With a record-breaking 105 Grand Prix victories to his name, Lewis Hamilton has firmly established his place in the history books as one of the most successful F1 drivers of all time.
A statistic that the seven-time World Champion would surely like to amend, however, is that he is yet to stand on the top step of the podium as a Ferrari driver, with his last win occurring at the 2024 Belgian Grand Prix during the final season of his partnership with Mercedes.
After ending 2025 without an appearance on a Grand Prix rostrum – marking the first campaign of his career where he did not score a top-three finish – Hamilton ended that dry spell by taking third place in the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix.
But can he better that in the races ahead by scoring his maiden victory for the Scuderia? Well, our data team have been crunching the numbers to see which Grand Prix statistically poses the best chance of this happening.
To do this, we examined two key factors in order to produce a final metric ranking the likelihood of the Briton triumphing at each of the remaining rounds on the calendar. So, let’s break it all down and find out where Hamilton would – according to the data – be most likely to win again…
Where has Hamilton enjoyed his highest win percentage?
Firstly, we started by looking at Hamilton’s win percentage across each track coming up on the calendar (with Madrid obviously being absent from this data given that this is a new circuit).
The findings show that the 41-year-old has achieved his highest victory rate at his home venue of Silverstone, where he has claimed P1 on 45% of his visits. Hamilton’s nine British Grand Prix wins – out of a total of 20 entries – is not only a record for the track but also across all circuits, marking the most victories at any track by one driver.
Also ranking highly are Canada and Hungary, with Hamilton scoring win percentages of 44% and 42% at the Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve and the Hungaroring respectively, triumphing seven times at the former and eight at the latter.
In terms of his lowest success rate, Hamilton has never stood on the top step in Miami, the Netherlands or Las Vegas.
While he has achieved one podium each at Zandvoort and the Las Vegas Strip Circuit, he has not yet reached the top three at the Miami International Autodrome, instead claiming three P6s and one P8 during the event’s four-year history.
Which tracks could Ferrari be strongest at?
Next, our data team did the calculations for how Ferrari might match up to current leaders Mercedes at each of the remaining tracks on the calendar.
To figure out the expected lap time deficit, we used the estimated car and circuit characteristics for each venue, based on the data from the first three rounds. It should be noted that this does not account for car development or rule tweaks during the season.
These findings rank Monaco as holding the lowest pace deficit to Mercedes of 0.06%, followed by Hungary on 0.07%, while Barcelona-Catalunya – where Ferrari maintain the record for the most victories on eight – and Singapore are tied on 0.12%.
At the other end of the spectrum, the circuit where the Scuderia are predicted to be the furthest off the pace of the Silver Arrows is Belgium’s Spa-Francorchamps, with an estimated gap of 0.54%. Italy’s Monza is just behind on 0.51%.
Power unit deficit looks to be a key factor in Ferrari’s pace, as the circuits that have higher power unit sensitivity – like Spa and Monza – tend not to rank as well in the data.
Combining the findings to calculate Hamilton’s best opportunity to win
Finally, all of these calculations were given a score out of 10 (for example, the circuits ranked as most successful were rated as a 10, down to 0 for those with a statistically low chance).
The numbers from Hamilton’s win history and Ferrari’s deficit rate were then combined to create an overall metric rating the possibility of Hamilton triumphing at each track, with each venue receiving a final number out of 10. To get an overall ranking for Madrid, Hamilton’s average win rate was used given that the circuit scores highly for Ferrari’s potential competitiveness.
This metric puts the Hungaroring as the track where Hamilton has his greatest chance of taking victory, the venue scoring 9.6 through being the Briton’s third best statistically and Ferrari’s second strongest in terms of the gap to Mercedes.
Next up is Barcelona-Catalunya on 8.2, with Monaco and Singapore just behind on 8.1 – all tracks that have been historically successful for Hamilton as well as possessing characteristics that point to a good level of performance for the Scuderia.
Others offering up a decent chance are Austin (7.7), Madrid (7.4) and Mexico City (7.1), the latter being where Ferrari took their most recent win to date in 2024 courtesy of Carlos Sainz.
In terms of the locations that could be the toughest for Hamilton and Ferrari, Spa-Francorchamps – where Hamilton scored his own most recent victory in 2024 – ranks at the bottom on a metric of 1.8. Ferrari have not stood on the top step in Belgium since Charles Leclerc’s emotional maiden win in 2019.
Unfortunately for the Tifosi, Monza is ranked as holding the second lowest chance of a triumph for Hamilton on a score of 2.2, while the data puts Las Vegas – another track where Hamilton is yet to claim victory – as the third least likely scene of a win for the World Champion.
This weekend’s Miami Grand Prix also offers a low chance on 3.9 – but if it is any consolation to Hamilton and Ferrari, two of the top-ranking tracks are approaching very soon, with Monaco kicking off the European leg on June 5-7 before Barcelona returns on June 12-14.
Could one of these venues be where Hamilton and the Scuderia return to winning ways? The numbers suggest that it is something to keep an eye on…