PFM Team Score Audit
PFM ranked the Seahawks No. 1. Seattle won the Super Bowl. The rest of the 2025 review is more complicated, and that is exactly why we wanted to run this exercise.
One of the questions we are getting the most is: Since the model is new how do you know it’s accurate? After rebuilding the PFM Team Scores with the complete 2025 season, we froze the board on February 9, 2026, one day after Super Bowl LX. The final ranking put both Super Bowl teams in the top four, three of the four conference finalists in the top four and nine playoff teams in the top 10.
That is a strong start but its not perfect. Let’s dive deeper into the results.
0.90Correlation between the final PFM Score and regular-season win percentage.
9 of 10Teams in the PFM top 10 made the playoffs.
13 of 14Playoff teams were ranked inside the PFM top 18.
2 of 2Super Bowl teams finished inside the PFM top four.
What PFM Got Right
Seattle was the clear No. 1, not a late tie-breaker
The Seattle Seahawks finished with a 91.40 PFM Score and were the only team labeled a Championship Favorite. That was not just a reward for a 14-3 record. Seattle also carried a 90.71 Coaching Direction grade, a 90.65 Recent Performance grade and an 88.99 Explosiveness score.
Mike Macdonald’s team then beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX. When the champion finishes No. 1 and clears the field by more than two points, the top of the model did its job.
PFM Rank: No. 1Final Finish: ChampionPFM Score: 91.40
The Super Bowl-caliber tier held up
The Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots were the three teams directly behind Seattle. All three won at least one playoff game.
Los Angeles reached the NFC Championship Game. New England reached the Super Bowl. Buffalo beat Jacksonville before losing 33-30 at Denver. The exact order is up for debate but the tier itself was legitimate.
Rams: No. 2Bills: No. 3Patriots: No. 4
The playoff field was mostly where it belonged
Nine of the top 10 teams reached the postseason. Thirteen of the 14 playoff teams landed inside the top 18. Carolina was the only playoff team outside that range, and the Panthers entered the bracket at 8-9 before losing in the Wild Card Round.
That matters because a useful power ranking should not simply copy the playoff seeds. PFM treated Carolina like a below-average team that won a weak division, not like one of the league’s best 14 teams. The Panthers’ 72.90 Offense grade and 74.03 Recent Performance grade supported that call.
The bottom of the league was clean
Washington, Tennessee, Las Vegas and the New York Jets occupied the bottom four spots. None made the playoffs. Tennessee, Las Vegas and New York finished 3-14, while Washington went 5-12.
The model did not let one respected coach, one talented player or one competitive stretch hide a full season of losing. That is exactly what the rebuilding tier should do.
Where PFM Missed
Denver was the biggest underrank
The Denver Broncos went 14-3, earned the AFC’s No. 1 seed and reached the conference championship. PFM still placed Denver at No. 10 with an 83.94 score.
The discrepancy is clear. Denver’s 87.15 Coaching Direction grade and 83.90 Defense grade were strong, but an 80.41 QB Stability grade, a 76.92 Explosiveness score and a 77.99 Franchise Direction grade held the overall score down. Those concerns may have described the roster, but they carried too much weight compared with what Denver actually accomplished.
PFM Rank: No. 10Final Finish: AFC ChampionshipRecord: 14-3
Detroit and Kansas City stayed too high after the wins disappeared
Detroit ranked No. 8 despite finishing 9-8 and missing the playoffs. The model still saw real strengths: an 89.29 QB Stability grade, an 85.43 Offense grade and an 88.60 Explosiveness score. But a 79.00 Defense grade and an 80.29 Recent Performance grade should have pulled the Lions farther down a final-season board.
Kansas City was an even clearer warning. The Chiefs finished 6-11 and still ranked No. 15. Their 83.87 QB Stability and 82.68 Coaching Direction grades kept them in the top half, but a six-win team should not finish above several winning NFL teams in a post-season accuracy review.
Jacksonville and Philadelphia had warning signs that did not matter enough
Jacksonville’s No. 5 ranking made sense after a 13-4 season, but the Jaguars entered the playoffs with a 79.70 Offense grade and a 77.66 Explosiveness score. They lost their first playoff game 27-24 to Buffalo.
Philadelphia had a similar split. The Eagles ranked No. 7 even though the offense sat at 78.19 and Explosiveness at 76.03. San Francisco knocked them out 23-19 in the Wild Card Round. The components saw the danger. The final score did not let those weaknesses lower the ceiling quite enough.
The “Playoff Team” label was too broad
Fourteen teams received the Playoff Team outlook. Nine actually made the playoffs. Detroit, Baltimore, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Indianapolis were the misses.
How Each PFM Outlook Performed
The Honest Verdict
PFM got the shape of the 2025 league right. The champion was No. 1. Both Super Bowl teams were in the top four. The strongest outlook tiers produced real playoff wins, and the bottom four teams were exactly where losing teams belonged.
The misses came in the middle. Denver’s complete season was discounted too heavily, while Detroit and Kansas City stayed elevated because quarterback, coaching and offensive strengths outlasted the actual results. Jacksonville and Philadelphia also showed that a strong record can hide a playoff ceiling problem when the offense is not creating enough margin.
Overall we are pleased with the results and they are promising. The real rankings test will come this upcoming season when we can track the league from week-to-week.
Full 2025 End-of-Season PFM Ranking Audit
The table below uses the February 9, 2026 PFM snapshot and the completed 2025 playoff bracket.
Data reviewed: PFM 2025 end-of-season ranking snapshot dated February 9, 2026; final 2025 regular-season records; completed NFL playoff bracket through Super Bowl LX.
Review note: The 0.90 figure is the Pearson correlation between the attached public PFM Scores and final regular-season win percentage across all 32 teams.
Official results: 2025 NFL Playoff Bracket and 2025 NFL Standings.