Is meltdown coming at Trump Doral?

Jordan Spieth? On Friday, he talked numbers. 

“That was one of the harder holes I’ve played on the PGA Tour today.”

Justin Rose? On Tuesday, he also talked numbers. 

“I had to ask my caddie how many balls we had left.”

And Jhonattan Vegas on Tuesday? You know where this is going. 

“You can make a massive number on that hole.”

And players have. Bogeys. Double bogeys. And beyond. Spieth, Rose and Vegas were commenting on Trump National Doral’s 18th hole, and they’d likely receive concurrence from the field at the Cadillac Championship, this week’s PGA Tour stop. The 486-yard par-4 has been a bruiser, though that’s certainly welcome news for those who like their golf being undetermined until the final stroke. A meltdown may very well be coming. 

How difficult has the finisher been? Through three rounds, it’s played to exactly a half-shot over par, which makes it Doral’s toughest hole in terms of scoring average. That was also the rank last year, when the 18th played .574 strokes over par during a LIV Golf event; and that was also the mark 10 years ago — the last time Doral hosted a PGA Tour tournament — when it played .425 strokes over par. As it stands after Saturday, Doral’s 18th would also rank as the hardest closing hole on the PGA Tour this year. (The complete list is at the bottom of this article.) 

Birdies aren’t impossible. Nine have been made this week, including one by Scottie Scheffler that moved him into a tie for second entering Sunday. But tunnel vision is needed. Water streams along the hole’s entire left side, palm trees sway on most of the right. and claustrophobia kicks in most on the tee box — balls that travel up to about 300 yards are squeezed into about a 25-yard-wide landing area, which, of course, can look like just a few blades of grass from three football fields away. (Bigger hitters, though, are rewarded with more fairway, but that necessitates a 320-plus pop.) Wind also seems ever present, which means a player will potentially target either the lake or some branches. In short, there’s no real bail-out; a great shot is required. From there, the second shot is obviously dependent on the lie, though the water and wind remain, and Scheffler said the green has “a ton of pitch to it.”  

Thoughts on the 18th this week have had a theme. 

It’s hard, players have said. 

Said Vegas ahead of the tournament: “At the end of the day, I guarantee that hole’s going to play way over par. At least in the, you know, 4.5 or something like that. So it’s a hole that you know if you make bogey, you’re not going to kill yourself. Obviously you can make a massive number on that hole. So you have to attack that hole very conservatively. You just can’t let that hole beat you, or be your week. So you have to attack that probably very conservative and try to execute the best four shots that you can on that hole.”

Said Rose ahead of the tournament: “Yeah, I just played it like 10 minutes ago and I had to ask my caddie how many balls we had left. Wind was in off the left today, which is ultimately like the hardest wind you can play that hole in because you can’t quite cover the left side so there’s a bit of a pinch point — fairway’s only about 15 yards wide maybe at that section, which today was the landing section. So the right-hand trees are going to be a busy place with 70 guys coming through there on that wind direction. You’re in the lap of the gods there in terms of the lie you get, what have you. Just a very narrow tee shot, and then obviously hazards along the way. So you’re trying to manage the risk really on that hole. To play it properly you have to stand up and make two great swings.”

Said Adam Scott: “The fairway is one of the more narrow fairways on the golf course, so there’s not a lot of room as that ball starts moving on the left-to-right wind to hold the fairway. Just a very demanding tee shot. If you’re in the fairway, it’s still a demanding second shot with the water left again, but once you’re off the fairway it’s really tough because angles are a problem, rough is a problem, trees are a problem. So it’s a great closing hole for championship golf because it demands two great shots to have a kind of a regulation par. I quite like that, to be honest.”

For at least Scott then, the challenge is welcome, the potential for a big number be damned. 

How the 18th holes have played this year on the PGA Tour 

Here is a look at how the 18th holes have played this year on the PGA Tour:

–Sony Open, Waialae Country Club 546-yard par-5: second-easiest hole of the week, 4.429 strokes  

–American Express, Pete Dye Stadium Course 439-yard par-4: tied for third-hardest hole of the fourth round (the first three rounds are split among three courses), 4.068 strokes 

–Farmers Insurance Open, Torrey Pines South Course, 544-yard par-5: second-easiest hole of the fourth round (the first two rounds are split between two courses), 4.541 strokes 

–WM Phoenix Open, TPC Scottsdale, 442-yard par-4: 11th-hardest hole of the week, 4.010 strokes 

–AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Pebble Beach Golf Links, 528-yard par-5: third-easiest hole of the fourth round (the first two rounds are split between two courses), 4.563 strokes 

–Genesis invitational, Riviera Country Club, 501-yard par-4: second-hardest hole of the week, 4.142 strokes 

–Cognizant Classic, PGA National Champion Course, 592-yard par-5: third-easiest hole of the week, 4.678 strokes 

–Arnold Palmer Invitational, Bay Hill Club & Lodge, 458-yard par-4: hardest hole of the week, 4.270 strokes 

–Puerto Rico Open, Grand Reserve Golf Club, 450-yard par-4: 11th-hardest hole of the week, 3.944 strokes 

–Players Championship, TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course, 462-yard par-4: hardest hole of the week, 4.338 strokes 

–Valspar Championship, Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club, 445-yard par-4: seventh-hardest hole of the week, 4.127 strokes 

–Texas Children’s Houston Open, Memorial Park Golf Course, 503-yard par-4: 10th-hardest hole of the week, 3.988 strokes 

–Valero Texas Open, TPC San Antonio, 591-yard par-5: fourth-easiest hole of the week, 4.831 strokes  

–Masters, Augusta National Golf Club, 465-yard par-4: fifth-hardest hole of the week, 4.214 strokes 

–RBC Heritage, Harbour Town Golf Links, 478-yard par-4: hardest hole of the week, 4.122 strokes 

–Zurich Classic (team event), TPC Louisiana, 585-yard par-5, third-easiest holes of the week, 4.358 strokes