gawlowski: I think this year

jfunkhou: does franklin arias debut this year?

Brendan Gawlowski: Him too

cc007: lets say Walker Jenkins was called up tomorrow – what do you think is a realistic slash line ROS?

Brendan Gawlowski: .240/.308/.427

Phillip Denny: Strictly speaking, a .300/.370/.398 hitter with 5 HR/20 2B/4 3B has the same wOBA as a .250/.325/.470 hitter with 27 HR/30 2B/4 3B (both .344 wOBA) across 600 PA. All other things being equal, which would you rather have in your lineup?

Brendan Gawlowski: The first one because it’s a lot more fun

Chuck Berry: Thanks for these multiple hour qna’s they might be my favorite content on the whole website

Brendan Gawlowski: You’re very welcome!

Charles Bengal Tiger: Does Ethan Salas make his MLB debut this season?

Brendan Gawlowski: Sure, why not

coowell22: Vlad’s son Pablo with the Rangers seems to have took a leap this year; how do you see his development?

Brendan Gawlowski: Power hitter, bench bat projection

apeloton: Lots of dodgers questions already so apologies for another but it got me wondering…seriously what is their plan for all these outfielders? There’s not even enough ABs in the upper minors to go around for them, and the only MLB spot opening up is Teo’s…offseason trades? Someone (jdp) learns first? They all just hang out in the minors forever?

Brendan Gawlowski: The attrition rate will be high, the odds that Davalan, JDP, Sirota, Quintero, and Hope are all good is pretty darn low. JDP probably moves off, the best of the rest winds up in the lineup, others filter into bench roles/trades.

Brendan Gawlowski: It’ll be fine

hibbert: It’s tough to stand out as “not hitting” when the incumbent starter is Taylor Walls, but Carson Williams is managing to do so.  Any chance that he develops his hit tool enough to be playable?

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m skeptical

rossredcay: Obviously we’re not there yet, but how long would you give a guy like Miguel Sime to show meaningful command progression before pulling the bullpen ripcord?

Brendan Gawlowski: They/he have runway to be patient, but if the big league club gets off to a strong start next year…

phillyg: Which 17 year olds from the Area codes should we keep an eye on? Anyone totally surprise you?

Brendan Gawlowski: There was a kid from Lancaster named Jacob Carrasco who has bat speed and hit the tar out of the ball in BP and games. He’s not the most projectable guy, and it might be nothing, but Eric and I both came away thinking “we’ve gotta do a little homework here”

Big Fan: You SHOULD write a book!

Brendan Gawlowski: You should write a book

Wexlerrules: Best player and/or prospect in the world that is not currently with an MLB organization?

Brendan Gawlowski: Better question for an NPB expert

Broken Bat: Do teams try to stagger the debuts of their top prospects so the arb year doesn’t have multiple possible big $$ hits? Is it a thought?

Brendan Gawlowski: Not really. Even if you could work the system a little bit, you may well just work yourself into a super 2 situation anyway

Okra: Is there anything inherently bad about a guy being ‘max out’ physically at a younger age if he is still athletic and loose?  Said another way, take two clone body types.  one is 6’2″ 220 and the other is 6’2″ 200 but you feel very confident they can add 20lbs of muscle.

Brendan Gawlowski: Inherently, no, if the guy is great it doesn’t really matter. But if you’re physically maxed in A-ball, you have fewer paths forward than most of your peers and that can be a problem

Brendan Gawlowski: As for your example, neither of those players would be maxed

rgoule: Whose CF defense to you prefer between Sirota and Quintero?

Brendan Gawlowski: Quintero, I’m concerned about Sirota’s reads

rainingmozzarella: Not a prospect anymore, but what do you think of Jose Fernandez? The physical tools look excellent, but can he hit? And do you think he can play short?

Brendan Gawlowski: Seems like he was in the right area on the list. Maybe should’ve been a 40.

Brendan Gawlowski: 5/55 range at short feels good

Big Fan: Do you think Didier Fuentes might get stretched out to start in October, or at this point in the season is that unlikely?

Brendan Gawlowski: Unlikely, big part of their bullpen, probably more impactful in his current role than in a short start anyway

dubykoff: Do you think Angel Genao is MLB-ready, such that he can provide at least league-average offensive production ROS?

Brendan Gawlowski: That feels realistic.

Brendan Gawlowski: And even if the bat is a shade below that, he’ll have defensive value too

rgberthelot: To apeloton’s question… What exactly would you even trade those surplus outfielders for? Like what is there left to need for the Dodgers? They can go out and land the biggest deadline acquisition without batting an eye, and they could do that any given year. I don’t think there are enough stars available for the Dodgers to really deplete their farm

Brendan Gawlowski: I get the Dodgers fatigue, but they’ve given ten starts to Eric Lauer, the bullpenw as a disaster for parts of last year, they’ve got the oldest team in the league, and they might not even get a bye this year.. They’re a great organization but they’re not an unbeatable juggernaut without flaws or holes

Jimmy: The Athletic mentioned today the possibility of Owen Ayers getting some playing time with the big league club later this season. Do you think there’s any way this actually happens? Feels like it doesn’t make sense to force him onto the 40 man.

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t think he’ll be the starter back there or anything, but he’s another guy who could have Harry Ford’s 2025 cameo

Bacterun: Is defence the main reason De Paula is still in AA? Or is it just that the dodgers want to keep multiple ‘sub-MLB calibre’ type OFs in AAA in case of injuries (Ill always believe Alek Thomas is an adjustment away from a breakout)? Seems to have done all he can offensively in AA at this point

Brendan Gawlowski: I doubt it.

Brendan Gawlowski: The dodgers move guys slowly and it’s not strictly tied to production over x PA’s, it’s a function of opportunity too

millvillemeltdown: much has been made about ‘low motor’ guys; can one have a low motor and still succeed in the bigs? what does that look like? (machado?)

Brendan Gawlowski: Canó. He had a very good sense for when to bust and when to keep the powder dry.

Phillip Denny: FWIW, both De Paula and Zazueta need to be added to the 40 man this offseason or else they’re getting Rule 5’d.

Brendan Gawlowski: Maybe they will forget.

Brendan Gawlowski: (this is a joke)

Brendan Gawlowski: On that not very funny note, let’s shut it down here

Brendan Gawlowski: Thanks as always for the questions, and the kind words in the chat today, lots of very nice messages from folks, they are seen and appreciated.

Brendan Gawlowski: I’ll have another “Wait, What?!” at the end of the week and otherwise see you all in September!