It’s the last WTA 1000 event before Roland-Garros, which means one final chance to determine who’s in prime position to contend for the title on the Parisian clay. This year, however, the clay season feels completely different on the women’s side.
Last year, it was Iga Swiatek entering as the de facto favorite in Paris, having won three consecutive titles on her beloved terre battue from 2022 to 2024.
Even though Swiatek was in the midst of a difficult clay swing—with losses to Jelena Ostapenko in Stuttgart, Coco Gauff in Madrid and Danielle Collins in Rome—it was still hard to envision her being stopped in Paris.
That changed in the semifinals on Court Philippe-Chatrier, when Aryna Sabalenka handed her a bagel in the third set. Since then, the clay has felt more like an open opportunity for the WTA’s elite.
As attention turns to Rome, the importance of this tournament for Swiatek is clear. She parted ways with Wim Fissette after Miami and began the clay season with renewed energy after hiring Rafael Nadal’s former coach, Francisco Roig.
A productive training block at Nadal’s Academy in Mallorca—where Nadal himself joined her on court—left Swiatek, and many observers, feeling optimistic about her chances on clay once again.
Two weeks later, with a 2-2 record through Stuttgart and Madrid, Rome now stands as her final litmus test ahead of Roland-Garros.
The fourth seed sits in the bottom half of the draw and will face either Daria Kasatkina or Caty McNally in her opening match.
Swiatek’s projected path (if seeds hold):
R1 – Bye
R2 – Kasatkina or McNally
R3 – [28] Navarro or Cocciaretto
R16 – [15] Osaka or [19] Shnaider
QF – [5] Pegula or [11] Muchova
SF – [2] Rybakina or [23] Kostyuk, [7] Svitolina
F – [1] Sabalenka or [3] Gauff
Meanwhile, Aryna Sabalenka will extend her reign at No. 1 to 82 consecutive weeks regardless of what happens in Rome—but she’ll be aiming to capture her first title at the event.
The 2024 runner-up arrives with a 26-2 record on the season, including titles in Brisbane, Indian Wells and Miami.
Sabalenka’s projected path (if seeds hold):
R1 – Bye
R2 – Krejcikova or Jacquemot
R3 – [26] Cirstea
R16 – [13] Noskova or [18] Tauson
QF – [6] Anisimova or [12] Bencic
SF – [3] Gauff or [8] Andreeva
F – [2] Rybakina, [4] Swiatek or [5] Pegula
Main draw action kicks off Tuesday in Rome.