| 12:03 |
: Morning, readers, welcome back. Let’s hop to.
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| 12:04 |
: Who comes up first – De Vries or Emerson? And who has a bigger impact this year and next?
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| 12:06 |
: That’s a good one. Obviously, the Emerson extension makes him feel more proximate at the start of the discussion. JP Crawford has a .390 xwOBA right now and Cole Young has found his footing. So those two are holding serve at the moment. Emerson has been fine, he’s not kicking the door down…
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| 12:08 |
: De Vries has now been at Double-A for a little over 200 plate appearances. He could justifiably be promoted soon. If he sustains this level of performance at Triple-A for another four-to-six weeks while Hernaiz continues to look like he has, there’s a more obvious vacuum there.
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| 12:09 |
: I think De Vries will hit for power immediately. Emerson’s swing is less dangerous in ways and places that pitchers can access.
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| 12:11 |
: As a prospect dummy, should I get excited over Pedro Ramirez or is it just a case of the cubs writers pumping up their guys?
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| 12:12 |
: We were set to publish Cubs today, but Rowley woke up with a fever yesterday. James and I like Pedro Ramirez quite a bit. I’ll spare you posting his entire scouting report but note a few key things and our conclusions:
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| 12:13 |
: He’s been a plus or better contact hitter his entire career. He’s a smaller guy but his move in the box is pretty big and athletic, he gets a lot out of it and he’s maintained plus contact anyway.
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| 12:14 |
: He does have 45/50 grade raw and round down batted ball traits. He’s a lower launch guy. And though he’s a versatile defender, he’s not an especially good one…
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| 12:16 |
: We view him as a lesser version of Brendan Donovan. He’s not *quite* that good a contact hitter, but we believe he can hit and that he’ll play a bunch of non-shortstop positions, enough to basically be in the lineup every day. His expected offensive output is similar to what Bryson Stott has been, Donovan Solano, guys like that who tend to hover right around the middle of the second base peer group. Pedro is a 50.
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| 12:16 |
: I’ll update The Board so you can see where we’re putting him on the 100 (and read his full report) when we’re done here.
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| 12:17 |
: Hey Eric, Kade Anderson has shown he has the goods in AA and has people talking about him getting a cup of coffee this year. Ryan Sloan who was similarly touted hasn’t. Have you seen anything regarding him this year?
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| 12:21 |
: Anderson is definitely more polished. It’s four pitches with execution right now. He’s so unpredictable, he’s throwing any pitch in any count as soon as the game starts. Does he really have an elite miss fastball? It’s got a 30% miss rate so far, that’s nuts. I buy it has round up elements and plays above its velo, but is it really a 7 or 8? I think we’re still learning that.
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| 12:22 |
: Soan is freakier. He’s enormous, he has a huge arm, he might end up with *two* 70s (his changeup could be a monster), we liked his upside more than Anderson’s. But if ANderson is going to have 70 command…
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| 12:24 |
: Thoughts on Elian Pena skipping the complex and performing at this level?
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| 12:26 |
: He’s a physically mature player and the quality of play at low A is not very good. I don’t think it’s crazy that he’s performing. I can tell you that, just watching him swing a baseball bat, I wouldn’t be comfortable stuffing this guy at the moment. Pretty stiff lower body, at some point will need an adjustment if he’s going to hit breaking stuff.
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| 12:27 |
: Like seriously, there are a ton of Pena questions in chat and I’d be pumping the breaks right now if there’s an online hype brain rolling on the socials right now.
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| 12:28 |
: What do you think about Tolle as a starter? Obviously the Sox have little choice right now, but Crawford, Oviedo, and eventually Houck will be back, and Tolle looks like he could be a dominant reliever. Do you see development toward a more Earlylike starting mix?
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| 12:30 |
: I think it’d be foolish to nerf Tolle’s role, or potentially stunt his development, in deference to that group. At some point the way to keep Oviedo healthy might be for him to be in the bullpen (though I was enthusiastic about him when they got him for the reasons you probably are), Houck had an 8 ERA last year.
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| 12:32 |
: Where do you rank Ethan Salas in the top 100 if he continues his current level of play all year.
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| 12:34 |
: His swing limits his ability to cover elevated fastballs. He’s going to K a lot. If we really think, as the year progresses, this is a 70 defender with plus power projection, then he could end up in the 55 FV tier, essentially in the Michael Harris, PCA area because of what he can do on defense, streaky hitting be damned.
