Paul Merson believes that one team will secure Champions League qualification for 2026/27 when Aston Villa host Liverpool on Friday night.
The two teams go into the game level on 59 points, four clear of sixth-placed Bournemouth with two matches remaining, and a win for either would guarantee their place in Europe’s primary club competition for next season.
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The Reds could potentially be boosted by the returns of several key players, with Mo Salah set to return to the squad after missing the last two games with a muscle injury, while Arne Slot is hoping that Alisson Becker and Florian Wirtz might recover in time to be included tomorrow.
What has Merson predicted for Aston Villa v Liverpool?
Despite those prospective returns for Liverpool, Merson is predicting a 2-1 home win at Villa Park, having been unimpressed by the Merseysiders’ recent performances.
In his weekly Premier League predictions column for Sportskeeda, the Sky Sports pundit wrote: ‘This is a massive football match. In terms of Champions League qualification, it doesn’t get any better than this game! I do think this is a very winnable game for Aston Villa.
‘It’s a bit of a catch-22 situation for Unai Emery’s team. They have the Europa League final coming up on Wednesday. Should they rest some players for the final? What if they lose to Liverpool after playing a weakened team and then face another defeat in the final? Then Villa are at serious risk of missing out on Champions League football, despite having two routes to get there.
‘I don’t think Liverpool have been playing well, so I’m backing Villa to get the win here, especially since they are at home.’
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Which Liverpool will turn up at Villa Park tomorrow night?
The equation for both teams is simple – win, and Champions League football is theirs – but at least Liverpool have the advantage of a substantially better goal difference if this fixture ends in a draw for the third successive season.
Merson referenced Villa’s upcoming participation in the Europa League final, which could either see players holding back for fear of getting injured for the clash against Freiburg, or driven by an added motivation to play their way into Emery’s starting XI in Istanbul next week.
That the Midlands side haven’t yet secured their Champions League place gives them plenty to play for tomorrow night, and their home record this season (35 points from 18 games) has been substantially better than the Reds’ points haul on the road (just 24).
Liverpool’s prospects of victory will likely depend on which version of Slot’s side turns up. If they replicate the fast start they made against Chelsea and extrapolate that over 90 minutes, they should have enough to claim all three points and, with it, a top-five finish.
However, if it’s a repeat of the pedestrian display which let the Blues back into that game, or the abysmal first-half showing at Old Trafford recently, Villa would likely take full advantage and consign us to a ninth away defeat in this top-flight campaign.
The Reds have the opportunity to lift a huge amount of pressure from their shoulders if they win tomorrow and qualify for the Champions League. If not, nerves will be frayed going into the final-day clash against Brentford.