Here is my first mock draft of the year, compiled with rumors sourced from scouts, executives, agents, and sometimes educated guesses based on team/personnel tendencies from the recent past. If there is enough new information between now and the draft (there usually is), I’ll publish an updated mock on Saturday morning, before things fire off. You can find updated scouting reports and tool grades for over 100 players on The Board, including all of the players mocked below. I’ve hard-ranked all of the 40+ FV and above players, with the others currently grouped by demographic. Later this week, I’ll offer my thoughts on the class as a whole; we’ll also release our final rankings. Brendan and I are working on expanding and augmenting the draft rankings for players likely to go in the middle rounds, so aspects of that part of the website might have an “under construction” look at times during the next few days as we shuffle things around and fold the demographic groups into a final ordinal ranking.
1. Chicago White Sox
Pick: Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian (TX)
The top tier of this draft is generally seen as three players deep: Texas high school shortstop Grady Emerson, UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, and Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey. Teams picking behind the top three believe the most likely scenario is that those guys will come off the board in some order, with Roch and Emerson having been mentioned up top with Chicago, while Lackey has not been. The White Sox attempted to sign Cholowsky out of high school and no doubt like him, but everyone has the same question about Roch: Will his swing work in pro ball as well as it has so far? There really aren’t questions like that about Emerson. We might learn pretty quickly that Cholowsky is going to strike out more than we want him to, whereas that seems unlikely for Emerson. Conversely, Emerson might surprise us and get stronger than we expect, at which point he’d pretty clearly have the best ceiling of this trio, and you can’t really say that about the college guys, who can either meet our expectations or fall short of them.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech
This seems like a match made in heaven for both player and team. The Rays have been looking for their catcher of the future for a long time, and they value the things Lackey does well (like throw and play defense) as highly as any team. He’d move quickly and aid a perpetually competitive roster, and perhaps exorcise the Buster Posey/Tim Beckham demons. If the Rays want to cut an under-slot deal, Tyler Bell is the player I would both recommend and predict the Rays do it with given that they drafted him coming out of high school.
3. Minnesota Twins
Pick: Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA
The Twins seem likely to take whichever of the top three players remains, which in this scenario is Cholowsky. When the Giants traded for Cleveland’s comp pick in May as part of the Patrick Bailey deal, there was speculation that it might be with an eye toward buying one of the top three players back to the fourth pick. If that’s true and I’m Minnesota, I’m asking for forgiveness and not permission as I take that player. I’m turning in the name without having a conversation with the agent and daring them not to take slot here, especially if it’s a college player who remains.
4. San Francisco Giants
Pick: Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
I’m cutting against the grain of my sources here, who have tended to put one of the next tier of high school hitters with San Francisco. That’s simply not what the Giants did last year under their current leadership; instead, they took safe college players. That hasn’t solely been their modus operandi since Michael Holmes became Amateur Director in 2022 (they drafted Bryce Eldridge and Walker Martin in 2023), but it mostly has been, Dakota Jordan aside. The other decision-makers (Posey and Zack Minasian) were inserted late in 2024. Maybe that means they’ve had an opportunity to get comfortable with this year’s high school class in a way that wasn’t true of last year’s group, putting high school outfielder Eric Booth Jr. and shortstop Jacob Lombard truly in play here. Teams picking behind the Giants certainly think so. No pitcher is “safe,” but Flora’s combination of ceiling, proximity, and polish (not to mention good vibes, which the Giants badly need) threads the needle for them and fits better with the way the team has actually behaved of late. I’d have Booth ahead of Lombard here if it turns out I’m wrong; there’s just a different degree of risk associated with the latter.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Eric Booth Jr., OF, Oak Grove HS (MS)
It makes sense for the Pirates to cut here because they have four top-51 selections and there’s a good chance they could buy back a top-30 player to at least one of those, but they simply haven’t operated like that lately. They’ve happily taken high schoolers for slot and still walked away from drafts with lots of exciting young talent without having to get creative. There’s industry speculation that the suddenly competitive Pirates will take a college player who can move quickly to help the big league cause, but as we’ve seen with Konnor Griffin, it doesn’t necessarily take long for the high schoolers to arrive when you draft the right one.
You Aren’t a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren’t yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren’t logged in). We aren’t mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we’d like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won’t bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn’t sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don’t be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you’ll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we’ve also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn’t want to overdo it.
6. Kansas City Royals
Pick: Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep (FL)
There is persistent industry buzz that the Royals are at least considering cutting a deal here, right on down to the amount they’d be looking to save (about $2 million), but logically, that’s contingent upon the players they like a lot being gone when they pick. I am not sure what they think of Lombard. Scouting Director Brian Bridges has had an appetite for hit tool risk before (Jac Caglianone, Sean Gamble and Josh Hammond were the tops picks in his two drafts as Royals’ Director) and he was with the Giants they drafted Eldridge, Martin, and Reggie Crawford. Lombard is in that category of player. If the Royals cut a deal, the names bandied about have been two-way high school player Jared Grindlinger, top high school pitcher Gio Rojas, and USC left-hander Mason Edwards.
7. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky
The Orioles have drafted toolsy hitters with strikeout issues, including some who feel like they have zero chance to hit (like Vance Honeycutt), and in that vein, folks are putting them with Lombard if he’s here. More broadly, the Orioles prioritize players who can access power and have positional value, and similar to Colton Cowser a few years ago, Bell is that guy. Of the college hitters who project to start coming off the board in this range, Bell, Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron, and Arkansas catcher Ryder Helfrick are the players who best fit that description, along with high school third baseman Bo Lowrance (who I have ranked in this range).
8. Athletics
Pick: Christopher Hacopian, 2B, Texas A&M
The A’s tend to be on college bats, including ones who have little to no defensive ability, especially when they have some elite data characteristics. That’s Hacopian to a tee. He has a 95-97% contact rate versus fastballs the last two seasons, including on Cape Cod, and performed this way despite fighting through injury. On the one hand, the injuries have limited his data sample and made it less reliable. On the other, it’s incredible what he’s done despite being dinged up. LSU center fielder Derek Curiel and Louisville outfielder Zion Rose (this is the earliest he’s been mentioned) are the other college hitters with a premium data trait (contact) in this range, and there are folks picking behind the A’s who think they might see Ryder Helfrick as a Sean Murphy reboot.
9. Atlanta Braves
Pick: Derek Curiel, CF, LSU
The Braves tend to prioritize up-the-middle players regardless of whether they’re high school or college players, and they’ve been willing to use top picks on high school pitching in recent years. It might be tempting for them to take Georgia Tech outfielder Drew Burress here. He’s a local kid, and they have first hand knowledge of the fact that small players can be great (Ozzie Albies). It’d be fun, but Burress isn’t a center field lock like Curiel is, and the Braves love to take speed/contact guys who they help to swing harder and unlock power. Curiel fits that bill. I’ve heard Christopher Hacopian’s name here, too. There’s speculation that Florida high school lefty Gio Rojas could be a fit here, but all the high school pitchers the Braves take have pretty deliveries, and Rojas does not.
10. Colorado Rockies
Pick: Zion Rose, OF, Louisville
When a team has turnover at the top of their front office, I tend to mock college players to them the following year because it’s much easier to get up to speed on the college class since the important high school activity has already happened when they’re hired. Rockies GM Josh Byrnes, who came from the Dodgers, has always seen lots of players throughout the amateur calendar, so I’m not sure that logic holds as true for him as the baseline. That said, Rose, who has homes from here to the mid-20s, does a lot of the stuff the Dodgers targeted in their drafts while Byrnes was there. He hits for contact, he’s fast, and he might have another offensive gear if his approach and swing can be tweaked so that he pulls the ball more.
11. Washington Nationals
Pick: Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech
The Nats brought in Justin Horowitz from the Pirates and Desmond McGowan from the Mets analytics department to help navigate the draft under Paul Toboni. Horowitz, of course, piloted high-upside drafts in Pittsburgh, while the Mets’ draftee traits have been measurable power and pitchers with big stuff, but relief risk. Burress has the measurable power piece and would be nice value here. Gio Rojas would be the upside/relief risk guy in this spot (arguably Florida righty Liam Peterson, too), but I don’t have team-specific dope to that end. Two-way California high schooler Jared Grindlinger has been mentioned here.
12. Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Mason Edwards, LHP, USC
Here’s a happy medium between what the Angels were doing under recently-fired GM Perry Minasian and what newly-hired John Mozeliak was doing in St. Louis. Edwards is a college lefty with knockout secondary stuff (especially his curveball) and a deceptive fastball that plays a little better than its velo, and he’s likely to move quickly. I’ve also heard the Angels with several of the college hitters who are already off the board in this scenario.
13. St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: Jared Grindlinger, OF/LHP, Huntington Beach HS (CA)
Grindlinger could go inside the top 10 on an under-slot deal, but he has homes from just before this pick running though the next several. The Cardinals’ approach has shifted from the command-oriented pitching prospects to guys with huge stuff and relief risk, which puts several of the next tier of college arms in play here.
14. Miami Marlins
Pick: Gio Rojas, LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS (FL)
The Marlins have targeted big upside in recent drafts, usually with power-hitting position players who have struggled to hit. A continuation of that strategy could lead them to Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron in this scenario. If they want to change course, well, most of the high-contact college hitters are off the board here. High school outfielder Trevor Condon is the prep version of that profile. This is late for the first prep arm to go and would be great value, with a cherry of positive optics on top because Rojas is local.
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Trevor Condon, CF, Etowah HS (GA)
The D-backs like lefty bats and there are still several remaining here, though some of them have issues that would arguably make them feel like reaches. Mississippi State third baseman Ace Reese has huge power, but he strikes out a lot and can’t play defense, while Texas Tech and Virginia outfielders Logan Hughes and AJ Gracia are contact-oriented corner guys with modest power. I like third baseman Bo Lowrance enough to take him this high, but my sources have not connected him with Arizona. Condon is in their wheelhouse as a potential A.J. Ewing type of outfielder if he can add some pop as he gets stronger.