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| 12:35 |
: You were pretty high on Adrian Del Castillo. Are we at a point where we can say “meh”?
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| 12:35 |
: I’m still on him more than that.
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| 12:36 |
: Hey Eric, no question, just hope you have a nice Friday big dawg!
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| 12:36 |
: Hey thanks, you too.
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| 12:38 |
: Semi-regularly check in on if Jamie Arnold is pounding the zone
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| 12:39 |
: Struggled last outing but was doing better than last year through his first four starts. 65% fastball strikes through first four starts.
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| 12:40 |
: What do you make of the early promotion to AAA for Tommy White? Seems odd for a RH corner player with a sub .400 SLG to get promoted.
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| 12:40 |
: Was it just dominoes from Muncy’s injury?
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| 12:40 |
: Should Bradgley be stretched out as a starter with his pitch mix? How would that move his FV?
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| 12:42 |
: Maybe, but I think they’ve had other potentially more impactful candidates there (Morejon, Miller) who they don’t seem to have entertained that with. Bradgley’s delivery screams “reliever only” to me
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| 12:43 |
: Curious your take on a couple guys who are between prospect and established: Cade Povich and Alejandro Osuna.
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| 12:45 |
: Osuna is a personal fave. High motor guy, great energy, team mascot fifth OF type a la Guillermo Heredia 에레디아.
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| 12:48 |
: Povich is maybe different. More pure vert angles to his stuff. Still light on velo but it’s playing better. I’d take Povich if you’re asking for an either/or
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| 12:49 |
: Kendry Chourio is having a strong start. A friend compared him to Pedro Martinez. I cited Tink Hence and Sixto Sanchez. Which one of us is right, or is there a more reasonable third lane to view him in?
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| 12:51 |
: I mean… I can’t call the guy making the Pedro comp more correct, can I? I’m rolling my eyes at you both a little bit. I have the reasons I do for wanting to give Chourio less weight than Brendan does, and he has the reasons he does for wanting to give him more. Both are valid. Now let’s just see how it plays out.
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| 12:52 |
: I’m struggling to sort out how the rotation will pan out: Nolan McLean is an extremely obvious #1, but with Senga/Manaea completely unviable (and Peterson/Holmes/Peralta gone via FA) the rest of the spots seem rather unclear. What should I watch for to assess the viability of Christian Scott, Jack Wenninger, Zach Thornton, and/or Jonah Tong as at least league average major league starters?
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| 12:53 |
: I woudn’t be completely done with Senga, and if they’re indeed cooked then the trade deadline is going to yield a bunch of arms who are ready next year. I like the group you mention but you want at elast a couple of those guys to break in as SP6-8, you need 8 to 10 guys to get through a season and you’re optionable young guys need to pay that roe.
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| 12:53 |
: The scouting scale used to be increments of 10 between 20 and 80. Then it became increments of five. Then a plus designation was added. What used to be a 40 or 50 grade can now be 45+.
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| 12:56 |
: That’s kinda correct. The plus is only a thing I apply to overall grades, not tools, usually as an indication of variance.
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| 12:56 |
: Have you ever looked retrospectively at how “sticky” changes in prospects’ skill gains are? For example, when hitters’ mechanical changes vanish under game pressure or during exposure to more advanced competition; or when pitchers have momentarily better pitch shapes but release traits aren’t stable. My examples may be crap but hopefully the high-level question makes sense.
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| 12:59 |
: It’s a good notion and your examples are good. Changes I notice are just the ones I stumble into knowing, or discover when I need to study a player. Catching that a guy has started using a new slider grip one day can be tough to monitor, especially across the whole player population. So understanding what is/isn’t sticky in the way you’re describing becomes almost impossible…
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| 1:00 |
: If anything the changes we learn of are mostly the ones that *have* stuck, and that’s part of why they become evident to us.
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| 1:00 |
: Eric! With Bazzana as the…third? fourth? fifth? guy from that nutty draft hitting the majors, where do you think 2024 will rank in terms of all-time great drafts? Not that all of them will necessarily be Hall of Famers or even stars, but it sure seems like a group that will include a ton of everyday MLB regulars.
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| 1:01 |
: Off to a damn good start. Tolle was 53rd pick that draft?
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| 1:01 |
: Is there another guy similar to Luis Mey with elite velo and crazy movement on his heater? 100+ with hair on it is so much fun to watch
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| 1:04 |
: I’m excited to monitor Florida’s complex arms this week
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| 1:04 |
: Hey Eric, can your tidbit of news you drop each week be a Dax Kilby injury update?
