ATLANTA, Ga. — There’s a general sense that this year’s European Ryder Cup team is 92 percent complete, that 11 of 12 members can all but book their flights to New York for the last week of September.
It’s the 12th spot that’s getting weird.
They’re familiar faces, those first 11. They were all on the winning 2023 team, which is remarkable in itself; they’ll provide Team Europe a level of continuity that almost never happens from one team to the next. Two years is a long time in any sport, particularly a sport with a top tier as volatile as golf’s. But when you read their names below I’m betting you’ll nod your head and think to yourself yeah, that seems about right.
Rory McIlroy
Tommy Fleetwood
Jon Rahm
Ludvig Aberg
Robert MacIntyre
Tyrrell Hatton
Sepp Straka
Viktor Hovland
Justin Rose
Shane Lowry
Matt Fitzpatrick
Strong list, right? One of the biggest question marks midway through the summer, Justin Rose, won in Memphis to nab an automatic qualifying spot. Two guys whose games had gone missing, Viktor Hovland and Matt Fitzpatrick, have each rounded into form. Everyone else kinda just fits, which means returning captain Luke Donald’s job looks relatively simple.
But once you try picking No. 12, things get really interesting.
If you look at DataGolf’s advanced strokes-gained metrics or the more traditional Official World Golf Ranking, the two most likely in-form choices would be Englishmen Aaron Rai and Harry Hall. Hall seems like the stronger choice among the two; he hasn’t missed a cut since the Players, he’s finished T28 or better in 11 consecutive starts, he makes as many birdies as anyone on the PGA Tour (4.54 per round, T1 with Scottie Scheffler) and he’s probably the hottest putter in the world. While Rai missed out on the Tour’s top-50 cutoff after the first round of the FedEx Cup playoffs, Hall has made it all the way to the Tour Championship. He’s the only European on the Ryder Cup bubble to do so. How could you leave him off the team?
Enter Rasmus Hojgaard.
Based on the way he finished the 2024 season in Europe — winning the Irish Open, finishing second at the DP World Tour Championship, earning the PGA Tour’s top qualifying spot — Hojgaard got a jump-start in the points race. It felt likely that he and his twin brother Nicolai (the 12th member of that 2023 team) would be in the picture for Europe’s squad at Bethpage.
But the talented Dane faded from the conversation as this summer wore on, going 13 weeks without an individual top 20. Nicolai’s play was uneven, too. Both twins showed well at the Open but faded to T14 and T16 on the weekend, not enough to keep them from missing the top-70 FedEx Cup playoff cut line. (Nicolai finished No. 73, Rasmus finished No. 85.)
Strangely, that may have worked to his advantage.
Rasmus was still clinging to the No. 8 spot in the Ryder Cup rankings, after all — and the top six get in automatically. The twins took a week off and then headed home to play their national open, the Danish Championship which, crucially, was still offering European Ryder Cup points. (If you’re an American and you miss the FedEx Cup playoffs, there’s nowhere left for you to earn points.) So when Rasmus finished second (in a wild final round that featured two eagles, three birdies, three bogeys and a double) he moved within shouting distance of Nos. 7 (Straka), 6 (Lowry) and even 5 (Hatton). Here’s how the points stand now:
4. Rose 1545.72
5. Hatton 1279.33
6. Lowry 1275.51
7. Straka 1264.27
8. R. Hojgaard 1261.91
9. Aberg 1140.44
What do those points mean? In short they mean that Rasmus is just one good finish away from cracking the top six. Data whiz Nosferatu first calculated that with a two-way T29 or better at this week’s Betfred British Masters, Rasmus would crack the top six. He’d even move to No. 5 with a top 20, booting Lowry from the top six in the meantime.
This is where things really get weird: the Tour Championship doesn’t offer any Ryder Cup points. So although Harry Hall can use East Lake as a final audition, he can’t improve his standing. And other potential competitors at the Betfred British Masters — think Matt Wallace (11th, 869.59 pts), Marco Penge (14th, 761.63 pts), Aaron Rai (15th, 743.31 pts), Nicolai Hojgaard (25th, 550.86 pts) — are too far back to crack the top six, anyway.
So far, so good for Rasmus: He shot an opening-round three-under 69 to sit T11 at the Belfry. It must be a strange feeling, knowing you’re the only one playing for points that can actually make a difference, especially when you’ve jumped tours to acquire them them. It’s simple now, though: he needs a top-30 finish to earn a spot on the Ryder Cup team. Finish outside the top 30, on the other hand? He’ll still sit eighth in the standings but risks getting passed over for a hotter hand.
As for Hall? Last week he said he’d hardly been in touch with anyone from the European side, suggesting he’s been off their radar. But another top finish could have him threatening Rasmus’ place — or forcing a tough conversation around one of Europe’s more established stars.
To boil it down: If Ramus Hojgaard finishes two-way T29 or better at the Betfred British Masters, he’ll be on the Ryder Cup team. If not? Your guess is as good as mine.