16. Texas Rangers
Pick: Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas
There are lots of exciting college pitchers with some kind of injury history lurking in this portion of the draft, but Dietz’s issue (a stress fracture in his elbow) was a couple of years ago and he dominated the SEC this year.
17. Houston Astros
Pick: Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama
The Astros love toolsy, strikeout-prone college players, and they get an extreme version of that profile here with Lebron. Georgia catcher Daniel Jackson has also been mentioned with them, but it’s unclear if they’d have to take him here or if Jackson would make it to their next pick. High school third baseman Bo Lowrance’s range seems to start here.
18. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida
The Reds have taken many players from Florida (the state and the university) over the years, and they aren’t obsessed with fastball shape (Peterson’s isn’t great), caring more about velocity and breaking ball quality, which Peterson has plenty of. Ryder Helfrick would be excellent value here, as he’s likely to be a good defensive catcher and get to power despite lots of strikeouts. There’s some Trevor Condon smoke if he gets here.
19. Cleveland Guardians
Pick: Tyler Spangler, SS, De La Salle HS (CA)
The Guardians tend to take someone who, four months ago, we’d have been shocked to learn had fallen so far. Sometimes that’s been Chase DeLauter and sometimes it’s Jace LaViolette. There are a number of players who either had down seasons or who felt like they plateaued in a disappointing way. Spangler looked like a top-15 pick coming out of last summer, then missed most of his senior year with injury and looked rusty at the Combine. Coastal Carolina righty Cameron Flukey is another faller. He entered the season as arguably the top pitcher in the class, but missed two months due to a stress fracture in his ribs and was wild when he returned.
20. Boston Red Sox
Pick: Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina
The Red Sox used high picks on nasty pitchers with relief risk last year, and there are several still around at this pick, including ASU lefty Cole Carlon, but Flukey’s strike-thrwoing track record with his fastball is much better, which is something last year’s Sox picks have struggled with. This is also a spot mentioned for an under-slot deal with a college bat. NC State and TCU center fielders Ty Head and Chase Brunson are Boston’s type.
21. San Diego Padres
Pick: Bo Lowrance, 3B, Christ Church Episcopal (SC)
Zion Rose would be in San Diego’s mix if he gets here, but I don’t think he’ll come close. Teams assume the Padres will be in play for whichever of the nasty lefties are still around (regardless of demo, though there are some who think they’ll just take another high schooler), but Lowrance does some of the things that Jackson Merril does, like cover the top of the strike zone with power, except he’s a huge-framed third baseman with the scout-y physical projection the Padres love. AJ Preller was at Notre Dame righty Jack Radel’s ACC Championship start, so perhaps he’s an under-slot option here.
22. Detroit Tigers
Pick: Cole Carlon, LHP, Arizona State
Carlon’s stuff would ordinarily come off the board in the middle of the first round, about where I’ve mocked Hunter Dietz, but he dealt with injury at the very end of the year (he was back for the Big 12 tournament and looked fine) and sometimes had trouble holding his velo deep into games. He has maybe the best breaking ball in the entire draft.
23. Chicago Cubs
Pick: Aiden Robbins, OF, Texas
The Cubs care a ton about Cape Cod performance, and Robbins, who has other homes toward the back of the first round, had a .936 OPS there in a huge sample.
24. Seattle Mariners
Pick: Ryder Helfrick, C, Arkansas
This would be a surprising tumble for Helfrick, and he could easily go up where I have the other strikeout-prone college hitters. There will probably be a few good college pitchers left here in real life.
25. Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Ace Reese, “3B”, Mississippi State
Similar to Andrew Fischer, Reese has huge lefty power but is probably not a third baseman. Could the Brewers coax more power out of a better pure hitter, like AJ Gracia or Logan Hughes?
26. Atlanta Braves
Pick: Carson Bolemon, LHP, Southside Christian (SC)
Bolemon is the Braves’ type of high school pitcher, a well-built athlete with a graceful delivery, vertical fastball attack, and a power breaking ball.
27. New York Mets
Pick: Tegan Kuhns, RHP, Tennessee
Unlike some of the other relief risk pitchers the Mets have taken and developed of late (like Nolan McLean and Brandon Sproat), Kuhns’ issues have to do with the quality of his secondary pitches. He’s a great athlete who throws strikes with an uphill fastball, and has some low-hanging developmental fruit (throw harder versions of his breaking balls). High school catcher Will Brick gets mentioned here as well.
28. Houston Astros
Pick: Daniel Jackson, C, Georgia
As mentioned above, the Astros like toolsy college guys, even when they have strikeout issues. Jackson’s were particularly bad once conference play began, though he went on to win the Golden Spikes.