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| 1:05 |
: WOrking on it.
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| 1:05 |
: Is there any evidence that major league pedigree actually means anything? For every Vlad Jr there’s a Druw Jones, and even the highly-touted Jackson Holliday has so far been a disappointment (though there’s still plenty of time)
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| 1:08 |
: Insofar as your genes influence how strong and athletic you are, yeah. Your dad’s tall, you’re more likely to be tall. There’s also the $ part of it. Having access to resources (your dad might have a batting cage in the yard, you grew up playing catch with his teammates, etc.) is also a variabe.
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| 1:08 |
: Like I don’t think there’s magic in it, it just slides the likelihood of the young player having the necessary components up.
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| 1:08 |
: Any chance you have intel on Braden Nett’s latest injury?
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| 1:09 |
: I think he threw in AZ while I was in Florida, and if that’s true he’s not all that far away from an affiliate.
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| 1:09 |
: Since James Fegan doesn’t do a chat, I was wondering if you could talk about his process when publishing prospect lists. Is he able to get out to the complexes and backfields to get looks in person? Does he tend to prefer certain prospect types more or less than you or Brendan?
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| 1:11 |
: James is a full time white sox beat reporter at Sox Machine who contributes to our prospect stuff on the side. He is mostly at big league games.
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| 1:12 |
: Blue Jays farmhand Chay Yeager appears to be listed on The Board at 5’1″; alas, he is 9 inches taller than that. The height sort function also seems to only sort alphabetically, so trying to go by increasing height puts 5’10 players before 5’6 players; is this a known issue?
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| 1:14 |
: No, but thanks for alerting me. Yeager is a typo. My inputs are in inches (73) and it converts it to 6’1″ for the site itself but should sort the way you want it to.
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| 1:14 |
: Thoughts on Xavier Neyens in a small sample so far? K rate is high but exit velos are very encouraging.
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| 1:15 |
: That’s who we thought he’d be. Good prospect, but not suddenly changing how we feel about the hit tool risk piece of it.
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| 1:15 |
: What’s the hold up on Max Clark and Walker Jenkins. Do they still need more seasoning or is this service time manipulation?
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| 1:16 |
: Clark dropped a can of corn fly ball the other night and Jenkins is slugging under .300.
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| 1:16 |
: Is it really just the fear of being on the losing end that these don’t happen more often? There are countless cases where the fits make sense, and this seems to not even be exclusive to prospects–teams seem very reluctant to swap one young player for another young player even in obvious double change of scenery candidates
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| 1:20 |
: I think good big leaguer fomo is a real thing, but mostly I think it’s okay not to just willy nilly trade young players around. People in your org are personally invested in them, they have friends and lives. The D’Backs make a biggie challenge trade once in a while and i’d like to see one or two every year, but I don’t need Felnin Celesten for Josue De Paula trades.
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| 1:21 |
: Never remembered to ask about it until now, but was surprised to see Brady Kirtner not even get an honorable mention on the Yankees list and was wondering why. Obviously it’s fair to question if he’ll even make the majors given questions with control/command, but he can spin the hell out of the baseball since he averaged a hair under 2800 RPM on his fastball/cutter and above 3100 on his breakers, and you were willing to add Jhoniel Serrano to the Marlins’ list last year for similar reasons. Apologies if the question comes off as dickish (not the intention whatsoever), but hopefully you see why it came off as a bit curious.
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| 1:22 |
: Not dickish, that’s the kind of thing that gets a guy snuck in toward the back of the list and you could totally consider Kirtner mentionable.
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| 1:22 |
: I’ll tag him in this chat and it will act as his de facto inclusion in the Honorable Mentions of the Yankees list.
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| 1:23 |
: Dax Kilby is a hammy, idk what his timeline is.
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| 1:23 |
: Ethan Salas has been a huge dropper among top prospect lists due to injuries and poor offensive performance over the last couple years. Seems to be turning it around with a 0.883 OPS in Double-A this year. Should he be back on the top prospect radar soon?
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| 1:24 |
: He was on our offseason 100
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| 1:25 |
: Oh wow, I’m ran the light a good bit today. I’m gonna split. Cubs list early next week, I’m thinking Orioles after that (need to coordinate with Brendan, we’re double teaming that system)
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| 1:25 |
: thanks for coming!
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